ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

interaction with the Yucatan is affecting it and it should not strengthen until the system gets more out in the Gulf..

[Nimbus]

interaction with the Yucatan is affecting it and it should not strengthen until the system gets more out in the Gulf..

Last recon pass the dropsondes were down about 5 mb's.

[Stormgodess]

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

I think it's because people were expecting a Wilma-level storm yesterday and stopped watching once it collapsed, out of a strange form of disappointment.

I think many people are Model and track fatigued. The storms this year, have seemed so unpredictable! And there has been so many. I know for me personally, until it gets closer, I feel like I cant really count on the predictions. I really hate saying that, and I know overall accuracy has gotten so much better. But that is just how it "Feels"???

[Blinhart]

interaction with the Yucatan is affecting it and it should not strengthen until the system gets more out in the Gulf..

Last recon pass the dropsondes were down about 5 mb's.

I think it is about to start ramping up, as soon as it gets a little further out into the GoM it is a go for bombing I'm afraid.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

I think it's because people were expecting a Wilma-level storm yesterday and stopped watching once it collapsed, out of a strange form of disappointment.

I guess that makes sense. When I use to chase Tornados in Eastern Colorado, I would often go home feeling down if I didn't see a funnel cloud touch down. I didn't want to see anyone's homes get wrecked of course, but it as all about the thrill of the hunt and visuals. That's probably what's going on here.

[texsn95]

Sure looks to have an almost due West motion at the moment.

[Blinhart]

We will see what the NHC has to say in the next half hour, the next advisory will be telling, but the one at 10 pm (Central) tonight will be more telling, and that is the one I'm be actually looking at to determine what exactly I should be expecting.

[Frank P]

interaction with the Yucatan is affecting it and it should not strengthen until the system gets more out in the Gulf..

Last recon pass the dropsondes were down about 5 mb's.

might be pulling away from the Yucatan faster than I thought... we'll see if the trend continues...

[GCANE]

Coldest cloud tops pretty circular on IR now with a warm-core feature in the middle.

ADT calling a uniform CDO.

[stormlover2013]

Is this going due west I can’t tell lol

[tailgater]

Winds are up some also I saw a 80 mph smfr

[aspen]

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

I think it's because people were expecting a Wilma-level storm yesterday and stopped watching once it collapsed, out of a strange form of disappointment.

Delta grabbed our attention when it apparently tried to become Wilma 2.0, but when the spirit of 2020 decided that was somehow too much and shot it down via unexpected mid-level shear, the hype pretty much died.

[MGC]

Looks like Delta is slowly getting better organized this afternoon. Further intensification looks very likely as upper level conditions looks very favorable the next day with ridging aloft. Delta should transverse SST that are quite warm. Delta should get close to Cat-4 intensity IMO. Lets hope shear increases and cooler shelf waters knock Delta down a couple of Cats prior to landfall. Surge is going to be quite high in the RFQ at landfall....MGC

[GCANE]

Big increase in instability across a large portion of the GoM since this morning.
CAPE up to 5000.
6000 is usually when the big RI fuel kicks in

[Stormcenter]

Delta is expanding in size considerably as expected.

[wx98]

Winds are much higher on the latest recon pass. It now looks like a solid Cat 1 compared to earlier when it was barely hanging on.

[AutoPenalti]

If this was ever lower than a Cat 1 than this is the most Cat 4 looking-Cat 1 I've ever seen.

[LARanger]

I feel like I cant really count on the predictions. I really hate saying that, and I know overall accuracy has gotten so much better. But that is just how it "Feels"???

You're not wrong. Especially in the BR/Hammond area which I believe we share, basically every hurricane that's struck the northern gulf has, at one point or another, had a forecast track pointed at our area . . . sometimes two at the same time, criss-crossed . . . only to see it actually hit the other side of the state, or even another state, entirely. It's like the BR/NO area is the "default target".

Even as Delta models trend more westward (itself 2020's trend), the accuracy issues keep me up at night since, eventually, one's luck runs out.

[ColdMiser123]

Modest pressure falls now resuming with a bump in the winds as well this pass.

Should have until Friday morning to deepen.

[wx98]

Now they finally "caught up" on intensity:

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY...
4:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 7
Location: 22.1°N 89.5°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph