ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1561 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:25 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Can you provide coordinates?



16.1N 65.3W

https://i.ibb.co/tzZ5LWN/Capture.png


Hopefully HH finds it so forecast models can initiate correctly.


Yeah

however, this does not exclude the possibility of another vort farther south. Just means that it can likely be upgraded.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1562 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:27 pm

I had to stop looking at Sat. loops...was making my head hurt :blowup:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1563 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:27 pm

CronkPSU wrote:here for the Fujiwara discussion!!!


See today's CMC:

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1564 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:28 pm

If that really is the center it might be far enough north to avoid getting shredded once it gets to Hispaniola.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1565 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:28 pm


Latest visible shows the circulation starting to close off and you can see the west wind shift
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1566 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:29 pm

I have the CoC near 16.5N 65.9W

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1567 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:29 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:here for the Fujiwara discussion!!!


See today's CMC:

https://i.imgur.com/g9OQmea.gif


Ok...that wins Bazar model of the day...
or the "all inclusive of everything we talked about in one model" award
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1568 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:30 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:It almost does look like 2 systems rotating around each other on the wider (2mile) view. We will know for sure this time tomorrow (I know I said ask me Wed...but it is still Wed till 11:59 pm). Is the next recon later tonight like it was yesterday?


That’s what I was noticing. Looks like some kind of Siamese hurricanes :double:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1569 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:31 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:here for the Fujiwara discussion!!!


See today's CMC:

https://i.imgur.com/g9OQmea.gif


OH MAN!!!! that is SO BEAUTIFUL!!!!!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1570 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:33 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:here for the Fujiwara discussion!!!


See today's CMC:

https://i.imgur.com/g9OQmea.gif


OH MAN!!!! that is SO BEAUTIFUL!!!!!

I take earlier comment back...THAT MODEL...it makes my head hurt
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1571 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:40 pm

Bingo! Lord have mercy :roll:

Aric Dunn wrote:I found the center likepretty 100 percent positive..

https://i.ibb.co/1np7s16/99887766.gif
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1572 Postby xironman » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:42 pm

Twins, separated at birth
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1573 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:43 pm

Tropical Tidbits video for tonight.
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288604404543827968


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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1574 Postby rolltide » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:48 pm

Total non-pro opinion but I think this will just skirt the south coast of the D.R. and then cross the eastern side of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1575 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:52 pm

This feels a lot more like a CAG than a typical TW. So much uncertainty and lacking a well-defined CoC.
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Some Californian who codes things and tracks weather.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1576 Postby Recurve » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:53 pm

It is really getting the "look." It'll be interesting to watch the recon tonight. I have to catch up on shear info. How's the confidence that environment will not be favorable all the way into Florida?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1577 Postby 3090 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:54 pm

NDG wrote:I have the CoC near 16.5N 65.9W

https://i.imgur.com/tuIVH2U.jpg


Simply a guess..
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1578 Postby Hammy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:56 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:here for the Fujiwara discussion!!!


See today's CMC:

https://i.imgur.com/g9OQmea.gif


Hermine's invest did something similar.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1579 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:59 pm

Things that make you go “hummm”

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1288546641146978305


Last edited by AutoPenalti on Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1580 Postby 3090 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:00 pm

Since this discussion began on NINE, there has been at least ONE message posted on every page, such as; IT IS ABOUT TO BE NAMED...CENTER IS STARTING TO GET BETTER DEFINED....I SEE THE CENTER NOW...I HAVE THE CENTER AT ?...IT IS ABOUT TO BLOW UP...and a lot of other similar type messages. But yet, there is NOTHING NADA, ZILCH, ZERO! At some point, someone is going to be right. LOL.

Stay tuned folks, it should be interesting TOMORROW!
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