WPAC: BAVI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Still no latest JTWC advisory update but latest global models still strong, EPS minimum is 940mb.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZAUG2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 126.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0E, APPROXIMATELY
578 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200423Z ATMS 88GHZ IMAGE
REVEAL WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND AN ELONGATED CENTER.
A 200054Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A 10-19KT
WIND FIELD. INVEST 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; HOWEVER, ITS PROXIMITY TO
LAND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
IN VICINITY OF OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

Yes I know it's the navgem

[Hayabusa]

Plenty of untapped very hot sst there to fuel, that is if it can.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 122.6E TO 22.7N 122.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.4N 122.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.5N 122.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 202023Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS 90W TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VWS (15-20KT), AND WARM SST (30-31C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212200Z.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 210000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 210000.
WARNING VALID 220000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 20N 122E NW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

EPS minimum 931 mb.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.4N 122.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 122.5E, APPROXIMATELY
465 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210117Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. RECENT ASCAT-A AND
ASCAT-B IMAGES REVEAL AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF MOSTLY 10-15KTS
WITH SOME ISOLATED 20KT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST
90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. DUE TO THE WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THIS
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[Hayabusa]

TD
Issued at 12:55 UTC, 21 August 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 21 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N21°35' (21.6°)
E123°35' (123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°00' (25.0°)
E123°30' (123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

[Hayabusa]

Next name is Bavi, last time it was used Bavi was a nothingburger, maybe this time Bavi would shine.

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to 09W
First forecast... major typhoon

[Hayabusa]

90 knots towards South Korea, it's still early but that first forecast looks like it's trying to challenge Maemi for the strongest typhoon to hit them

WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SEMICIRCLES. A 211041Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A 211229Z ASCAT-
B IMAGE INDICATES A SWATH OF 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE; HOWEVER, THE 30-35 KNOT WINDS ARE ISOLATED AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAN YU (59567), APPROXIMATELY
40NM WEST OF THE CENTER, ARE NORTHEASTERLY AT 16 KNOTS WITH AN SLP
VALUE OF 1006.9MB, WHICH SUGGESTS WEAKER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY
AT 25 KNOTS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.0-1.5 (25
KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AS
WELL AS WARM SST VALUES (30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES
REFLECTING A DEEP, WARM POOL OF WATER. TD 09W IS TRACKING GENERALLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST WITH A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE STR ALSO POSITIONED NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE WEAK STR EXTENSION POSITIONED NORTH OF TD 09W IS EXPECTED
TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT DAY AS WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIG OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STEERING
STR TO REORIENT AND PRODUCE A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TRACK MOTION FROM
TAU 24 TO TAU 72. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 110NM
AT TAU 48 AND 125NM AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH THE STR BUILDING OVER WESTERN
JAPAN, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD SOUTH KOREA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE AFTER THE SYSTEM
PEAKS AT TAU 96 AT 105 KNOTS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

Oh wow, they’re already calling for a 105 kt typhoon. Maybe this will finally surpass Vongfong as the strongest system of the season.

[aspen]

Models are fairly aggressive with this, but with a lot of range.

GFS: 945 mbar @102 hrs

ECMWF: 983 mbar @120 hrs

CMC: 978 mbar @114 hrs

NAVGEM: 962 mbar @114 hrs

ICON: 959 mbar @117 hrs

HWRF: 941 mbar @102 hrs

HWRF-P: 941 mbar @102 hrs

[gatorcane]

A look at the GFS ar 102 hours:

[gatorcane]

Still strong on the 18Z GFS run:

[aspen]

Eyewall is trying to close off. This’ll probably be a named storm soon.

[Hayabusa]

TS 2008 (Bavi)
Issued at 01:25 UTC, 22 August 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 22 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N23°35' (23.6°)
E122°35' (122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 220 km (120 NM)
NW 95 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°20' (25.3°)
E123°25' (123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 23 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°30' (26.5°)
E123°55' (123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°35' (27.6°)
E126°20' (126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 25 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°05' (29.1°)
E126°30' (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 26 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N31°35' (31.6°)
E126°40' (126.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 510 km (275 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N37°00' (37.0°)
E128°00' (128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 590 km (320 NM)

[Hayabusa]