ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Clearly at least a TD at the moment, just about everyone bar the NHC seem to see it.

Good closed circulation and good presentation, still reminding me of TS Hanna before it really strengthened.

If it doesn't get upgraded, then it's almost certainly a post season candidate.

The NHC is probably too focused on Isaias to really pay too much attention to newly designated Invest 93L.

[TallyTracker]

This definitely meets the criteria for a 30 knot TD. It has a better defined center than Isaias at the moment. Definitely should be upgraded and possibly place TS Warnings for the Cabo Verde Islands.

[St0rmTh0r]

Seriously what will waves in August and September loom like?

[AnnularCane]

93L: "Finally, some recognition!"

[HurricaneEnzo]

Llc is a little elongated but I feel this could be classified a TD as it currently stands

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[shiny-pebble]

Has there ever been a July where there was 3 deep tropic TC developments??

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[Hurricaneman]

Has there ever been a July where there was 3 deep tropic TC developments??

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No, it would set a precedent

[tiger_deF]

Just pointing out that the J storm for 2005 (Jose) formed on August 22nd, so if cyclogenesis occurs over the next few days that puts us 3 weeks ahead of 2005. Personally while I don't think 2020 will surpass 2005, when any season is so far ahead of THE hurricane season it bears watching

[EquusStorm]

I guess that is going to depend on if they wish to classify it, if the persistence and that ASCAT pass didn't convince them then I have doubts they'll put out advisories at this point. Figured they'd throw up a couple short ones for a TD with "oh btw this happened" but guess we'll see

[otowntiger]

since there are no model posts in the model thread, any idea about where this one is headed? Isn't this the one that Phillpe Papin the other day mentioned was headed or going to head NW almost right out the gate and enter cooler waters and dry air? Or is this a different one with different outlook? thanks

[ouragans]

I can't see what are those hostile conditions expected past Cape Verde...

Favorable windshear, no SAL, SST around 26c

[tolakram]

since there are no model posts in the model thread, any idea about where this one is headed? Isn't this the one that Phillpe Papin the other day mentioned was headed or going to head NW almost right out the gate and enter cooler waters and dry air? Or is this a different one with different outlook? thanks

Models have next to nothing. Vorticity moves northwest to almost due north, depending on what you look at.

[EquusStorm]

The 12z Euro run two days ago had several ensembles developing it as a weak shallow TD/TS then killing it off fast but I dunno about future runs. It's certainly going to be extremely short lived but I still think anything that's classifiable should still be classified for basin consistency... not my call though lol

[Extratropical94]

The 12z Euro run two days ago had several ensembles developing it as a weak shallow TD/TS then killing it off fast but I dunno about future runs. It's certainly going to be extremely short lived but I still think anything that's classifiable should still be classified for basin consistency... not my call though lol

Exactly. I feel like they should try to be less reluctant with these far away systems, or at least give a more detailed explanation why a specific system doesn't match the TC criteria. Even if it messes up the TWO forecast verification, they can always pull the trigger without raising the chanced beforehand. In 2011, they went from 0% to 30% STWO to TS Jose in 6 hours, so why not do the same thing here.

[Michele B]

93L INVEST 200730 1200 12.8N 20.7W ATL 25 NA

The thread that was the topic for this tropical wave at Talking Tropics forum.

posting.php?mode=edit&f=31&p=2819708

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands have become more concentrated this morning. Some
development of this system is possible during the next day or two
before environmental conditions become unfavorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/4RQnxK8.png

This ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ is why I love this place!

I would not even know another "something" was out there trying to form if not for this site.

TWC is not talking about this....too much to say about Isaisss - whatever his name is!

[Beef Stew]

This reminds me a lot of Gonzalo while it was still 99L- something that has a strong argument for being a TD but is being overlooked, in this case due to Isaias. One other takeaway: the fact that nearly every invest/disturbance this year has overperformed (many in poor conditions, no less) and that the models have been subpar at sniffing out development (even in the short term) could set up for a very chaotic peak season.

[AveryTheComrade]

I can't see a good reason for the NHC not to designate this thing at 5. It's got a closed LLC on ASCAT and 30kt winds as well as great satellite appearance, what more do they need?

[gfsperpendicular]

I hope the NHC is sure about this one

[tiger_deF]

I hope the NHC is sure about this one
https://i.imgur.com/8k3KcqM.jpg

Many of the waves this season even this early on have had unusually vigorous circulation IMO, might be a sign of an active peak Cape Verde season

[Beef Stew]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288814825037017092




From a few hours ago, but the point still stands. Organization doesn't appear to have waned since then.