ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Not sure why there is so much doubt about Delta gaining a significant amount of strength. The cloud pattern is currently the best of its entire lifespan. I know that sounds strange considering it was 145mph yesterday, but even then it wasn't the prettiest Cat 4 storm. It was basically an El Reno tornado. The outflow is perfect in all quadrants and these conditions should continue well into tomorrow over warm ocean temps.

[tiger_deF]

Frankly I'm somewhat concerned about upper level conditions near the coast; the waters will cool significantly but the combination of baroclinic forces present later in the year and an environment with very little predicted shear could allow Delta to maintain the majority of her strength.

Also is it just me or is Delta very much moving directly west?

[mcallum177]

The appearance yesterday was very odd-looking, it looked like a TS but with VERY cold cloud tops! And of course, the measurements showed the Cat 4 wind speed. It is 2020 after all!

Not sure why there is so much doubt about Delta gaining a significant amount of strength. The cloud pattern is currently the best of its entire lifespan. I know that sounds strange considering it was 145mph yesterday, but even then it wasn't the prettiest Cat 4 storm. It was basically an El Reno tornado. The outflow is perfect in all quadrants and these conditions should continue well into tomorrow over warm ocean temps.

[Blinhart]

Not to get off topic, but I still don't know what the inland penetration of storm surge was for Laura. I'm curious about the forecast of 30-40 miles inland and why.

The reason why is because Louisiana is completely flat, I live about 30 to 35 miles inland but only 29 feet above sea level, and some areas around here are only 12 feet above sea level. We have many bayous (creeks) and swampland that feed into bigger rivers that feed into the Gulf of Mexico, and that allows the surge to move further inland without much interruptions. Therefore we are prone to the sea surge and waves far in land.

I think you've nailed it Blinhart. Low elevation and pathways landward for efficient inundation. Look at footage of the 2011 Japan tsunami flowing up rivers for an analog.

I can understand why people don't understand this, because most places have large elevation changes either right at the coast or not far from the coast. I know the Phillipines which is where Cyclenall is from are Islands but Volcanic Islands like Hawaii.

[Frank P]

Frankly I'm somewhat concerned about upper level conditions near the coast; the waters will cool significantly but the combination of baroclinic forces present later in the year and an environment with very little predicted shear could allow Delta to maintain the majority of her strength.

Also is it just me or is Delta very much moving directly west?

Looked to me like the hot tower south of the core pulled it a tad west, could be short term

[chaser1]

You tend to see way more actively on a storm
thread when it threatens Florida. With Delta this obviously
not the case right now.

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

Must be season fatigue. I do agree with you though. If this were taking aim at SW Florida as a Cat 2 with potential to intensify.... I'd think this thread would be buzzing. I guess it's a combination of season-fatigue and some degree of "it's not going to impact me" disinterest. That might change if Delta starts deepening and once again becomes a potentially bigger season event. No matter what, this WILL be a significant landfall event to those in its path especially along and near the coast.

[Blinhart]

Looks like it is ingesting some dry air, which I didn't see it doing, hopefully it keeps down and not allow it to RI.

[Blinhart]

I'm actually shocked that the TWC is commenting on the data coming from RECON, when almost every single data set is flagged.

[Nimbus]

The pinhole eye allowed rapid intensification over the Caribbean.
I would expect slower intensification with a larger eye now that Delta has cleared the coast.
The track is over warm SST's for the next 24 hours so no doubt it will return to being a major.
Hopefully the track forecast doesn't change unexpectedly with so many models in agreement.

[Steve]

Oh my gosh.. why do people keep saying this. Laura had a 17 foot surge which was what was forecast.

The comments aren't based on the height, they're based on the fact that that surge was possible tens of miles inland. Just an FYI.

Not to get off topic, but I still don't know what the inland penetration of storm surge was for Laura. I'm curious about the forecast of 30-40 miles inland and why.

Nutshell answer is that much of the land through Cameron Parish is either low, wet or streams and bayous. On top of that, our politicians over the last 70 years or so allowed oil and gas companies to crisscross the wetlands and prairies with canals in order to service existing wells and also for exploration. The result is that we lose a football field of land every hour, every day, 365 days a year. Forget what Louisiana looks like on a map. It looks nothing like it’s shown anymore. We went from a state that was building land due to river sediment into one that is losing it constantly. On top of that, many land areas are sinking so you have to ring them with walls and levees (City of New Orleans is a great example). So protected land sinks and unprotected land washes away.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks primed to go to me. Not too bad for a significant hurricane that just spent a few hours over land.

