EPAC: DOUGLAS - Models

[Kingarabian]

18z HMON is significantly more SW on this run and looks like it impacts Hilo and Maui with hurricane force winds while it travels the water channel between the two islands.

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF is weaker than the HMON and more NW. Looks like it could impact Molokai and Oahu with hurricane force gusts.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro is much stronger on its approach to Hawaii. Hour 90 its still at 977mb, a strong Cat.2. Wouldn't clear the big Island on its run and if it did, Maui would certainly get hit. 18z Euro also keep this a major hurricane until it reaches 150W...

[aspen]

Only nudged slightly upwards to 75 kt. Jeez, the NHC is being really conservative. I would’ve gone with at least 85 kt...unless there’s something else in support of a mid Cat1.

[SconnieCane]

18z Euro is much stronger on its approach to Hawaii. Hour 90 its still at 977mb, a strong Cat.2. Wouldn't clear the big Island on its run and if it did, Maui would certainly get hit. 18z Euro also keep this a major hurricane until it reaches 150W...

Wouldn't it be something if with all eyes on the Atlantic this year, the first high-impact TC strike to the U.S. is in Hawaii, of all places?

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro is much stronger on its approach to Hawaii. Hour 90 its still at 977mb, a strong Cat.2. Wouldn't clear the big Island on its run and if it did, Maui would certainly get hit. 18z Euro also keep this a major hurricane until it reaches 150W...

Wouldn't it be something if with all eyes on the Atlantic this year, the first high-impact TC strike to the U.S. is in Hawaii, of all places?

Yeah that would be a genuine shocker. But it is 2020 so anything is possible.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS has a strong TS hitting Maui.
00z UKMET moderate TS hitting the Big Island.
00z CMC stronger upon Maui impact compared to recent runs.

[CrazyC83]

In 1871, a storm punched the gap between Hawaii and Maui while likely a major hurricane. It CAN happen, even if it is very rare.

http://blog.ametsoc.org/weather-systems ... ecedented/

[Kingarabian]

In 1871, a storm punched the gap between Hawaii and Maui while likely a major hurricane. It CAN happen, even if it is very rare.

http://blog.ametsoc.org/weather-systems ... ecedented/

00z Euro does just that, squeezing it through with 983mb and 77kt winds. Interesting.

[Kingarabian]

Tightly clustered on a track between Maui and the Big Island. If this materializes, it's technically not a landfall. Crazy.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS has a strong TS hitting Maui.
00z UKMET moderate TS hitting the Big Island.
00z CMC stronger upon Maui impact compared to recent runs.

Upon closer look based on this 00z suite, the GFS/UKMET/CMC/Euro/HMON don't have Douglas's center making landfall. They squeeze it through theʻAlenuihāhā Channel, which seperates Maui and the Big Island by 30 miles. Of course tropical storm or hurricane force winds and gusts will extend beyond that, so both islands will be impacted.

00z HWRF clears the islands for the most part and shifted back to the east (brushes Oahu).


COAMPS model also clears the islands.

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS + trend:

[Bocadude85]

If the trend continues I’d say hurricane watches go up for Hawaii and Maui counties tomorrow evening/night. TS watches for Honolulu and Kauai counties probably Friday.

[Kingarabian]

06z ICON has a east Big Island Puna landfall. Strong TS.

06z GFS a bit north compared to the 00z with a Maui hit, 71kts.

[Kingarabian]

06z HWRF still to the right of the consensus but shifted closer to Oahu as a Hurricane:


06z HMON has a Cat.1 Maui landfall and shifted a bit north compared to the 00z run:


06z Euro is hard to tell but it appears to have shifted a bit north and might be a direct hurricane impact on Maui.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS also likely has shifted a bit north and has a Cat.1 hurricane landfall over Maui.


12z UKMET clears the islands to the north for the most part but very close call with Kauai:

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.07.2020

HURRICANE DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 135.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.07.2020 0 13.1N 135.0W 958 79
0000UTC 24.07.2020 12 14.3N 137.9W 963 71
1200UTC 24.07.2020 24 15.8N 141.0W 970 68
0000UTC 25.07.2020 36 17.3N 144.4W 976 64
1200UTC 25.07.2020 48 18.6N 147.7W 984 59
0000UTC 26.07.2020 60 19.8N 150.9W 990 54
1200UTC 26.07.2020 72 21.0N 153.8W 993 55
0000UTC 27.07.2020 84 22.2N 156.4W 996 58
1200UTC 27.07.2020 96 22.3N 159.2W 1006 39
0000UTC 28.07.2020 108 22.5N 162.3W 1010 35
1200UTC 28.07.2020 120 23.0N 165.9W 1012 31
0000UTC 29.07.2020 132 23.7N 169.6W 1014 29
1200UTC 29.07.2020 144 23.7N 172.9W 1015 28

Ok wow, there goes the consensus... 12z CMC now barely scrape the big Island to the south:

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro also shifted South and now has a Cat.2 Puna Big Island landfall (977mb).


12z HWRF similar to the 12z UKMET and shows a Kauai landfall:


12z HMON a bit more south on this run and again punches the channel between Maui and the Big Island:


Definitely more spread now.

[Kingarabian]

18z Spaghetti:

[Yellow Evan]

The SHIPS has shear kicking in about 72 hours but has the GFS has storm moving slower than most models so not sure how much that is worth and generally keeps the TUTT at least somewhat away from the storm. SST's re-warm between 150W and 155W so we may see re-intensification then if the shear can actually be low. Of course, if the shear actually does increase near Hawaii, this probably will be a 35-45 knot storm at best when it passes through.

[Kingarabian]

The SHIPS has shear kicking in about 72 hours but has the GFS has storm moving slower than most models so not sure how much that is worth and generally keeps the TUTT at least somewhat away from the storm. SST's re-warm between 150W and 155W so we may see re-intensification then if the shear can actually be low. Of course, if the shear actually does increase near Hawaii, this probably will be a 35-45 knot storm at best when it passes through.

Past 4 Euro runs seem to hint that shear won't be as much of a problem since the model keeps trending stronger.