ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

That's weird, don't they usually say what they're going to be called? Maybe they don't know yet?

I guess they are just waiting for the pass to decide PTC or TS. but yeah usually they do say what it will be

[tropicwatch]

Last report they were at about 1000 feet.

[Aric Dunn]

Last report they were at about 1000 feet.

yeah and already nnw winds.

[tropicwatch]

NHC will initiate advisories on the low pressure area south of Jamaica at 11 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

[tailgater]

Last report they were at about 1000 feet.

yeah and already nnw winds.

so if they do find a CoC it’s likely at or north of 17N

[Syx6sic]

Last report they were at about 1000 feet.

yeah and already nnw winds.

Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 14:37 UTC Sep 01, 2020:
Aircraft Position: 16.93°N 78.17°W
Bearing: 117° at 259 kt
Altitude: 302 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 13 kt at 338°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1011.2 mb

[Aric Dunn]

NW winds.

looks like we will have Nana.

unlikely we dont have west winds with solid NW winds.

[GCANE]

This could blow up in a few hours as it advances into the theta-e ridge to the west.
Already seeing heavy convection firing in advance west of the CoC as it enters the ridge.
Looks like infeed, SE of the CoC, is quickly gaining angular momentum.

[Aric Dunn]

Right where it should be.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Yeah, this is Nana at 11. They are finding winds close to wnw in the last pass

[ScottNAtlanta]

Right where it should be.

https://i.ibb.co/1Q3mhnb/Capture.png

Isn't it nice when that happens. When things are actually where they should be

[tropicwatch]

Have to see the winds, might be only TD but I think they will find them.

[NDG]

Wow, it does appear to have a closed circulation. West winds found.

44730 1626N 07754W 9769 00298 0111 +222 +222 313018 020 /// /// 03
144800 1625N 07753W 9771 00295 0111 +220 +220 318019 020 /// /// 03
144830 1623N 07752W 9764 00300 0110 +220 +220 314018 019 /// /// 03
144900 1622N 07751W 9771 00294 0108 +218 +218 310019 020 /// /// 03
144930 1621N 07750W 9770 00294 0108 +217 //// 307019 020 /// /// 05
145000 1619N 07749W 9770 00294 0107 +218 //// 301021 022 /// /// 05
145030 1618N 07747W 9771 00291 0105 +219 //// 292024 025 /// /// 05
145100 1617N 07746W 9771 00292 0105 +223 +223 292028 030 /// /// 03
145130 1616N 07744W 9774 00287 0104 +221 +221 289029 031 /// /// 03
145200 1616N 07742W 9768 00293 0103 +218 +218 282031 032 /// /// 03
145230 1615N 07741W 9776 00285 0103 +215 +215 277029 031 /// /// 03
145300 1614N 07739W 9767 00292 0102 +214 //// 278028 029 /// /// 05
145330 1613N 07738W 9774 00287 0103 +213 +213 271025 027 /// /// 03
145400 1612N 07736W 9765 00295 0104 +212 +212 270025 026 /// /// 03
145430 1612N 07734W 9771 00290 0105 +212 +212 269026 027 /// /// 03
145500 1611N 07733W 9770 00293 0107 +213 +213 277023 027 /// /// 03
145530 1610N 07731W 9768 00294 0107 +213 +213 284023 023 /// /// 03
145600 1609N 07730W 9774 00291 0108 +211 +211 280022 024 /// /// 03
145630 1608N 07728W 9764 00301 0108 +216 //// 281017 021 /// /// 05
145700 1607N 07727W 9770 00296 0108 +215 //// 260015 018 /// /// 05
$$

[Aric Dunn]

why would the NHC not wait 5 minutes for recon to finish the pass lol..

so weird.

[NDG]

why would the NHC not wait 5 minutes for recon to finish the pass lol..

so weird.

I'm sure they will put out a special statement.

[Aric Dunn]

why would the NHC not wait 5 minutes for recon to finish the pass lol..

so weird.

