ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 262323
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory on
recently downgraded Tropical Depression Hanna, located inland
over northeastern Mexico. Future advisories on Hanna will be
issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center in College Park,
Maryland.

Shower activity is becoming a little better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
central tropical Atlantic about midway between the coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to
become increasingly conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the
next day or two while moving westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. This system is expected to begin affecting portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night, and
interests on those islands should continue to monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Hanna will be issued by the Weather Prediction
Center under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the
web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Shower activity is becoming a little better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
central tropical Atlantic about midway between the coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to
become increasingly conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the
next day or two while moving westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. This system is expected to begin affecting portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night, and
interests on those islands should continue to monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[SFLcane]

Shower activity is becoming a little better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
central tropical Atlantic about midway between the coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to
become increasingly conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the
next day or two while moving westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. This system is expected to begin affecting portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night, and
interests on those islands should continue to monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/FbAhBxc.jpg

This is going fast!

[HurricaneAndre2008]

How do we post an image we saved on our phone on here?

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Shower activity is becoming a little better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
central tropical Atlantic about midway between the coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to
become increasingly conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the
next day or two while moving westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. This system is expected to begin affecting portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night, and
interests on those islands should continue to monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/FbAhBxc.jpg

This is going fast!

Its slowing down now.

[SFLcane]

Strong wording in that TWO for sure. Going to be an interesting couple of days.

[cycloneye]

Those who are looking at satelites to 92L are on a delay.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1287529755353526277

[tropicwatch]

92L is huge and will cover a larger area. The only good thing about that is it will take longer to intensify. Too bad it isn't closer to the islands at this point.

[wx98]

Haven’t looked at models, and I know things may change after a LLC becomes better defined and dominant, but is the current consensus to miss the islands to the north or go through them? It looks to be getting pretty far west at a low latitude (12N) to miss them completely without a sharper NW motion.

[tiger_deF]

Those who are looking at satelites to 92L are on a delay.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1287529755353526277

I seriously wonder how they tracked storms in the pre-satellite era, would people in the early 1900s even have known about 92L?

[FireRat]

I must say that is one of the largest Circulations I have ever seen lol

if it ever did become a hurricane .. you better bet it would create its own environemnt

https://i.ibb.co/bXRXCn5/26038474.gif

Good lord lmao, that thing is massive! It's like the Bowser of invests, huge and likely slow to gain momentum, but once it does it would be hard to stop, like a semi truck. Dang!

[HurricaneAndre2008]

TXNT28 KNES 262358
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92L)

B. 26/2330Z

C. 12.1N

D. 39.9W

E. FIVE/MET-11

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARCTERIZED BY SPIRAL, LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A CENTER LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES TO THE EAST OF A VERY SMALL
COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET
AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Beef Stew]

It’s certainly going to be interesting to see how 92L plays out. If it were a month later, the alarms for a CV longtracking major would be sounding full blast- which isn’t to say they are currently silent by any stretch, but climo still points to a tougher path for substantial development. That being said, 92L is certainly a more vigorous and healthier system than a late-July MDR wave has any right to be- and with the way this year has been challenging climo norms, nothing is off the table. Regardless of whether we end up with weak TS or Major Hurricane Isaias, I feel that it may just be an 'appetizer' for things yet to come in the MDR...

[tropicwatch]

Moored Array in the Atlantic
Atlas Buoy
15.000 N 38.000 W (15°0'0" N 38°0'0" W)

[chaser1]

Strong wording in that TWO for sure. Going to be an interesting couple of days.

Right? It's not common for NHC to be this bullish

[GeneratorPower]

Strong wording in that TWO for sure. Going to be an interesting couple of days.

That’s a pretty hard core TWO. Was not expecting that. This season is giving me a bad feeling.

[TheProfessor]

Those who are looking at satelites to 92L are on a delay.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1287529755353526277

I seriously wonder how they tracked storms in the pre-satellite era, would people in the early 1900s even have known about 92L?

Mostly likely no unless they got lucky and a ship was moving through the area. The early 1900s was unfortunately a learning experience for tropical weather tracking, which led to thousands of lives being lost in the Galveston hurricane. Of course it was made very clear very quickly that being prideful in your abilities and not using other's skillful knowledge puts people's lives at stake.

[Meteophile]

If people want to access recent imagery of this storm during goes data issues, you can use this website that gives access to eumetsat (and recent imagery of goes when it works):

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/f18 ... 0100z.html

Z+2 and in German in the link I posted, but maybe you can change it.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

92L INVEST 200727 0000 11.9N 40.3W ATL 25 1009

[St0rmTh0r]

It's large size is going to probably hinder it consolidating in the near short term, but once it gets going, watch out.

It would be a super storm for sure 2020 here we go again!