ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[TheStormExpert]

Well at least there’s a chance this could become fully-tropical. Kind of getting tired of all the messy Subtropical storms we’ve seen over just the past two seasons.

[Aric Dunn]

Well at least there’s a chance this could become fully-tropical. Kind of getting tired of all the messy Subtropical storms we’ve seen over just the past two seasons.

yeah it is looking more likely to be fully tropical at this point.

[hurrtracker79]

I don't see where this was yet tagged as an Invest by the NHC?

[CyclonicFury]

I don't see where this was yet tagged as an Invest by the NHC?

It hasn't been declared an invest yet. I'm guessing the thread was created on the assumption that it would be declared soon since recon has been scheduled.

[cycloneye]

I don't see where this was yet tagged as an Invest by the NHC?

We decided to open the thread a few hours before being tagged as NHC tasked recon in the TCPOD and to have the members post in the new thread but I guess later this afternoon or evening it will be up.

[cycloneye]

Please, let's not post one liner posts that do not contribute to a good discussion about this invest. I deleted one of those that talked about a very strong hurricane of 2019 as a one word post.

[hurrtracker79]

I don't see where this was yet tagged as an Invest by the NHC?

We decided to open the thread a few hours before being tagged as NHC tasked recon in the TCPOD and to have the members post in the new thread but I guess later this afternoon or evening it will be up.

Thanks for the clarification!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1260990029607899136

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan thread.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1260990783068438534




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1260990784154763264




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1260990784876302338




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1260990785920565248

[Aric Dunn]

So far the mesocale models have been doing the best with this.. the HRRR was up until the last couple hours.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1260991509245104128

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z Euro is far to slow with the vorticity. it show little to nothing in the florida straights for 24hurs which of course it is already rapidly increasing.

throwing out the 12z euro today. 18z will likely initialize the system better by then.

[Weatherboy1]

Just wanted to say "Hello" for yet another season on here, albeit one that looks to be getting started early. Here in SE FL (Palm Beach County) definitely breezy today with wind advisory conditions. Will be interesting to see if this thing can spin up while still hanging around between the Keys and Cuba, or if whatever center forms moves over the Peninsula. Or of course the third scenario, which is formation in the Bahamas. Seems as if models have trended west to some degree though. Either way, shouldn't amount to much more than a TD/low end TC or STC

[SFLcane]

So far the mesocale models have been doing the best with this.. the HRRR was up until the last couple hours.

The HRRR shunts the low almost eastward and keeps all the weather to the south of mainland SFL.

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=5908.60791015625&y=6091.81787109375

[TheStormExpert]

Well at least there’s a chance this could become fully-tropical. Kind of getting tired of all the messy Subtropical storms we’ve seen over just the past two seasons.

yeah it is looking more likely to be fully tropical at this point.

Yeah I lost count of how many Subtropical systems we had last season and in 2018.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/1260998222828285954

[Ubuntwo]

Just wanted to say "Hello" for yet another season on here, albeit one that looks to be getting started early. Here in SE FL (Palm Beach County) definitely breezy today with wind advisory conditions. Will be interesting to see if this thing can spin up while still hanging around between the Keys and Cuba, or if whatever center forms moves over the Peninsula. Or of course the third scenario, which is formation in the Bahamas. Seems as if models have trended west to some degree though. Either way, shouldn't amount to much more than a TD/low end TC or STC

Yep, went out on the beach earlier. Winds out of the east, probably about 30 sustained. They calm down a bit inland though.

[TheStormExpert]

The South Florida Water Management District site has a good radar/satellite composite for the time being since it’s near Florida. It’s always cool to check out when a hurricane comes into view like Dorian, Michael, or Irma for instance.



https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/florida-radar-and-satellite-loop

[Aric Dunn]

Havana Reporting NNE to NE winds. waiting for Matanzas to switch to south or wsw .. that would indicate a possible surface circ developing in and around that current mid level circ on radar.