ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#181 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:50 pm

Every model I've looked at does show that Azores based High. That's a recipe to keep this system away from the GOM. IF it verifies. Just commenting on recent runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#182 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:51 pm

Looks like EURO weakens the trough and it pulls up. Ridge builds back in, tracking WNW.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#183 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:52 pm

GFS and Euro at the same location @ 216 hours, believe it or not.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#184 Postby chaser1 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:52 pm

Good news is that the EURO indicates weakening at 216 hours. Bad news is that it appears that the Central Plains ridging is bridging eastward over the S.E. CONUS. That might imply the current 240 hr. to soon show more of a left turn. Long long way off still.........
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#185 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:53 pm

Weak Sauce through the Bahamas at 216 heading NW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#186 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:54 pm

Isaías weakening, mid range TS in the Bahamas.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#187 Postby sma10 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:56 pm

When you think about it, pretty darned remarkable agreement between Euro, UK, GFS, Icon and JMA a week out.

But take heart, as everyone who has followed these threads over the years fully knows. The ONLY thing we can be completely sure of is that it will not play out precisely as depicted
Last edited by sma10 on Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#188 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:57 pm

12z Euro ends with a weak low heading towards the Carolinas. Next suite please.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#189 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:58 pm

Lock it in, landfall between Cape Hatteras and Jacksonville according to the GFS and Euro

jk/ it’s too far out to really know strength or location but the models are showing something in the Bahamas in 8 to 9 days so it’s something to monitor after Hanna
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#190 Postby sma10 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:58 pm

toad strangler wrote:12z Euro ends with a weak low heading towards the Carolinas. Next suite please.


Stop. :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#191 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:59 pm

Ridge builds in. Another east coast hit. Interaction with hispaniola is the wild card.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#192 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:59 pm

Not sure what caused the weakening (maybe Hispaniola?) but 12z runs have nudged north from last nights runs.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#193 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:02 pm

I’m getting Matthew/Dorian vibes from 92L. Folks here in metropolitan SE Florida have been so lucky here since 2016 with the three majors that came close but missed in terms of sustained hurricane winds.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#194 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:03 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:GFS and Euro at the same location @ 216 hours, believe it or not.

Same location, much different intensity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#195 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:06 pm

The 500mb pattern looks very progressive across the U.S. So it will be critical as to whether this gets caught by the ridge or swept away out to sea by a trough. Right now the NAO is negative trending positive.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#196 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:09 pm

The question is whether it's going to take an Irma, Dorian, Irene, or Jose track. (Not intensity)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#197 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:09 pm

Welp, we have 6 full days of model runs before it starts getting chaotic.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#198 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:10 pm

Yes, latest Euro now has it as a weak 1002 low off Fl heading north toward the Carolina's.
After multiple runs as weak in the west carib/GoMex.

May I be excused, my brain is full.

At least it will lead to countless discussions over the next week. :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#199 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:11 pm

Didn’t see anyone post the GFS ensembles. They are MUCH stronger but most recurve well east of Florida and the Bahamas:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#200 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:Didn’t see anyone post the GFS ensembles. They are MUCH stronger but most recurve well east of Florida and the Bahamas:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmb6PV3t/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-32.png


They were posted back on page 8
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