ATL: ZETA - Models

[LarryWx]

Ok, enough. The 12z Euro sends 95L into TX/LA border area as a TS /Cat 1 in 5 days... I’m making the call, center reformation to the SW, trapped under HP in NW Caribbean and/or over Yucatan and ultimately a NE ejection towards FL peninsula in 5-7 days...

Actually, the 12Z Euro hits C LA moving NE similar to the 0Z.

Here is the 12Z EPS, which like the 0Z/6Z EPS say the operational (green) is on the left side of the envelope that has nearly all hit between C LA and Panama City for 3rd run in a row:

[SFLcane]

Ok, enough. The 12z Euro sends 95L into TX/LA border area as a TS /Cat 1 in 5 days... I’m making the call, center reformation to the SW, trapped under HP in NW Caribbean and/or over Yucatan and ultimately a NE ejection towards FL peninsula in 5-7 days...

I highly doubt it with building high pressure. If this ends up hitting SFL I will eat my sock.

[Blown Away]

Ok, enough. The 12z Euro sends 95L into TX/LA border area as a TS /Cat 1 in 5 days... I’m making the call, center reformation to the SW, trapped under HP in NW Caribbean and/or over Yucatan and ultimately a NE ejection towards FL peninsula in 5-7 days...

I highly doubt it with building high pressure. If this ends up hitting SFL I will eat my sock.

Snipet from 5pm Disco: The guidance isn't in very good agreement, and these types of trough ejection scenarios can have significant timing differences.

Keep the socks on standby... Climatology heavily favors NE over Florida Peninsula late October...

[cp79]

Models continue moving west. At this stage it may hit Texas.

[SFLcane]

Ok, enough. The 12z Euro sends 95L into TX/LA border area as a TS /Cat 1 in 5 days... I’m making the call, center reformation to the SW, trapped under HP in NW Caribbean and/or over Yucatan and ultimately a NE ejection towards FL peninsula in 5-7 days...

I highly doubt it with building high pressure. If this ends up hitting SFL I will eat my sock.

Snipet from 5pm Disco: The guidance isn't in very good agreement, and these types of trough ejection scenarios can have significant timing differences.

Keep the socks on standby... Climatology heavily favors NE over Florida Peninsula late October...

Not happening...that's how it goes this year strong and persistent high pressure.

[Blown Away]

Models continue moving west. At this stage it may hit Texas.

18z HMON at 6 hrs drops down to 16.8N/83.7W... The past few model runs, a few keep moving the Low SW early in the run and W late... The HMON is a @2 degrees S of the NHC 5pm position... I’m sure many twists and turns to come...

[cp79]

Models continue moving west. At this stage it may hit Texas.

18z HMON at 6 hrs drops down to 16.8N/83.7W... The past few model runs, a few keep moving the Low SW early in the run and W late... The HMON is a @2 degrees S of the NHC 5pm position... I’m sure many twists and turns to come...

Just seems like there’s no windshield wiper effect with the models this year. Rather it’s a fan effect with one on each side of the Florida coast blowing it the other direction further away from them each model run. Been that way all season, all 28 storms.

[aspen]

18z HWRF seems to have a better handle on the current status of the system. It has a 980 mbar Cat 1 hurricane by the time it exits the Caribbean.

[3090]

Ok, enough. The 12z Euro sends 95L into TX/LA border area as a TS /Cat 1 in 5 days... I’m making the call, center reformation to the SW, trapped under HP in NW Caribbean and/or over Yucatan and ultimately a NE ejection towards FL peninsula in 5-7 days...

I highly doubt it with building high pressure. If this ends up hitting SFL I will eat my sock.

Snipet from 5pm Disco: The guidance isn't in very good agreement, and these types of trough ejection scenarios can have significant timing differences.

Keep the socks on standby... Climatology heavily favors NE over Florida Peninsula late October...

Climatology is certainly factual. But it does not equal all future storms will follow similarly. Point is; do not bet on it.

