ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[catskillfire51]

I'm not a Met so I can't really answer that question. Stick to local meteorologists and the NHC. But it never hurts to be prepared early on if the track shifts.

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Always prepared here - just a gut feeling that Laura will follow Marco into TX and leave LA alone. Again, just a gut feeling.

06Z GFS Landfalls almost over Houston, Texas, WXman57 heads up

Just south, more Sargent area, just North of Matagorda Bay and South of Freeport/Brazos River

[Weatherboy1]

I’m watching closely to see if we get a center reformation/“jump” north of PR or Hispaniola. Some modeling has hinted at that and it is entirely possible considering Laura is not a super-organized or high-end system. Would have a big impact on ultimate path/strength if so

[gfsperpendicular]

I’m watching closely to see if we get a center reformation/“jump” north of PR or Hispaniola. Some modeling has hinted at that and it is entirely possible considering Laura is not a super-organized or high-end system. Would have a big impact on ultimate path/strength if so

Yeah I'm glad we have radar instead of just going off sat for this

[Jr0d]

While the HWRF has performed very well with Laura, I am not sure if I am buying into the center reforming tonight given that it finally looks like it has established a LLC on radar.

Tough to bet against the HWRF though, at least for the short term.

[Cat5James]

While the HWRF has performed very well with Laura, I am not sure if I am buying into the center reforming tonight given that it finally looks like it has established a LLC on radar.

Tough to bet against the HWRF though, at least for the short term.

The LLC is still seperated from the mid level circulation, so it is certainly possible... I'm not seeing any evidence of it taking place yet, however.

[Weatherboy1]

Watching that area of convection firing at the eastern tip of PR right now. Curious to see if it intensifies and/or signals where a more established LLC could be firing up. Still a lot of questions with this one

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297150633137639431

[Cat5James]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297150633137639431

If the low level circulation is truly in that location this system might actually go north of the islands after all... should be fun to watch today

[Ken711]

8:00 AM AST Sat Aug 22
Location: 17.7°N 66.0°W
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[MississippiWx]

I make a motion for Laura to be renamed Polo since both storms will be in the Gulf at the same time. As soon as one of them goes on land, someone has to call “fish out of water!”

[NDG]

I agree with everyone who is saying the LLC is over eastern PR, clearly shown on radar loop and surface reports, is dancing around the Island like the HWRF persistently showed in doing.

[eastcoastFL]

18Z HWRF very close to right now IR presentation. Well done, HWRF.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082118/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png

Pretty much spot on right now. Continuing to impress. Still hoping it’s wrong On the end game

[MississippiWx]

I agree with everyone who is saying the LLC is over eastern PR, clearly shown on radar loop and surface reports, is dancing around the Island like the HWRF persistently showed in doing.

https://i.imgur.com/rEL47FS.png

I think it’s more likely that the mid-level circulation and convection will fade and the actual center will form convection with it later. However, if the mid-level one takes over, then an Island cruise is in the cards for sure.

[jlauderdal]

I’m watching closely to see if we get a center reformation/“jump” north of PR or Hispaniola. Some modeling has hinted at that and it is entirely possible considering Laura is not a super-organized or high-end system. Would have a big impact on ultimate path/strength if so

Yeah I'm glad we have radar instead of just going off sat for this

Goes 16 not good enough for that?

[Cat5James]

Extremely impressed with the HWRF thus far... has had the best handle on this system of all models for a while now.

[NDG]

More proof that the LLC is on the NE tip of the Island.

[northjaxpro]

Extremely impressed with the HWRF thus far... has had the best handle on this system of all models for a while now.

Indeed it has.The next 48 hours are going to be very interesting to see how we get any significant Binary interaction with Marco, which is intensifying currently in the Yucatan Channel and Laura . If the HWRF continues its good presentation of Laura, it could be quite a fascinating medium term with both cyclones.

[eastcoastFL]

After PR HWRF says it gets sloppy again for a little bit



Then messier after Hispaniola




It doesn’t actually start firing on all cylinders until it reaches the keys

[lhpfish]

Is it possible a stronger Marco influences Laura to move further East? Is it out of the question this could still come into south Florida?

[eastcoastFL]

Is it possible a stronger Marco influences Laura to move further East? Is it out of the question this could still come into south Florida?

I’d say there’s still a small threat to extreme south Florida like homestead south. We will know more in the next 12 hours