ATL: MARCO - Models

[wxman22]

Yeah I agree, 12z Euro takes it into the middle Texas coast as a wave fwiw.With a ridge over the southeast and a weakness over the western gulf, i would be surprised if 97L ended up any further east than NOLA.But 98L may be a different story...

[BobHarlem]

18Z Early models: The first time we have had a solid TVCN run on 97l, going right up to NOLA, clipping the Yucatan.

[stormlover2013]

ridge will be to strong to go straight north

[Portastorm]

ridge will be to strong to go straight north

I wouldn't rule out a central Gulf coast hit. Rapid organization of 97L would mean greater likelihood of poleward movement.

[stormlover2013]

ridge will be to strong to go straight north

I wouldn't rule out a central Gulf coast hit. Rapid organization of 97L would mean greater likelihood of poleward movement.

ridge looks really stout, la to mexico, but more western la

[South Texas Storms]

ridge will be to strong to go straight north

I wouldn't rule out a central Gulf coast hit. Rapid organization of 97L would mean greater likelihood of poleward movement.

Yeah Porta that would be just what we need. A TC tracking east of us here in TX to bring a continuation of our miserable hot and dry weather pattern.

But models are still all over the place with this system. Forecast confidence is definitely low.

[Javlin]

18Z Early models: The first time we have had a solid TVCN run on 97l, going right up to NOLA, clipping the Yucatan.

https://i.imgur.com/aPOp69W.gif

Notice the UKMET talk about 1-2 if that played out

[Portastorm]

ridge will be to strong to go straight north

I wouldn't rule out a central Gulf coast hit. Rapid organization of 97L would mean greater likelihood of poleward movement.

Yeah Porta that would be just what we need. A TC tracking east of us here in TX to bring a continuation of our miserable hot and dry weather pattern.

But models are still all over the place with this system. Forecast confidence is definitely low.

Agreed. I see lots of volatility in most of the guidance. It is interesting though that I cannot recall a Texas landfalling named system hitting any further west/south than Corpus by this point in August. Maybe Bret in 1999? So any track from SE Texas to NOLA would seem pretty reasonable to my uneducated mind.

[SoupBone]

ridge will be to strong to go straight north

I wouldn't rule out a central Gulf coast hit. Rapid organization of 97L would mean greater likelihood of poleward movement.

It better start gaining some lattitude then. The GFS-Para has it moving really fast, a hundred miles or so due north of the Yucatan on Sunday. Seems unreasonable.

[Steve]

ICON 36 hours

[lsuhurricane]

ICON is going to produce a monster out of 97L on this run

[captainbarbossa19]

ICON 36 hours
https://i.imgur.com/LybQeVW.png

It's slightly north of the 12z run at this point.

[Steve]

Saturday 10:00am. Looks like 1005 which would be one of its lower readings in the WCAR the last few days. Could ICON go iconic for another storm in 2020? I don't know.

[EquusStorm]

<1000 at 90, this run definitely likes 97L

[stormlover2013]

120 hours below Louisiana, high pressure to hits north, we need a center for the models to latch on 2

[Steve]

<1000 at 90, this run definitely likes 97L

Here it is at 999mb


My biggest takeaway from this run is that it doesn't spend 3-4 days at the Yucatan.

[Steve]

120 hours below Louisiana, high pressure to hits north, we need a center for the models to latch on 2

Hey '13, you're usually 5 or so minutes ahead of Tropical Tidbits. Are you going to the source sites or an aggregator of models site like weatherbell?

[Javlin]

At 114hr 26.8N and 89.0W no real intensification though 998mb.
At120hrs 27.5N and 89.2W 999mb.

[Steve]

ICON valid 120 hours. It may be a bit too far east. Props for leading the way with the system to begin with (along with the CMC at times). But I don't see a drop of 1mb crossing the loop current. Conditions shouldn't be that bad in the middle Gulf that it couldn't intensify more than it is showing. So I'm questioning the track and the intensity if it was to follow that track.

[SFLcane]

18z Icon about to slam into SFL...