ATL: ETA - Models

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro through 72hrs. misses the FL Keys to the south before diving SW.

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z GEFS ensemble shows some stronger members meandering Eta around the E GOM before hooking NE toward the FL W coast around 120 hours. Obviously the models will probably shift a bit more on future runs since the center of Eta was relocated this morning by recon.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL29_2020110712_GEFS_0-120h_large.png?1604770107

[NDG]

12z Euro shifted to the right on landfall in Cuba but past 24 hrs it is still very persistent on its track further west of the NHC track so far on this run.

[NDG]

12z Euro through 72hrs. misses the FL Keys to the south before diving SW.

No it does not, it shows it going right over Key West.

[gatorcane]

Center is irrelevant guys, impacts far from center. Euro 850mb winds don’t look as high over Florida as the GFS though

[gatorcane]

18Z:

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Center is irrelevant guys, impacts far from center. Euro 850mb winds don’t look as high over Florida as the GFS though

https://i.postimg.cc/CLxSdcqd/ecmwf-mslp-uv850-seus-fh24-144.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/Bvgm8BDQ/gfs-mslp-uv850-seus-fh24-144.gif

With the way the Euro has performed this season I think I’ll side with the GFS.

[AutoPenalti]

18Z:

https://i.postimg.cc/x1C0ctBt/29-L-tracks-18z.png
https://i.postimg.cc/526VxjFr/29-L-intensity-18z.png

Intensity guidance stronger?

[TheStormExpert]

18Z:

https://i.postimg.cc/x1C0ctBt/29-L-tracks-18z.png
https://i.postimg.cc/526VxjFr/29-L-intensity-18z.png

Intensity guidance stronger?

No, it’s just due to current intensity being stronger than initialized at 12z.

[SFLcane]

Note that the HWRF & HMON models have been performing the best on track and intensity thus far.

[Spacecoast]

Day 3 sorted Average Track error (in nm) for Eta:


Day 3 sorted Average Intensity error (kn) for Eta:



Day 2 sorted Average Track error (in nm) for Eta:


Day 2 sorted Average Intensity error (kn) for Eta:

[SouthFLTropics]

Um, 18z GFS coming in much stronger in the GOM after passing South Florida.


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[SouthFLTropics]

Um, 18z GFS coming in much stronger in the GOM after passing South Florida.


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[gatorcane]

Look at the GFS trend SW last 4 runs closer to the Euro

[SouthFLTropics]

If the 18z GFS is right, this thing is still going to be hanging around in the SE GOM a week from now. That location would favor enhanced training of storms over the peninsula. The rain totals for the next week will be off the chart.

[CDO62]

The 18z GFS must have started happy hour shortly after the 12z run.

[AdamFirst]

LOL, TVCN is out to lunch. The computers can't computate that sort of wackiness even if they tried. wxman57 posted a singular plot of the 18z run. Or, Florida's in for a big flooding event over the next 5 days, perhaps

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1325224338937819142

[CDO62]

18z HMON. 966mb moving NE into Pinellas county.

[aspen]

Seems like most of the models have shifted to having Eta move further SW (closer to the Yucatán Channel) and slowing down at least somewhat. The GFS and HMON put it in the optimal place to become a Cat 2/3, while the HWRF, CMC, and ICON don’t show anything stronger than they’ve previously had over the last multiple runs.