ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[3090]

As the center gets closer it's clear Laura is far less organized than it appeared earlier and that huge spin to the east was indeed the MLC--LLC is north of the convective mass at the moment and about to run across Puerto Rico.

How can you conclusively tell that, from IR satellite imagery? Or are you looking at some other weather tool, that clearly indicates what you have posted? I am curious to understand, because others at times make similar statements and I do not know, or understand, what they may have at their disposal to support their statements. I do not see what you see, or could remotely make any similar statement, based on IR satellite imagery.

[N2FSU]

What a difference a night makes:


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hammy]

As the center gets closer it's clear Laura is far less organized than it appeared earlier and that huge spin to the east was indeed the MLC--LLC is north of the convective mass at the moment and about to run across Puerto Rico.

How can you conclusively tell that, from IR satellite imagery? Or are you looking at some other weather tool, that clearly indicates what you have posted? I am curious to understand, because others at times make similar statements and I do not know, or understand, what they may have at their disposal to support their statements. I do not see what you see, or could remotely make any similar statement, based on IR satellite imagery.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA2/loop.html It's within view of San Juan radar and likely will be for at least another 12 hours or so. I thought that I'd posted the image earlier, it seems I didn't.



Low level motion based on the lighter echoes. Yellow circle is pretty much light to nonexistent movement and where the apparent center is and, as noted in the NHC discussion, with smaller vortices rotating around it--earlier it appeared the LLC and MLC were in the process of meeting but the mid-level low is still lagging behind (black circle). One thing I can confidently say that I haven't been able to for the last few nights, at least based on the banding south of the 'center,' is that it is more than likely closed at the moment.

[alan1961]

its certainly starting to look impressive on satellite

[3090]

its certainly starting to look impressive on satellite

https://img.techpowerup.org/200822/screenhunter-01-aug-22-11-23.gif

LLC & MLC are not stacked yet. Satellite imagery can be deceiving. Case and point; Marco when he was in his infantile development, as a wave axis. Looked very robust; tropical storm appearance/structure, but was only a wave for quite a few days.

[alan1961]

Rather a broad circulation covering Puerto Rico, wouldn't like to say where the LLC is precisely.

[shiny-pebble]

Wow just woke up and looking at IR its super similar to what the HWRF modeled. If it keeps verifying expect lots of convection to fire off today.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[alan1961]

its certainly starting to look impressive on satellite

https://img.techpowerup.org/200822/screenhunter-01-aug-22-11-23.gif

LLC & MLC are not stacked yet. Satellite imagery can be deceiving. Case and point; Marco when he was in his infantile development, as a wave axis. Looked very robust; tropical storm appearance/structure, but was only a wave for quite a few days.

Yes agree, still needs to align LLC & MLC but needs to get a move on before possible land interaction according to NHC track.

[3090]

Very moist environment around Laura.

[3090]

Wow just woke up and looking at IR its super similar to what the HWRF modeled. If it keeps verifying expect lots of convection to fire off today.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Where does the HWRF take her?

[shiny-pebble]

Wow just woke up and looking at IR its super similar to what the HWRF modeled. If it keeps verifying expect lots of convection to fire off today.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Where does the HWRF take her?

North of the islands, (I have not seen recent runs I'm basing this off 18z last night) into the keys, and into SELA I believe. Its north compared to the others and doesn't go through the islands.

Possible center reformation today??

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Do_For_Love]

Looks stronger than yesterday. Also further south than I expected. PR, His, and Cuba are looking at some heavy rain. I hope PR in particular is prepared as the advisory is talking about 8 inches in some places.

The NHC does still expect it to survive despite the land interaction and strengthen into a hurricane in the gulf. Looks like Laura might really be Frederic's daughter, lol.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Nimbus]

NHC keeps the LLC over land through Hispaniola, but it could make the jump to the north shore near the Mona passage just west of PR. Not much the models can do with it until there is a clear track over water. They issued flood warnings for the GA and the wind doesn't seem to be causing problems even though the south side of PR is on the strong side of the circulation.

[La Breeze]

Wow just woke up and looking at IR its super similar to what the HWRF modeled. If it keeps verifying expect lots of convection to fire off today.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Where does the HWRF take her?

North of the islands, (I have not seen recent runs I'm basing this off 18z last night) into the keys, and into SELA I believe. Its north compared to the others and doesn't go through the islands.

Possible center reformation today??

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Do you think that the high pressure will keep Laura on a more westerly course and miss Louisiana altogether?

[shiny-pebble]

Where does the HWRF take her?

North of the islands, (I have not seen recent runs I'm basing this off 18z last night) into the keys, and into SELA I believe. Its north compared to the others and doesn't go through the islands.

Possible center reformation today??

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Do you think that the high pressure will keep Laura on a more westerly course and miss Louisiana altogether?

I'm not a Met so I can't really answer that question. Stick to local meteorologists and the NHC. But it never hurts to be prepared early on if the track shifts.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[La Breeze]

North of the islands, (I have not seen recent runs I'm basing this off 18z last night) into the keys, and into SELA I believe. Its north compared to the others and doesn't go through the islands.

Possible center reformation today??

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Do you think that the high pressure will keep Laura on a more westerly course and miss Louisiana altogether?

I'm not a Met so I can't really answer that question. Stick to local meteorologists and the NHC. But it never hurts to be prepared early on if the track shifts.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Always prepared here - just a gut feeling that Laura will follow Marco into TX and leave LA alone. Again, just a gut feeling.

[aspen]

Very moist environment around Laura.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/08/GOES16-CAR-08-1000x1000.gif

She’s looking very similar to what the HWRF predicted she’d look like at this time. It’s been doing a very good job so far.

[alan1961]

Do you think that the high pressure will keep Laura on a more westerly course and miss Louisiana altogether?

I'm not a Met so I can't really answer that question. Stick to local meteorologists and the NHC. But it never hurts to be prepared early on if the track shifts.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Always prepared here - just a gut feeling that Laura will follow Marco into TX and leave LA alone. Again, just a gut feeling.

06Z GFS Landfalls almost over Houston, Texas, WXman57 heads up

[La Breeze]

I'm not a Met so I can't really answer that question. Stick to local meteorologists and the NHC. But it never hurts to be prepared early on if the track shifts.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Always prepared here - just a gut feeling that Laura will follow Marco into TX and leave LA alone. Again, just a gut feeling.

06Z GFS Landfalls in SE Texas now.

That's what I keep thinking - both storms into TX. Louisiana not getting much out of either (although I am prepared and am ready for anything).

[alan1961]

Always prepared here - just a gut feeling that Laura will follow Marco into TX and leave LA alone. Again, just a gut feeling.

06Z GFS Landfalls almost over Houston,Texas, WXman57 heads up

That's what I keep thinking - both storms into TX. Louisiana not getting much out of either (although I am prepared and am ready for anything).