ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Very thankful to have high res and quick updating imagery to watch the fascinating little pulses and swirls in even the most struggling system. It's a great era to be tropics watching no matter the classification

[dixiebreeze]

As per so many tropical seasons, I predict (FWIW) we are likely to see a sizeable TS or 'Cane by or near the Labor Day weekend. Preparations ongoing here in West Central Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

center definitely reforming slightly to the nw under that new burst taking place.. less shear the farther north it goes.

[GCANE]

UL Jet maybe beginning to erode as it gets closer to the Anticyclone Wave Break.
UL WV imagery shows west to east motion on the northern portion of the convection.
Some motion in the middle convection.
Nothing yet in the southern convection.

[Gums]

Salute!

Is that outflow I see, CANE ?

Gums asks...

[GCANE]

Inflow from the east has quickly improved into the middle convection.
Add decreasing shear and convection to the north and west cutting off SAL.

[GCANE]

Salute!

Is that outflow I see, CANE ?

Gums asks...

Lookin better.

[abajan]

On topic: it seems as though convection is firing around the Vort max, might have a chance tomorrow if it can retain

Thank you for steering the thread back on topic. It was really going off the rails.

[DestinHurricane]

Well we’ve seen some seasons where it goes into late October. But we’ve also seen seasons where it just dies down after September. Even WXMAN mentioned, that in terms of hurricanes, he expects a normal amount, meaning not above average

IMO activity is measured in Hurricanes and majors, not TSs.

Your opinion would be discounted in every corner of the weather world. Not considering TS's as activity is probably a top 5 post I've seen here this year so far. No offense of course.

Would I be wrong for suggesting that in general short lived TS's like 95L could be have generally minimal impacts? I'm not saying I don't consider TS activity but it is certainly not as important as hurricane and major hurricane activity. Which season do you think is worse? The 24/4/2 or the 10/8/6?

If 95L forms it likely won't amount to anything significant. The SAL and Shear is too much. All i'm saying is that these storms are struggling in what is supposed to be a hyperactive season with favorable conditions.

[wxman57]

Weak center is still exposed east of the convection.

[galaxy401]

New outlook!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system is located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
more than a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Shower and
thunderstorm activity decreased somewhat this morning, but new
activity is now forming near the system's center of circulation.
If these storms persist, then advisories would likely be initiated
on a tropical depression later today or tonight. Even if a
depression does not form by tonight, environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development while the system
moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph during the next couple of
days. Conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

I've said this all along. But why is there so much talk here about a hyperactive season? IMO activity is measured in Hurricanes and majors, not TSs. An 8/6/3 season is worse than a 24/4/2 season.

What do you mean? Every expert prediction is calling for above average hurricanes and majors as well as named storms.

We were predicting a very active season in 2013, too, and not one major hurricane developed. It was quite a dud season. I would have thought that the MDR would be less hostile by now, and that waves would be making it across the Caribbean to develop in the NW Caribbean.

I remember many past seasons when it seems like there just won't be any storms developing in early August. Then, all of a sudden, activity explodes. We may see 1-3 named storms the last half of August and 6-8 in September. More sprinkled around in Oct & Nov. With predicted lower-than-average pressure in the tropics, we should see a good bit of activity. Perhaps a good bit of activity may be in the subtropics this season, with systems grazing or missing the NE Caribbean and turning out to sea (like 1995). Time will tell.

So I’m guessing you too aren’t too bullish on this season either, why is that? Not to mention you mentioned 1995 which featured many recurved East of the U.S. meanwhile several on here keep insisting that ridging will lock in place for September.

At this point I too am becoming slowly more bearish as each day passes. Not to mention all the talk earlier this season of a busier August than in previous years.

[EquusStorm]

I'm pretty sure those that lost their homes - or loved ones - in Allison, Erika, Imelda, etc. don't really care that the storm that affected them was just a weak brief tropical storm.

On topic... I wonder if dMax tonight will finally be the final push to get it to a tropical depression. Definitely trying but just not seeing surface organization juuust yet

Probably also needs one singular center instead of the old vs the possible new fighting lol

[Audrey2Katrina]

IMO activity is measured in Hurricanes and majors, not TSs.

Your opinion would be discounted in every corner of the weather world. Not considering TS's as activity is probably a top 5 post I've seen here this year so far. No offense of course.

Would I be wrong for suggesting that in general short lived TS's like 95L could be have generally minimal impacts? I'm not saying I don't consider TS activity but it is certainly not as important as hurricane and major hurricane activity. Which season do you think is worse? The 24/4/2 or the 10/8/6?

If 95L forms it likely won't amount to anything significant. The SAL and Shear is too much. All i'm saying is that these storms are struggling in what is supposed to be a hyperactive season with favorable conditions.

And you have no idea how grateful I am for it. I hope this continues so we can still talk, and follow all these powerful storms without the damage and death and disease that can follow majors. They're fascinating events of nature; but with a pandemic already plaguing the country-- we don't need a major hit on land with possibly millions of evacuations to make this awful year any worse. Take care and stay safe!

A2K

[xironman]

Multiple vorts going around a larger gyre. Could improve as the shear lets up this evening.

[Nuno]

What do you mean? Every expert prediction is calling for above average hurricanes and majors as well as named storms.

We were predicting a very active season in 2013, too, and not one major hurricane developed. It was quite a dud season. I would have thought that the MDR would be less hostile by now, and that waves would be making it across the Caribbean to develop in the NW Caribbean.

I remember many past seasons when it seems like there just won't be any storms developing in early August. Then, all of a sudden, activity explodes. We may see 1-3 named storms the last half of August and 6-8 in September. More sprinkled around in Oct & Nov. With predicted lower-than-average pressure in the tropics, we should see a good bit of activity. Perhaps a good bit of activity may be in the subtropics this season, with systems grazing or missing the NE Caribbean and turning out to sea (like 1995). Time will tell.

So I’m guessing you too aren’t too bullish on this season either, why is that? Not to mention you mentioned 1995 which featured many recurved East of the U.S. meanwhile several on here keep insisting that ridging will lock in place for September.

At this point I too am becoming slowly more bearish as each day passes. Not to mention all the talk earlier this season of a busier August than in previous years.

Not to speak on his behalf, but are 1-3 Aug storms plus 6-8 in Sep really "bearish"?

Meanwhile:

Some blowups west of the center now.

[GCANE]

3 overshooting tops in the center convection.

[bob rulz]

It's only August 11th guys, there's still plenty of time to have an active August.

I feel like people were so ready to have a 2005-esque season that they expected activity to just continue unabated for 4 straight months, but that pretty much never happens. Most seasons don't get ramping up until mid/late August. Even 2005 had a bit of a lull around this time.

And yeah I thought for sure this was on its way to being a depression this morning, but it looks much worse than it did last night. I still think it will pull through eventually though.

[Aric Dunn]

Well defined center.. despite being sheared convection is going on 24hours sustained. it should be upgraded.

[Nuno]