ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

I wonder if the 12z models will have the relocation. I'm not sure they will have time to put that data in

[xironman]

NHC had 28.4°N so the latitude is alright it is just the 87.4°W that will need an adjustment

[cheezyWXguy]

Hey look if reformed to the ENE>. go figure

now the track changes will get interesting

Velocities have really jumped around that center as well. Obviously well aloft since it’s so far from the radar site, but the uptick is the important takeaway

[MississippiWx]

My theory last night was a more northward track early would result in a more westward landfall location due to it being embedded in a more easterly steering current for longer. The models with the hardest turn to the right kept this trucking along to the west and stalling just southeast of Louisiana Before turning northeast. I guess my theory will be put to the test now.

[tiger_deF]

Now I still doubt that Sally will be a major, but a relocation under the deep convection is the worst possible thing to happen in terms of impacts and future strengthening

[Do_For_Love]

Interesting warm spot in the middle of all that convection on the IR. Is she trying to form an eye around the relocated center?

[Dean4Storms]

All I can say is....... BOOM!

[Aric Dunn]

pressure dropped 2 mb as well

[Chemmers]

I have a bad feeling about this now

[Nimbus]

Recon just found a 995MB surface pressure without a wind flip.
Pressure gradient is tightened up considerably as the latest convective burst is centering the updraft channel.
We may need 6 hour averaging to get a better idea of track direction if Sally has stalled early Alabama might be getting wind and surge updates not that they shouldn't already be prepared for at least a cat 1. Best rule of thumb is prepare up one category. Here in FL Irma scared the crap out of me and almost ruined my new generator.

[Blown Away]

Wonder if upwelling will come into play with Sally wobbling around in the same location?

[Dean4Storms]

When you look at the Ensembles of the GFS and Euro the Members with the stronger storm turn northward sooner than the weaker storm ensembles. Not good at all!

[northjaxpro]

I have a bad feeling about this now

Ditto!

[hipshot]

Sally, that girl, is getting going, amazing deep convection. We will probably see the LLC and MLC start getting stacked little by little during the day today.

https://i.imgur.com/cZFQUdn.gif

Are the concentric waves expanding outward from the middle of that convection the gravity waves someone posted about.

[DestinHurricane]

When you look at the Ensembles of the GFS and Euro the Members with the stronger storm turn northward sooner than the weaker storm ensembles. Not good at all!

Not good for us. Good for NOLA.

[Aric Dunn]

Wonder if upwelling will come into play with Sally wobbling around in the same location?

It would take days at this intensity to upwell enough to weaken it.

upwelling wont be a problem with sally for its life time.

[3090]

When you look at the Ensembles of the GFS and Euro the Members with the stronger storm turn northward sooner than the weaker storm ensembles. Not good at all!

OK got it!

[Ivanhater]

When you look at the Ensembles of the GFS and Euro the Members with the stronger storm turn northward sooner than the weaker storm ensembles. Not good at all!

Not good for us. Good for NOLA.

Yep, we all were talking about that last night. Not sure if 12z has time ingest the relocation but 18z should

[Steve Cosby]

Thank you for posting this. Really nice.

This is spectacular.. with radial gravity waves and "bow shock" at the leading edge. and the immense pressure wave that was thrust outwards!

https://i.ibb.co/pQ01Y73/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-meso-meso1-02-12-52-Z-20200914-map-31-1n-3-300.gif

[tolakram]

The HWRF model shows the center bouncing around and very slow deepening for the next 12 to 18 hours after which it ramps up fast. I don't think we'll see much improvement today.

I'll quote myself That should have been somewhat steady deepening.

989mb at 11am and 974mb by 11pm is what the 6Z HWRF shows.