ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[TheProfessor]

Hoping we can get some good rain here in southeast Louisiana before the bulk of this system moves towards Texas. Nothing crazy, 1-3" would be nice. Looks like Southshore will have a better chance like with pre-90L though.

[GCANE]

Really good UL divergence north of the cell that has the popup box (high lightning strikes, north of Havana).
This one may already do the trick.

[Aric Dunn]

A few of the EPS are show low 990mb as it approaches texas.

[jaguars_22]

Aric Dunn do you think this will hit Mid Texas coast? I'm in Victoria so i'm liking what i see with rain chances

[GCANE]

Outflow channel already building in to the NE.
Check the ring of UL vorts.
If they start to spread out more, this puppy could take off fast.
Particularly watching that one just south of the Yucatan Channel.
If that dissipates, its game on.
The one over FL should get knocked out by convection.

[Nimbus]

Surface pressures at the east gulf buoy have been dropping for a while now.
Local POP forecasts have been off due to drier air than expected but by the time this area reaches the Texas coast it could build a moisture envelope.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[GCANE]

That ULL south of the Yucatan Channel may actually be far enough away if the convection north of Havana develops a surface low.
Outflow would ramp up quickly and give a positive feedback to the system.
A ring of ULL vorts is always a main driver for a major TC.

[NDG]

91L has improved its organization during the day, recon should be a go for tomorrow.

[GCANE]

700mb vort is further west than I thought

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

700mb vort is further west than I thought

https://i.imgur.com/MnnLR9i.gif

The system is surprisingly well-stacked in terms of vorticity. However, a lot of the new convection seems to be converging around an area distinctly east of the 700mb center if that analysis is to be believed. Should be interesting to watch overnight to see if there's any sort of stretching eastward of the energy that occurs.

[Monsoonjr99]

The models hate this thing, but the NHC seems keen on it and the Gulf of Mexico and 2020 love their quick spinup storms.

Let's see how this evolves...

[tailgater]

700mb vort is further west than I thought

https://i.imgur.com/MnnLR9i.gif

I wonder which is correct?

[Aric Dunn]

700mb vort is further west than I thought

https://i.imgur.com/MnnLR9i.gif

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor3Z-1.GIF

I wonder which is correct?

that is 7 hours old..

and we dont need those images to tell us where we have clear satellite visible ...

[tailgater]

700mb vort is further west than I thought

https://i.imgur.com/MnnLR9i.gif

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor3Z-1.GIF

I wonder which is correct?

that is 7 hours old..

and we dont need those images to tell us where we have clear satellite visible ...

Yeah I didn’t refresh
Winds at 10 meters

Conditions at SANF1 as of
(6:30 pm EDT)
2230 GMT on 07/21/2020:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 39 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.96 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.8 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 87.1 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 23 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 25 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southern
Florida, and western Cuba. Gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the
next few days. This system is expected to move over the central
Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Cpv17]

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southern
Florida, and western Cuba. Gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the
next few days. This system is expected to move over the central
Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

They’re being conservative with those percentages imo.

[tropicwatch]

925mb-700mb appears stacked just northwest of Cuba before you get to the southwest bend in the island.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor3&zoom=&time=

[South Texas Storms]

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southern
Florida, and western Cuba. Gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the
next few days. This system is expected to move over the central
Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

They’re being conservative with those percentages imo.

Yep I think it's closer to 60% development chances right now.

[wxman57]

I have a 35kt TS making landfall between Corpus Christi & Victoria Friday late afternoon. No significant wind. HOPEFULLY some rain. Only 0.25" with the "rain" from 90L yesterday and today. Not enough to water the grass.

[drezee]

I have a 35kt TS making landfall between Corpus Christi & Victoria Friday late afternoon. No significant wind. HOPEFULLY some rain. Only 0.25" with the "rain" from 90L yesterday and today. Not enough to water the grass.

91L will definitely not lack for moisture. Hope it will not be too much too fast...