EPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

CDO looking much more organized and surrounded by W and embedded in B and the shape of LG (or colder) cloud tops is quite round. Eye not there yet. Will be a major in a short order if it isn't already.

[Yellow Evan]

CAT 5 Ryan?? Lofty Goals

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1295 ... 51749?s=20

It probably has a good chance to get close. This has 36 hours left, maybe a little more if this moved more east than forecast, so the biggest inhibiting factor is inner core dynamics. Cat 5 itself is tough to attain in this basin though and requires a little bit of arbitrary Dvorak luck.

[aspen]

CAT 5 Ryan?? Lofty Goals

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1295 ... 51749?s=20

It probably has a good chance to get close. This has 36 hours left, maybe a little more if this moved more east than forecast, so the biggest inhibiting factor is inner core dynamics. Cat 5 itself is tough to attain in this basin though and requires a little bit of arbitrary Dvorak luck.

36 hours in possibly the most favorable environment encountered by ANH EPac system this year, along with dual outflow channels — Genevieve has very high potential. I don’t know about Cat 5 status just yet, but it should break 120 kt no problem, unless it has additional core problems.

[CrazyC83]

https://i.imgur.com/ZhZQIdZ.png

CDO looking much more organized and surrounded by W and embedded in B and the shape of LG (or colder) cloud tops is quite round. Eye not there yet. Will be a major in a short order if it isn't already.

That looks like T5.0 to me, since the eye isn't well established.

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.imgur.com/ZhZQIdZ.png

CDO looking much more organized and surrounded by W and embedded in B and the shape of LG (or colder) cloud tops is quite round. Eye not there yet. Will be a major in a short order if it isn't already.

That looks like T5.0 to me, since the eye isn't well established.

It’s oscillating between T5.0 and T5.5, pending on frame you cherrypick.

[1900hurricane]

SATCON has also been running pretty close to the NHC estimates and subjective Dvorak. The last estimate just before 00Z was about 90 kt.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it has successfully figured out its dry air issues and there hasn't been less than-50C cloud top slots near the CDO for an hour now. Meanwhile the convection near the eye is more circular and deepening. Despite the lack of a warm eye this is likely a major hurricane if recon were to sample this.

[CrazyC83]

https://i.imgur.com/ZhZQIdZ.png

CDO looking much more organized and surrounded by W and embedded in B and the shape of LG (or colder) cloud tops is quite round. Eye not there yet. Will be a major in a short order if it isn't already.

That looks like T5.0 to me, since the eye isn't well established.

It’s oscillating between T5.0 and T5.5, pending on frame you cherrypick.

If that is the case, then 95 kt is probably the best intensity estimate.

[Kingarabian]

SATCON has also been running pretty close to the NHC estimates and subjective Dvorak. The last estimate just before 00Z was about 90 kt.

ADT is probably holding it back some since the scene type has been oscillating between CDO/Embedded center and Eye.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 972.2mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.2 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -47.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Convection warming. Due to an ERC or mid shear pushing more dry air?

[Kingarabian]

SAB still 4.5/4.5 somehow.

ADT will be 5.5 by the time the next advisory comes out.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2020 Time : 062020 UTC
Lat : 16:53:59 N Lon : 106:46:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 962.5mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : -2.7C Cloud Region Temp : -63.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Wow impressive! Definitely a major hurricane! Two hour old GMI pass showed a well established strong eyewall. Best MW presentation we've seen so far from the WPAC/EPAC/ATLANTIC.



With this IR presentation...

Convection warming. Due to an ERC or mid shear pushing more dry air?
https://i.imgur.com/IE8EWM5.png

Wrong here for sure lol.

[Visioen]

If an ERC did happen, it was of the melding type. (in my humble opinion)

[Astromanía]

What a solid core!

[Kingarabian]

If an ERC did happen, it was of the melding type. (in my humble opinion)

It seems that way. Yeah the IR presentation is playing catch up to the microwave.

[aspen]

Wow impressive! Definitely a major hurricane! Two hour old GMI pass showed a well established strong eyewall. Best MW presentation we've seen so far from the WPAC/EPAC/ATLANTIC.

https://i.imgur.com/Oyvb1zc.jpg

With this IR presentation...
https://i.imgur.com/9uYLlGA.png

Convection warming. Due to an ERC or mid shear pushing more dry air?
https://i.imgur.com/IE8EWM5.png

Wrong here for sure lol.

That core is not going to allow any dry air intrusions. Convection needs to catch up with the strong eyewall and start cooling, and we’ll have a major soon.

If new deep convection doesn’t start popping up, however, Genevieve could be a shallow convection major like Dorian and Douglas.

[Astromanía]

Really starting to look impressive with a clear eye, visible images from sunrise will be stunning

[Kingarabian]

Wow impressive! Definitely a major hurricane! Two hour old GMI pass showed a well established strong eyewall. Best MW presentation we've seen so far from the WPAC/EPAC/ATLANTIC.

https://i.imgur.com/Oyvb1zc.jpg

With this IR presentation...
https://i.imgur.com/9uYLlGA.png

Convection warming. Due to an ERC or mid shear pushing more dry air?
https://i.imgur.com/IE8EWM5.png

Wrong here for sure lol.

That core is not going to allow any dry air intrusions. Convection needs to catch up with the strong eyewall and start cooling, and we’ll have a major soon.

If new deep convection doesn’t start popping up, however, Genevieve could be a shallow convection major like Dorian and Douglas.

From my experience with monitoring MW imagery and matching them with recon runs, a presentation like what the GMI showed, if recon were to be in the system right now or in the past 3 hours they would've found a major hurricane. Some systems with Dvorak fixes of 6.0/6.5 don't even get this kind of eyewall that Genevieve has.

[Chris90]

Wow impressive! Definitely a major hurricane! Two hour old GMI pass showed a well established strong eyewall. Best MW presentation we've seen so far from the WPAC/EPAC/ATLANTIC.

https://i.imgur.com/Oyvb1zc.jpg

With this IR presentation...
https://i.imgur.com/9uYLlGA.png


Wrong here for sure lol.

That core is not going to allow any dry air intrusions. Convection needs to catch up with the strong eyewall and start cooling, and we’ll have a major soon.

If new deep convection doesn’t start popping up, however, Genevieve could be a shallow convection major like Dorian and Douglas.

From my experience with monitoring MW imagery and matching them with recon runs, a presentation like what the GMI showed, if recon were to be in the system right now or in the past 3 hours they would've found a major hurricane. Some systems with Dvorak fixes of 6.0/6.5 don't even get this kind of eyewall that Genevieve has.

Co-signing this. I tend to give MW imagery more weight compared to IR. I think the ATL has showed us that microwave can be extremely helpful for intensity analysis when you corroborate it with Recon findings. Irma and Dorian both had astounding microwave presentations with equally impressive recon data, but Dvorak suggested lesser intensity. I like Dvorak a lot, but I think this is a case where it’s running behind. Genevieve looks great on MW, and when that eye clears estimates should take a big jump. I’m impressed with her so far.