[SupaShrink]

You tend to see way more actively on a storm
thread when it threatens Florida. With Delta this obviously
not the case right now.

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

Must be season fatigue. I do agree with you though. If this were taking aim at SW Florida as a Cat 2 with potential to intensify.... I'd think this thread would be buzzing. I guess it's a combination of season-fatigue and some degree of "it's not going to impact me" disinterest. That might change if Delta starts deepening and once again becomes a potentially bigger season event. No matter what, this WILL be a significant landfall event to those in its path especially along and near the coast.

Yeah it's heading right to my house so I'm certainly here hitting refresh

[Steve]

Not sure why there is so much doubt about Delta gaining a significant amount of strength. The cloud pattern is currently the best of its entire lifespan. I know that sounds strange considering it was 145mph yesterday, but even then it wasn't the prettiest Cat 4 storm. It was basically an El Reno tornado. The outflow is perfect in all quadrants and these conditions should continue well into tomorrow over warm ocean temps.

While they aren't great per se’, check out the intensity guidance. Those models never showed (since yesterday when I looked at it) that anything but a slight increase back to what it was before hitting the Yucatán. Since it weakened considerably over water, there is a chance that the recovery peak may be steeper than it was yesterday. Let me go check it.

Here you go. http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... _early.png

[ScottNAtlanta]

This doesn't look to RI any time soon. The last vortex msg only had a 3 degree difference in/out of the eye. I'd want to see a bigger difference to show the strength of the updrafts. Prior to landfall it was a 12 degree difference.

[tailgater]

Not sure why there is so much doubt about Delta gaining a significant amount of strength. The cloud pattern is currently the best of its entire lifespan. I know that sounds strange considering it was 145mph yesterday, but even then it wasn't the prettiest Cat 4 storm. It was basically an El Reno tornado. The outflow is perfect in all quadrants and these conditions should continue well into tomorrow over warm ocean temps.

I agree it does look more formidable today with increasingly better structure. Lots TPW low shear no PVS

[aspen]

Looks primed to go to me. Not too bad for a significant hurricane that just spent a few hours over land.

https://i.imgur.com/N7nYEHI.jpg

It already has a weak eye-like feature. Recon is heading for another center pass, and it looks like that feature is just about on top of the CoC.

[tiger_deF]

If I was basing my analysis off entirely IR images I'd have thought this was a strong tropical storm which hit the Yucatan peninsula and quickly strengthened over and off it. Goes to show it can conceal what is under the hood so to speak

[Stormgodess]

The comments aren't based on the height, they're based on the fact that that surge was possible tens of miles inland. Just an FYI.

Not to get off topic, but I still don't know what the inland penetration of storm surge was for Laura. I'm curious about the forecast of 30-40 miles inland and why.

The reason why is because Louisiana is completely flat, I live about 30 to 35 miles inland but only 29 feet above sea level, and some areas around here are only 12 feet above sea level. We have many bayous (creeks) and swampland that feed into bigger rivers that feed into the Gulf of Mexico, and that allows the surge to move further inland without much interruptions. Therefore we are prone to the sea surge and waves far in land.

YES!

So much of our coastline is marsh, well inland. Not only does it cause serious issue as far as storm surge, but also in many areas there is very little to weaken a storm as it moves inland.

[zal0phus]

Wow, this thread is as dead as a doornail for there being a Cat 2 in the Gulf. I know it's a weekday, but use to seeing it much busier even on a weekday with a hurricane in the Gulf.

Personally I think the reason is because people are just burned out on this hurricane season and want it to be over with already,

I think it's because people were expecting a Wilma-level storm yesterday and stopped watching once it collapsed, out of a strange form of disappointment.

[otowntiger]

The think NHC has already stated that Delta can be retired as Delta-2020. The name Delta will be reused.

So.. it’s not really being retired. Regardless of what this Delta does, we will be never refer to another storm as ‘Delta 2020’ , lol.