I'm sure they will put out a special statement.

I would hope so.. likely been closed for awhile.

west winds are 25 to 30 kts.

[Frank2]

In their TCD NHC based the wind speed on an ob from ship MAOR4 - this is the vessel:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/de ... SH_SPONSOR

[HurricaneEnzo]

why would the NHC not wait 5 minutes for recon to finish the pass lol..

so weird.

I'm sure they will put out a special statement.

I would hope so.. likely been closed for awhile.

west winds are 25 to 30 kts.

https://i.ibb.co/j4FTrTJ/Capture.png

ASCAT probably still showing a tropical wave This season has definitely made me look at ASCAT diffrently. I know nobody ever said it is 100% definitive but I have more doubt in it this year than in previous years. Obviously just an opinion but I feel like if we had recon yesterday they would have been able to close this off. You could clearly see a lot of low level vorticity that wasn't being represented in the ASCAT passes. I think this storms fast movement is partly to blame.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm sure they will put out a special statement.

I would hope so.. likely been closed for awhile.

west winds are 25 to 30 kts.

https://i.ibb.co/j4FTrTJ/Capture.png

ASCAT probably still showing a tropical wave This season has definitely made me look at ASCAT diffrently. I know nobody ever said it is 100% definitive but I have more doubt in it this year than in previous years. Obviously just an opinion but I feel like if we had recon yesterday they would have been able to close this off. You could clearly see a lot of low level vorticity that wasn't being represented in the ASCAT passes. I think this storms fast movement is partly to blame.

Well ASCAT is coming up soon.. and I would not doubt it is showing an open wave.

it has likely been closed since last evening when the sustained convection begin.

recon finding west winds of 25 to 30 kts with a system moving west at 15kts is not something that happens fast.

meaning it likely closed off awhile ago.

[NDG]

Yep, is a closed circulation, now they they just have to fix the CoC., lol.

URNT15 KNHC 011506
AF307 01FFA INVEST HDOB 26 20200901
145730 1607N 07725W 9774 00294 0111 +218 //// 239015 016 /// /// 05
145800 1606N 07724W 9773 00296 0110 +221 +216 220015 016 /// /// 03
145830 1605N 07722W 9769 00299 0109 +229 +207 229015 016 /// /// 03
145900 1605N 07721W 9771 00299 //// +221 //// 231013 015 /// /// 05
145930 1604N 07719W 9770 00299 0109 +224 +216 235014 015 /// /// 03
150000 1603N 07718W 9770 00298 0109 +233 +212 238014 015 /// /// 03
150030 1602N 07716W 9774 00297 0111 +230 +218 224013 014 /// /// 03
150100 1602N 07715W 9770 00301 0112 +226 +218 215011 013 /// /// 05
150130 1601N 07714W 9777 00296 0113 +223 +222 214006 010 /// /// 05
150200 1559N 07714W 9758 00311 //// +220 //// 204003 004 /// /// 05
150230 1559N 07712W 9762 00309 //// +223 //// 200007 008 /// /// 05
150300 1600N 07711W 9772 00302 //// +220 //// 184006 007 /// /// 05
150330 1601N 07710W 9772 00300 0114 +224 +219 197006 006 /// /// 03
150400 1602N 07709W 9771 00302 0114 +223 +217 168006 007 /// /// 03
150430 1603N 07708W 9768 00305 0115 +225 +215 165008 009 /// /// 03
150500 1605N 07706W 9773 00301 0114 +224 +215 162008 010 /// /// 03
150530 1606N 07705W 9769 00303 0114 +225 +218 166009 010 /// /// 03
150600 1607N 07704W 9773 00300 0114 +226 +219 170010 011 /// /// 03
150630 1608N 07703W 9771 00302 0114 +224 +222 181010 011 /// /// 05
150700 1609N 07702W 9769 00303 0113 +227 +216 186012 013 017 000 01
$$