ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

This is not a Marco.

[Do_For_Love]

She looks a lot larger and a little stronger than last night IMO. Still lopsided though with the majority of the heavy convection east of center - maybe that's why she is struggling to get to hurricane status?

Either way, she's gonna do a lot of damage I think even if she remains a "dirty storm" lol, more of a rain and surge threat than wind. That slow movement is a killer and she is just gonna dump rain.

[3090]

Impressive mess of a blob that has a bigger bark than its bite ATM.

[3090]

This is not a Marco.

Nor a Laura. A mess is what she is. A HOT mess. LOL

[3090]

Intensification is on pause until this meso can wrap around the LLC.

https://i.ibb.co/85c9tc1/image.png

Center is south of Mobile bay ATM according to your scribed point.

[jaxfladude]

So Sally may end up being a sheared early season type system at landfall? Still a flood and surge threat than a wind threat? Or worse still?

[Jelff]

The link below will open an interactive map. The pink area has a 50+% chance of excessive rainfall. You can click any red star and follow the link for NOAA rain gage data.

The map has many GIS layers you can turn on/off/restack. A number of the GIS layers include attribute data with links that lead to more information.

Click “Map tips” upper left corner for help.

Open GISsurfer map:
https://mappingsupport.com/p2/gissurfer.php?center=29.754784,-88.275146&zoom=7&basemap=USA_basemap&overlay=State_boundary,Hurricane/Storm_observed_track,Hurricane/Storm_forecast_track,Hurricane/Storm_observed_position,Hurricane/Storm_forecast_position,Excessive_rainfall_forecast_day_2,Weather_station_A_with_rainfall&txtfile=https://mappingsupport.com/p2/special_maps/disaster/USA_rain_flood.txt

[MGC]

Sally is still a very lopsided TC. No evidence of an eye forming on IR sat. If Sally is going to intensify to its forecast intensity convection has to establish on the western side of the circulation. Looks like I am very close to forecast landfall according to 4am track. Blue skies to the west with cirrus deck to the east, light NE wind at the house.....MGC

[edu2703]

Up tp 65 mph. Pressure down to 994 mb

[Aric Dunn]

The center is right between the two large towers on radar and satellite. very deep convection building right now on the south side.

[cfisher]

So Sally may end up beiing a sheared early season type system at landfall? Still a flood ans surge threat than a wind threat? Or worse still?

The shear *could* be a boon if it can manage to wrap into it. A similar situation occurred with Michael.

[cfisher]

The center is right between the two large towers on radar and satellite. very deep convection building right now on the south side.

https://i.ibb.co/NYyz1zW/5.gif

That's a meso. Unless it brings a low to the surface, which is entirely possible I guess?

[GCANE]

This is the coldest-topped tower I have seen so far.
A warm-core feature is right next to it.

[tolakram]

Very interesting look on visible this morning.

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso1_30.html

[xironman]

South and east of the 5am position

Coordinates: 28.133N 87.200W

[Do_For_Love]

So Sally may end up being a sheared early season type system at landfall? Still a flood and surge threat than a wind threat? Or worse still?

I mean, I would say no to that statement. The reason why is because I can't think of many early season storms that produce ~10 ft of surge and dump ~20 inches of rain. The winds *might* not be that strong (although there is still time for Sally to strengthen) but that amount of water is no joke regardless.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[GCANE]

Just blew up on radar.
Recon is getting there just on time.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[DestinHurricane]

South and east of the 5am position

Coordinates: 28.133N 87.200W

So slower than expected. If it keeps crawling we can expect more east shifts.

[Aric Dunn]

IF this gets pulled further back into the convection all sorts of interesting tracks changes ahead..