[ronjon]

18z GFS para into Ft walton beach area around 970 mb. Big ole bowling ball low pressure at 500 mb moving pretty rapidly from central Tx at 96 hrs to S Arkansas by 120 hrs creating a full long wave trough into the northern gulf coast. Speed of this trough and speed of future Zeta key to forecast as to how far east it landfalls.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020102418&fh=102

[LarryWx]

18Z Euro is a little east of 12Z and near the 0Z:



18Z EPS is similar to the last few with the favored tracks between C LA and Panama City with the operational still on the left side.

[Nimbus]

18z GFS para into Ft walton beach area around 970 mb. Big ole bowling ball low pressure at 500 mb moving pretty rapidly from central Tx at 96 hrs to S Arkansas by 120 hrs creating a full long wave trough into the northern gulf coast. Speed of this trough and speed of future Zeta key to forecast as to how far east it landfalls.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020102418&fh=102

Good example, at 78 hours there is a bowling ball 591 isobar off the SE CONUS which pumps moist air in from the Caribbean. The distance between the isobars in the gulf isn't conducive for much shear so 970 mb would be about right with cooler gulf SST's. Epsilon wasn't over very warm waters as a symmetrical major so hoping for a little different set up at 78 hours for Zeta. At 102 hours this un there is likely to be some drier air above that 585 isobar with light dry shear from the southwest so still might be OK but it looks close.

[cp79]

18Z Euro is a little east of 12Z and near the 0Z:

https://i.imgur.com/41qwQVK.png

That’s still way west of most other models.

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS para into Ft walton beach area around 970 mb. Big ole bowling ball low pressure at 500 mb moving pretty rapidly from central Tx at 96 hrs to S Arkansas by 120 hrs creating a full long wave trough into the northern gulf coast. Speed of this trough and speed of future Zeta key to forecast as to how far east it landfalls.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020102418&fh=102

That looks more like Gulf Shores, AL to Pensacola.

[Stormcenter]

When you have a strong hurricane hitting SW LA. in Oct. then you know climatology is basically useless in 2020. IMO

[Blown Away]

I highly doubt it with building high pressure. If this ends up hitting SFL I will eat my sock.

Snipet from 5pm Disco: The guidance isn't in very good agreement, and these types of trough ejection scenarios can have significant timing differences.

Keep the socks on standby... Climatology heavily favors NE over Florida Peninsula late October...

Climatology is certainly factual. But it does not equal all future storms will follow similarly. Point is; do not bet on it.

Your right, but if your laying odds climatology will be right more than it is wrong... Late October NW Caribbean storm that moves into the EGOM is heavily weighted on a NE track between Cuba and Panama City FL... Panama City to the W is low percentage, but does happen... Let’s revisit this post @Thursday for verification...

[underthwx]

Models continue moving west. At this stage it may hit Texas.

If it tracks that far West...my socks will be on the menu as well...lol

[SoupBone]

Models continue moving west. At this stage it may hit Texas.

If it tracks that far West...my socks will be on the menu as well...lol

A track into SE Texas would be EXTREMELY rare. But I always hedge my bets with, it is 2020.

[LarryWx]

When you have a strong hurricane hitting SW LA. in Oct. then you know climatology is basically useless in 2020. IMO

Climo is never useless though it is often misused. The 2020 tracks will be added to the collection of old tracks on which climo is based. If we start having a lot of similar tracks in the upcoming years, then the climo favored tracks will gradually change. Climo is always evolving. Some of it is likely related to global warming.

I know that the SE US ridge has been extra strong and persistent in recent years. A pro met I talk to says it is due to the very warm W Pacific.

[underthwx]

Models continue moving west. At this stage it may hit Texas.

If it tracks that far West...my socks will be on the menu as well...lol

A track into SE Texas would be EXTREMELY rare. But I always hedge my bets with, it is 2020.

Words of wisdom....but seriously....with fronts in the area, would that not shield the Texas coast?....