ATL: RENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

First off.. lets stick with the atlantic and modern realistic data..

Secondly. I was extrapolating the motion at the end of the run.. how far south and the ridging building in..

it all points to surviving long after the GFS ended.

of course it was all laughable to begin with ... but..

If you want to use a more modern example, ginger lasted 27 days in 1971, and Nadine lasted 22 days in 2012.

we can exclude Ginger.. it was part of project storm fury.

Nadine is the only notable modern verifiable satellite era TC.

Stormfury flights started after Ginger had already persisted for 16 days and was on track to continue. Anyways the hypotheses surrounding project Stormfury have been disproven on such a scale.

[Fancy1001]

First off.. lets stick with the atlantic and modern realistic data..

Secondly. I was extrapolating the motion at the end of the run.. how far south and the ridging building in..

it all points to surviving long after the GFS ended.

of course it was all laughable to begin with ... but..

If you want to use a more modern example, ginger lasted 27 days in 1971, and Nadine lasted 22 days in 2012.

we can exclude Ginger.. it was part of project storm fury.

Nadine is the only notable modern verifiable satellite era TC.

Why would you exclude ginger because of Storm fury?

[Aric Dunn]

If you want to use a more modern example, ginger lasted 27 days in 1971, and Nadine lasted 22 days in 2012.

we can exclude Ginger.. it was part of project storm fury.

Nadine is the only notable modern verifiable satellite era TC.

Stormfury flights started after Ginger had already persisted for 16 days and was on track to continue. Anyways the hypotheses surrounding project Stormfury have been disproven on such a scale.

Actually no .. Ginger was the last of storm fury.. 3 drops were conducted.

besides storm fury..

its classification early on was in question as it came from a cold core upper level system. given the poor satellite data at the time.. among many other systems

its life span as an actual TC is not entirely agreed upon..

considering there is still heavily debated modern systems with SCAT data planes and much more advanced satellite ...

modern satellite era technically started Goes 6 and later..

conversation for a different time..

[Ubuntwo]

we can exclude Ginger.. it was part of project storm fury.

Nadine is the only notable modern verifiable satellite era TC.

Stormfury flights started after Ginger had already persisted for 16 days and was on track to continue. Anyways the hypotheses surrounding project Stormfury have been disproven on such a scale.

Actually no .. Ginger was the last of storm fury.. 3 drops were conducted.

besides storm fury..

its classification early on was in question as it came from a cold core upper level system. given the poor satellite data at the time.. among many other systems

its life span as an actual TC is not entirely agreed upon..

considering there is still heavily debated modern systems with SCAT data planes and much more advanced satellite ...

modern satellite era technically started Goes 6 and later..

conversation for a different time..

You misinterpreted- I mean the first stormfury flight into Ginger was 16 days after it formed. And disputing time of genesis doesn’t have much place here.

Point is, while 93 could be quite a long track system - even the euro keeps it around for at least ten days - those records are pretty out of reach.

[Extratropical94]

Looks like 93L was renumbered to 18L (as per https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/).

AL182020 - Tropical Depression INVEST

So either TD18 or PTC18 at 5am

[Hurrilurker]

Man this one looks good already, clear circulation coming right off the African coast and firing up some vigorous convection overnight. Not sure what the shear and steering forecasts look like but I’m keeping an eye on this one early.

[us89]

And officially TD 18:

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 20.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Cabo Verde is already under a TS warning.

[ClarCari]

Absolute insanity that in 2005 TDs 17 and 18 didn’t even occur till the 2nd half of Sep

[us89]

Should also note that the NHC is calling for this to reach hurricane strength by hour 72, but there is considerable uncertainty in this given the possibility of some interaction with TD 17.

[Buck]

Looks like this might be the first named storm to directly impact Cabo Verde since Fred in 2015. Helene scooter around In 2018 but they did feel some impacts.

[aspen]

Still a TD in the 12z best track.

[aspen]

The maximum potential intensity map indicates TD18 has the possibility of becoming a Category 3 hurricane, assuming it’s able to develop a core and rapidly intensify prior to the increase in shear in a few days. The NHC says that TD18 should be in a relatively low shear, moist environment for the next 2-3 days, so I won’t rule out an earlier and stronger Hurricane Rene, maybe a Cat 2.

[ElectricStorm]

The maximum potential intensity map indicates TD18 has the possibility of becoming a Category 3 hurricane, assuming it’s able to develop a core and rapidly intensify prior to the increase in shear in a few days. The NHC says that TD18 should be in a relatively low shear, moist environment for the next 2-3 days, so I won’t rule out an earlier and stronger Hurricane Rene, maybe a Cat 2.

I guess an analogue for TD18 could be Helene 2018. Early development, relatively early recurve, cat 2 borderline cat 3 peak

[aspen]

18z best track is up to 35 kt/1001 mbar. We have Rene.

[HurricaneEnzo]

18z best track is up to 35 kt/1001 mbar. We have Rene.

This is absurd Rita in 2005 didn't form until the 18th.

[zhukm29]

This is the first time list 6 has ever reached the 'R' name, so this is also an accomplishment (beyond the fact that it's only September 7). This will be the first Rene ever since the name was first put on the modern naming lists 42 years ago. The only original 'R' name remaining that hasn't be used is Rose on list 1.

[us89]

18L EIGHTEEN 200907 1800 15.9N 21.7W ATL 35 1001

[us89]

And updated to Rene in the ATCF sector file:

18L RENE 200907 1800 15.9N 21.7W ATL 35 1001

[Beef Stew]

18z best track is up to 35 kt/1001 mbar. We have Rene.

Rene on September 7th. Incredible, really. While it's not a surprise we had genesis today (18L has looked great since 'splashdown'), the overall pacing of the season continues to amaze. If modeling is correct, Rene should finally throw some decent ACE into the mix too, and really kick off September. Now on to future Sally... the date to beat is Stan's record of October 2nd. Anyone care to bet against that?

[Kazmit]

The chances of not getting to the Greeks is little to none at this point.