ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

97L is a very small cyclone and remember these small cyclones can ramp up very quickly. They have their own unique environment. I always remember Hurricane Danny in 2015, which was an extremely tiny TC and it intensified to become a Category 3 major in the MDR. If my memory serves me right, only the HWRF model had Danny even developing at all at that time.

Yes Danny defied the odds that anything of significance would come from the Tropical Atlantic that year considering the Super El Niño.

[northjaxpro]

97L is a very small cyclone and remember these small cyclones can ramp up very quickly. They have their own unique environment. I always remember Hurricane Danny in 2015, which was an extremely tiny TC and it intensified to become a Category 3 major in the MDR. If my memory serves me right, only the HWRF model had Danny even developing at all at that time.

Yes Danny defied the odds that anything of significance would come from the Tropical Atlantic that year considering the Super El Niño.

Yes indeed, in all my years of doing weather and followng the tropics, Danny is among my favorite storms to have analyzed and tracked. It only had one model (HWRF) having developed it. It was a major hurricane , and a tiny one, with hurricane force winds extendird out only 60 miles from the eye. You almost needed a mircroscope to find it on imagery seemingly LOL. Danny did not harm anyone or anything except the fish in the MDR thankfully.

[TheAustinMan]

Our little blob looked quite fruitful entering nightfall. Typically, we look to scatterometer data to provide a more definitive answer for these sorts of small circulations, since it can be a little tricky to distinguish mid-level or even low-level wind flow from surface flow on conventional satellite imagery. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like we'll get ASCAT data tonight (though perhaps one of the other scatterometers active now might catch it). That said, the latest infrared imagery, nighttime microphysics data, and this microwave image below do seem mildly suggestive of a circulation. The -75C overshooting tops are definitely an added bonus.

1.1 MB. Source: FNMOC

[Sciencerocks]

I would have want 80% with that clearly defined LLC under the deep convection...

This thing should be getting numbered or named within the next 12-24 hours...IMO.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1279199310182318081



 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1279198940802412545

[Aric Dunn]

mid level shear is currently out of the north. that should shift more out of the WNW to NW which will allow convection to expand farther north.

[TheStormExpert]

mid level shear is currently out of the north. that should shift more out of the WNW to NW which will allow convection to expand farther north.

Mid-Level Shear shouldn't be too much of an issue.

[Aric Dunn]

couple long feeder bands starting to build.

looks like they will have to back up the development time.. once they upgrade tomorrow.

[plasticup]

Bermuda is not expecting this!

[EquusStorm]

Well that escalated pretty quickly. Shall we prepare the welcome wagon for Edouard so soon?

[Aric Dunn]

Well that escalated pretty quickly. Shall we prepare the welcome wagon for Edouard so soon?

I would say so...

probably by morning visible. or if we get an ASCAT here in the next couple hours.

[northjaxpro]

The cyclone still maintaining solid convection over the circulation center this hour. Again as I pointed out earlier these very small cyclones like this one can be extremely tricky to analyze and also for the reliable models. They can intensify rapidly. That is why I think it is a reasonable possibility that 97L could be stronger imo.

[Aric Dunn]

The cyclone still maintaining solid convection over the circulation center this hour. Again as I pointed out earlier these very small cyclones like this one can be extremely tricky to analyze and also for the reliable models. They can intensify rapidly. That is why I think it is a reasonable possibility that 97L could be stronger imo.

yeah it is almost certainly a TS.

[Nancy Smar]

[Aric Dunn]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcDRox_WkAMvdLz?format=jpg

too bad it just clipped it. ambiguities will likely be quite high.

A and C passes should come in the couple hours..

[Ubuntwo]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcDRox_WkAMvdLz?format=jpg

I was right on the money with 30kt. Still hasn't established easterlies, there may be a storm relative circulation but not an earth relative circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcDRox_WkAMvdLz?format=jpg

I was right on the money with 30kt. Still hasn't established easterlies, there may be a storm relative circulation but not an earth relative circulation.

Dont get too ahead of yourself.

ambiguity is going to be high on this scale and edge of the pass.. as usual.

also the wind field earlier was closed. with a slight attachment to the trough.

with the deep convection, it is not going to all of a sudden start diverging at the surface.

have to wait for A and C passes shortly.


Edit.. ASCAT-A missed the circ completely. hopefully C will cove rit.

[Ubuntwo]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcDRox_WkAMvdLz?format=jpg

I was right on the money with 30kt. Still hasn't established easterlies, there may be a storm relative circulation but not an earth relative circulation.

Dont get too ahead of yourself.

ambiguity is going to be high on this scale and edge of the pass.. as usual.

also the wind field earlier was closed. with a slight attachment to the trough.

with the deep convection, it is not going to all of a sudden start diverging at the surface.

have to wait for A and C passes shortly.


Edit.. ASCAT-A missed the circ completely. hopefully C will cove rit.

It's still somewhat attached to the trough. You can see the low level cloud lines extending to the NE. If convection can establish itself to the north of the center, then this very likely gets a closed circ.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 97, 2020070400, , BEST, 0, 300N, 730W, 30, 1009, LO,

[Aric Dunn]

CFOSAT

The resolution is lower and from almost 4 hours ago.

But showing an organized system. trough then was barely attached.

wind bards are closed the trough only affecting the outer circulation.