ATL: SALLY - Models

[SoupBone]

Looks like the Euro wants it to scrape the Panhandle then head west over Alabama and Mississippi coastlines.

[gatorcane]

Euro 120 hours:

[Aric Dunn]

Stronger will turn more northerly.. so given its current trend middle panhandle is possible with a deepening system.

[Ivanhater]

3 days of a slow scrape of NW Florida to SE Lousiana

[CrazyC83]

It seems the models all want to stall this out near the coast. This could be a serious rainmaker.

[bella_may]

3 days of a slow scrape of NW Florida to SE Lousiana

With it being so close I wonder if we’ll see tropical storm watches issued for the northern gulf coast soon

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS is much more active than any prior EPS with a very slow moving TD/TS+ likely creating big problems due to very heavy rainfall centered on the coasts of MS, AL and the FL Panhandle.

Edit: the 12Z EPS has a whopping 8” of rainfall through hour 174 along parts of the coast of the FL Panhandle!

[LowerAlabamaTider]

We could use some rain now, but we definitely don't need a strong TS or possibly a hurricane.

[fwbbreeze]

I'm getting some Erin 95 vibes off this one!

PS great to be back posting!

[edu2703]

First cone is up

[LarryWx]

Danger, danger Will Robinson! Get the boats ready along the Gulf coast. This, from the 12Z EPS, is one real ugly precip map, especially considering this is from a 51 member ensemble. Hopefully this changes for the better:

[FixySLN]

Danger, danger Will Robinson! Get the boats ready along the Gulf coast. This, from the 12Z EPS, is one real ugly precip map, especially considering this is from a 51 member ensemble. Hopefully this changes for the better:

https://i.imgur.com/a6lgJQe.png

Edited because reading the word "cumulative" is something my brain refused to read for 11 seconds.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Danger, danger Will Robinson! Get the boats ready along the Gulf coast. This, from the 12Z EPS, is one real ugly precip map, especially considering this is from a 51 member ensemble. Hopefully this changes for the better:

https://i.imgur.com/a6lgJQe.png

I said we needed some rain, but that would be over doing it just a tad!

[bella_may]

This is gonna be a problem if it strengthens to a hurricane. Don’t like the direction

[BigB0882]

This is a slow mover. Ugh.

What does the NHC see that pushes this on a more westward bend towards the end? Is the ridge building in?

[Stormcenter]

Building ridge

This is a slow mover. Ugh.

What does the NHC see that pushes this on a more westward bend towards the end? Is the ridge building in?

[jasons2k]

Please keep the general discussion to the discussion thread and keep this one about models.

[Emmett_Brown]

HMON landfalls in SE FL around 9z Sat, moving WNW, exits around Charlotte Harbor. Pressure drops a couple of mb across SFL, so strengthens a little moving over land.

[BigB0882]

Wow, the GEFS is very tightly clustered on a TX landfall. Incredible. However, it stays quite weak and weakens upon landfall. Are conditions going to be less favorable in the western gulf? Seems conditions are just about perfect right up to the central gulf coast.

[kevin]

18z HWRF has its 1st landfall (in Florida) at 15 hours as a TS with 50 kts (58 mph, 93 kmh).