ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon looks like it'll be there for the peak. Perfect timing. I'd venture to say we will see pressures in the low 970s with Fl/SFMRs supporting 85 knots.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Eye temps quickly warming.

[tiger_deF]

Eye temps quickly warming.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GOES16312020302Zboxcg.jpg

There are many amospheric factors in this image alone, I think that Zeta will benefit immensely from positive shortwave interactions, as well as baroclinic forcing as mentioned before. In the later stages as it transitions, I could even see the warm/cold airmass boundary and riding further intensity winds over what they would be normally

[supercane4867]

Since no one is expecting such, I think a major hurricane at landfall is definitely not impossible. Yes there are cooler waters ahead but a fast moving system in the mid-latitude with an intense 200mb jet to the west of it functions a little different than your typical tropical cyclone. This is a purely speculative call though.

And there is a nagging pain in the back of my mind making me wonder if we REALLY KNOW the extent of the effect that the Cold front will have on it?

It was so hot and muggy here yesterday even as Zeta was just leaving the Yucatan. I understand we have similar instances from the east coast to use as a gauge, I just cant imagine their atmosphere could be ripe as ours is for something to just explode

But Im a noob, and more of an empath than data person, so what do I know lol

Humberto 2019 provides a good example case for my speculation

See https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092019_Humberto.pdf


Current setup of Zeta is similar to an extent

[kevin]

It indeed looks like recon will arrive at the perfect time. I predict they'll find a 85 - 90 kt cat 2. I think a cat 3 is a bit too much, but based on visuals this definitely looks like a formidable and dangerous cat 2.

[aspen]

Eye temps quickly warming.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GOES16312020302Zboxcg.jpg

That does NOT look like it belongs in late October. If I didn’t know, I would’ve thought that was a storm in August or September.

[tailgater]

Coming into radar view. saved loop

https://i.imgur.com/K1SOfzx.gif

Bump I’d like keep this radar current if possible

[SconnieCane]

Eye temps quickly warming.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GOES16312020302Zboxcg.jpg

That does NOT look like it belongs in late October. If I didn’t know, I would’ve thought that was a storm in August or September.

Well Wilma was a late October storm...but not approaching the northern Gulf coast.

[supercane4867]

Impressive.

[supercane4867]

Once the eye is fully warmed, Zeta will be the top late-October Gulf Coast hurricane of all time.

[Jr0d]

I dont like what I am seeing, it sort of reminds me of Wilma right before making landfall in Florida. She caught a lot of people by surprise.

The good news is its fast moving, and not a large storm(i had to be reminded). This should keep flooding in check. I am still concerned there maybe higher surge than expected in some isolated spots, despite all of this.

[ColdMiser123]

Since no one is expecting such, I think a major hurricane at landfall is definitely not impossible. Yes there are cooler waters ahead but a fast moving system in the mid-latitude with an intense 200mb jet to the west of it functions a little different than your typical tropical cyclone. This is a purely speculative call though.

And there is a nagging pain in the back of my mind making me wonder if we REALLY KNOW the extent of the effect that the Cold front will have on it?

It was so hot and muggy here yesterday even as Zeta was just leaving the Yucatan. I understand we have similar instances from the east coast to use as a gauge, I just cant imagine their atmosphere could be ripe as ours is for something to just explode

But Im a noob, and more of an empath than data person, so what do I know lol

Humberto 2019 provides a good example case for my speculation

See https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092019_Humberto.pdf
https://i.imgur.com/yh3tz6c.jpg

Current setup of Zeta is similar to an extent

https://i.imgur.com/v4VlsHE.png

I've made some annotations on this map which shows why upper level divergence takes place in the right entrance (bottom right) part of the jet streak.

The component of the wind responsible for acceleration of the wind is called the ageostrophic wind, and points 90 degrees to the left of the acceleration vector. The acceleration vector just points toward higher wind values on either side of the jet streak. As a result, this results in the ageostrophic wind diverging in this right entrance area of the jet streak, which favors maintenance, and even intensification of deep low pressure systems. Upper level divergence is also favored in the left exit region (top left) part of the jet streak.

[ElectricStorm]

Once the eye is fully warmed, Zeta will be the top late-October Gulf Coast hurricane of all time.

https://i.imgur.com/6qRWaVz.jpg

2020 strikes again...

[TallahasseeMan]

Recon making an eye pass, we'll see where Zeta is at strength wise very soon.

[aspen]

Recon is at operational altitude and should complete its first pass within half an hour. I’m guessing extrapolated pressures will be down to 966-970 mbar (they were around 974 mbar last time).

[tiger_deF]

What the admins haven't told us is that since the header became frozen on TD Twenty-seven, the season has actually been running in reverse. This would explain the September-like Zeta (analogous to Delta), and I fully expect a Beta equivalent into Texas any day now

[ConvergenceZone]

Eye temps quickly warming.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GOES16312020302Zboxcg.jpg

That does NOT look like it belongs in late October. If I didn’t know, I would’ve thought that was a storm in August or September.

It doesn't surprise me really. It suppose to be in the 80's here in California and it's almost November. our planet's weather is so screwed up right now that it doesn't surprise me that this type of storm is happening in October...

[MGC]

Look at all the cold air being pulled into Zeta's back side....impressive. This might be like Hurricane Hilda in 1964....I remember a cool back side of Hilda once it passed my home in New Orleans.... Clear NNE movement now.....MGC

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looking like the hurricane hunters have stopped transmitting right before the first eye pass.

EDIT: Data coming in now. Wasn't even a pass through the NE quad and Flight Level Winds are >100 knots.

[ColdMiser123]

102 kt FL wind found in the SE quad, extremely likely that this is a Cat 2 now.

Probably even higher winds in the NE quad.