ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Cpv17]

I would expect a shift east with today’s 12z Euro. My bet is on the central part of the Louisiana coast.

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro has not initialized the vorticity of amanda in the correct location for some reason.

[Cpv17]

Very complex scenario here. Amanda could possibly survive well enough to redevelop in the BOC as the Euro/CMC/HWRF suggest. Even the GFS and Ukmet suggest this occurs. The difference is the way they move it back into Mexico. After this occurs, another lobe of energy (remnants?) rotate around the east side of the CAG and develops yet another storm off the Northern Yucatán.

Many different outcomes at play here, all feasible. Regardless, I’d say the chances of a tropical cyclone somewhere in the GOM are fairly high this upcoming week.

Because of that loop this looks to develop just to the north of the Yucatán compared to the BOC. That’s the change since yesterday and that’s why the models are shifting east.

[Steve]

I think focusing on any particular landfall location at this point in time is a futile endeavor. The long-term details of the storm are highly sensitive to which vorticity maximum becomes dominant over the next 2-3 days. Will TS Amanda remain the dominant vorticity maximum in the Gulf? The 12Z GFS suggests no. The 00Z EC suggests maybe. The 12Z GEM suggests yes. This has large implications on track, intensity, and most of all, timing.

I would imagine which vorticity max becomes dominant out of the gyre is highly sensitive to diabatic (convective) processes which are notoriously challenging to predict. Just keep this all in mind when you view model forecasts over the next 1-2 days. I imagine we will see lots of waffling.

But the consensus in all models right now is the TX/LA border even though some of the models are developing different areas of low pressure in different areas.

There really is no consensus yet, models and there ensembles show anything from the upper Texas coast to southeast Louisiana that's a pretty broad area . It will be a few more days before we have a true consensus as center relocation is likely at this point which will have large impacts on landfall location.

No consensus yet except probably that we will get a storm. Here's where we are now:

ICON - Landfall roughly 168 hours/next Sunday morning in Cameron Parish, LA looks like TS
GFS - Landfall roughly Tuesday morning 6/9 around Chambers County, TX looks like TS
CMC - Landfall roughly at Terrebonne Bay (south of Houma) Saturday night looks like TS
UKMET - Gets to the Center of the Gulf at the end of that US Tropics run

So that's 4 on board with SCLA to SETX. For the mesoscales, NAM 12km is still spinning in the Bay of Campeche at its end in 84 hours.

[La Breeze]

But the consensus in all models right now is the TX/LA border even though some of the models are developing different areas of low pressure in different areas.

There really is no consensus yet, models and there ensembles show anything from the upper Texas coast to southeast Louisiana that's a pretty broad area . It will be a few more days before we have a true consensus as center relocation is likely at this point which will have large impacts on landfall location.

No consensus yet except probably that we will get a storm. Here's where we are now:

ICON - Landfall roughly 168 hours/next Sunday morning in Cameron Parish, LA looks like TS
GFS - Landfall roughly Tuesday morning 6/9 around Chambers County, TX looks like TS
CMC - Landfall roughly at Terrebonne Bay (south of Houma) Saturday night looks like TS
UKMET - Gets to the Center of the Gulf at the end of that US Tropics run

So that's 4 on board with SCLA to SETX. For the mesoscales, NAM 12km is still spinning in the Bay of Campeche at its end in 84 hours.

Which of these tend to be more reliable overall in recent years?

[kevin]

12z HWRF is indeed further East with a landfall at 126 hours near Mobile, Alabama as a borderline TS/cat 1 hurricane.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensemble mean shifts east:

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF. besides the loose nature of the CORE on the HWRF the upper environment appears to imprrove and become quite favorable.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Just one model run, but the 12z ECMWF has the BOC crossover. However, the redevelopment to the NE is weak and strung out.

[Cpv17]

Man, what a shift to the east in the models today. Now Mississippi and Alabama are in play.

[Aric Dunn]

euro initialized the location of Amanda about 12 hours earlier from its current position. and then when it does make it over the BOC it dives it back into mexico and dies then a secondary circ develops to the NE.

if the circ stays over water like the rest of the models then we wont see this.

[Aric Dunn]

Well played Euro Well Played.. lol

[gatorcane]

Hard left on Euro:

[Aric Dunn]

Since the vorticity was initialized well south offshore I am going to disregard this Euro run for now. ensembles should be interesting.

[wxman57]

Euro dissipates whatever is left of Amanda over southern Mexico late Wednesday. The low it takes into the TX coast is a new development.

[PTrackerLA]

Since the vorticity was initialized well south offshore I am going to disregard this Euro run for now. ensembles should be interesting.

The whole 12z run was a mess if you were trying to follow the vorticity lol.

[aspen]

Euro dissipates whatever is left of Amanda over southern Mexico late Wednesday. The low it takes into the TX coast is a new development.

It seems like the GFS and Euro are hinting at some separate development down the line. That system has popped up in a couple of GFS runs as well. It’ll be crazy if we get to Dolly before June 10th, but it’s still rather far out and can easily bust like 92L.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro ensembles coming in even more aggressive. Several members now in the 950mb range targeting TX/LA.

[Cpv17]

Well heck, I guess everyone from Mexico to Florida is still in play. Confusing situation.

[aspen]

12z Euro ensembles coming in even more aggressive. Several members now in the 950mb range targeting TX/LA.

Has there ever been a major hurricane in June? I know Alex ‘10 got really close, with a central pressure just under 950 mbar.