ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[Florida1118]

Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories, they introduced this a few years back to handle the case of rapidly developing systems near the coast. It's only used when a system is not quite a depression, but expected to be a storm before the watch/warning window is up. They only use it if they need to put up Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings before a storm has technically formed. TV Weather people tend to hate it because it confuses folks. Not to be confused with Post Tropical Cyclone, which also shares the acronym.

I still don't understand why the hurricane center decided to start using this terminology. I know that it's purpose is to help raise awareness of a storm's presence, but I think for many people, it is quite confusing.

I believe it was a response to Hurricane Sandy becoming extratropical before moving inland as well as several instances of storms developing rapidly before moving inland even though there was a trackable precursor disturbance.

Nope - that was a change made in 2013 to broaden the definition of TS and Hurricane watches and warnings: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20130404_ ... hanges.pdf

Since there's a lot of questions on PTC, this is a really good read explaining the entire background and why they chose what the did: https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2017/06/2 ... -warnings/

[EquusStorm]

Huh, didn't know it had been in development that long ago. Neat.

[ScottNAtlanta]

People who have been around long enough will tell you how fast a system can ramp up as it approaches the TX coast...remember Humberto? The shape of the coast provides natural convergence

[Craters]

Sure is quiet in here with a developing TC in the central GULF.. lol

its 6 AM!

all nighters.. come on now. this is the funnest part lol

...Said Aric, who couldn't remember the difference between a hyphen and a noun at a mere 12:30 AM last year.

[Aric Dunn]

its 6 AM!

all nighters.. come on now. this is the funnest part lol

...Said Aric, who couldn't remember the difference between a hyphen and a noun at a mere 12:30 AM last year.

it does not have to be last year or last night.. I cant remember what any puncuation is used for anymore lol

[wxman57]

Where are we thinking the watches and warnings will be setting up in LA?

I don't think any watches will be needed for the LA coast. More likely from north of Brownsville, TX to Freeport, TX. Just 20-30 mph winds along the Louisiana coas, though you could see some heavy thunderstorms on the northern edge of the squalls.

[GCANE]

Lid off - confirmed
Strong anti-cyclone just popped up over this as the 355K PV streamer has eroded between the Yucatan and FL ULL.

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying torwards 91L.

[davidiowx]

People who have been around long enough will tell you how fast a system can ramp up as it approaches the TX coast...remember Humberto? The shape of the coast provides natural convergence

You don't even have to go back that far! Harvey went from a depression to a Cat 4 in under two days. It was insane to watch it unfold on satellite.

[GCANE]

AF304 just took off

[jaguars_22]

It was also insane to watch the storm in person Harvey got mad!! This storm looks different though just by how the models are handling it

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm much more concerned with this than normal because 1. Gulf waters are extremely warm, 2. The upper level wind shear is quite favorable and decreasing further, it may eventually have a nice little anti-cyclone over the top of it, 3. It has a few days before striking land to organize.

[Stormcenter]

It is still difficult to locate a center or motion
even on visible satellite.

[Aric Dunn]

center looks to be about right here..

some fresh convection is starting to build with it as well.

[HurricaneBrain]

If your prediction of a NHC path splitting Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay verifies (which I think is a good chance) I could see watches and warnings going up the coast past Galveston. I was surprised when I saw Louisiana mentioned in the TWO though.

Where are we thinking the watches and warnings will be setting up in LA?

I don't think any watches will be needed for the LA coast. More likely from north of Brownsville, TX to Freeport, TX. Just 20-30 mph winds along the Louisiana coas, though you could see some heavy thunderstorms on the northern edge of the squalls.

[MississippiWx]

The overall circulation looks healthy enough to be classified a tropical cyclone. However, the convective structure remains messy. Recon will confirm one way or the other. It’s borderline, but feel it won’t be classified until tomorrow.

[galvestontx]

Off topic but- I have a flight out of IAH 10am Saturday. If this thing makes TS strength and hits between Corpus and Matty, You think I will make it out?

[jasons2k]

I would guess a watch up to Sabine Pass. Maybe even Morgan City.

[Aric Dunn]

I would guess a watch up to Sabine Pass. Maybe even Morgan City.

Agreed. much of the LA coast will likely get a good deal of the winds early on.

[Craters]

Man, I had zoom out on this.
Big jet of infeed from the SW where the high CAPE is.
Everything low-level on the west side is starting to turn into it.
Lid is definitely off.
When is recon getting there?

https://imgur.com/dSUFYfz

GCANE --

A question showing my ignorance, here -- do you have any idea how they get CAPE data for locations like that, out in the middle of nowhere?

Thanks...