ATL: LAURA - Models

[GCANE]

I forecast 86 pages of hardcore model stuff.

[toad strangler]

Not too keen on dissecting individual model runs this far out, but just for educational purposes, what is causing the euro to lift it out so dramatically? Looking at the 500mb pattern, it looks to me like the storm starts to lift north long before the trough digs down.

Don't trust it. Too far out.

Not trusting it. Just trying to understand what it depicts.

Looks to me that there is indeed a slight weakness there between two main areas areas of HP with slight trough far directly to the N. Waaala. Open trap door. Don't trust that 500 mb set up that far out though.

[tolakram]

It's extremely rare for a storm moving in that direction to not recurve. Troughs are constantly moving through and one will tend to pick it up. There are notable exceptions, Ike for one, but usually it's up and out. It could very well recurve sooner than it is now IMO, we'll have to watch as we get closer to the 'usually decent' 5 day range.

[SFLcane]

quite a range of outcomes here ....12z EPS

[DestinHurricane]

Besides Andrew when was the last time SE Florida got directly hit from a storm from the ESE? Lately is rare because the ridge stops between the Bahamas and east coast of Florida and they recurve just off our coast.

Katrina's first landfall in Fort Lauderdale was as a cat 1. Besides that you have to go back to David in 1979 which hit WPB as a cat 2. Frances and Jeanne hit the treasure coast.

[cycloneye]

SHIP goes to cat 2.

[SFLcane]

[Jr0d]

Besides Andrew when was the last time SE Florida got directly hit from a storm from the ESE? Lately is rare because the ridge stops between the Bahamas and east coast of Florida and they recurve just off our coast.

Katrina in '05... forgotten about because of what she did after Florida.

[toad strangler]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/gYKx0Cs.png

WOW! .... there will be plenty more swings for sure.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the EURO is on crack. That out to sea track would require absolute perfect precision like timing in order for that to occur.

[aspen]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/gYKx0Cs.png

And there’s another TC coming in behind it on the right.

[NDG]

Back to where we left off with Isaias, a stronger storm a more track to the right possible, but the weird thing is that the 12z Euro still builds a strong Bermuda ridge through day 6 as it tracks north or near the Antilles.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's extremely rare for a storm moving in that direction to not recurve. Troughs are constantly moving through and one will tend to pick it up. There are notable exceptions, Ike for one, but usually it's up and out. It could very well recurve sooner than it is now IMO, we'll have to watch as we get closer to the 'usually decent' 5 day range.

I think the Euro has it too far North. No wonder none of the other models agree

[AxaltaRacing24]

I think the EURO is on crack. That out to sea track would require absolute perfect precision like timing in order for that to occur.

it could also turn sooner than that. it is honestly not possible to tell 8 days out.

this is almost pure entertainment until later this week.

[WeatherEmperor]

:double:

[im://i.imgur.com/gYKx0Cs.png[/img]

Are you able to post an animated gif so we can see the ensembles in motion?


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[toad strangler]

I think the EURO is on crack. That out to sea track would require absolute perfect precision like timing in order for that to occur.

it could also turn sooner than that. it is honestly not possible to tell 8 days out.

This

[SFLcane]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/gYKx0Cs.png

WOW! .... there will be plenty more swings for sure.

Honestly Irma vibes here. Hope they get the G-IV out there late this week.

[SFLcane]

:double:

[im://i.imgur.com/gYKx0Cs.png[/url]

Are you able to post an animated gif so we can see the ensembles in motion?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sure not done yet running.

[Ubuntwo]

I think the EURO is on crack. That out to sea track would require absolute perfect precision like timing in order for that to occur.

I wouldn't be so sure. How many times has troughing been missed or underforecast a week out? I think it's too early to rule out any solutions, anything from the Mexican Gulf Coast to OTS is in play.

[SouthFLTropics]

Most of the models are in good agreement of a track into the Southern Bahamas with a strengthening cyclone by this coming weekend. However, there is one caveat to that. The normally right leaning GFS is to the left of most of the guidance. This gives me pause. Based on the most recent ensembles, I expect the GFS to come more in line and start trending stronger and more to the right. Expect a couple shifts to the right for the rest of the models before they wipe back left. In the end, I would suspect that the GFS will be the right outlier. So far it has not come to terms in recognizing that 98L is even going to be anything significant.