ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313783304881987584

[Blinhart]

The Hype from this storm seems to have died down pretty quickly...

To be honest, a hurricane does not generate much hype when it's about to make a landfall outside the US, unless it's a strong Cat 4/5 one. The hype will eventually come back when Delta re-strengthens back to a major hurricane in the gulf, which seems likely, and heads towards the northern gulf coast.

I think a lot of us, myself included, were fully geeked out to witness a pinhole bomb-out to Cat. 5 over sub-900-supporting waters, the likes of which hasn't been seen in the recon-equipped Atlantic for 15 years. However the atmosphere had other plans...

The reason it probably got quite last night is because a lot of us are going to bed early to get sleep because we know starting Thursday night through who knows when, we won't be getting a lot of sleep. I know that is what I did.

[MOGSY31]

Prep time tomorrow, already take off of work
Just build a new screened in deck so need to put some finishing touches to that

then drop KATC on the tv and sit back see how we fair

Once it gets off the Yucatan i think we will have a better picture of where here in Louisiana its going to land
Looking at the cone whether it moves a little West or a little East we still going to catch a lot of this storm in Crowley

[tolakram]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/763335809529020426/xm2ERq91thBAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC.png

Welp 06Z GFS just initialized and the shear is gone now

It's still there, see the higher barbs in the mid levels? Levi explained this as the mid level shear (not direction but speed) that could inhibit strengthening.

[Blinhart]

for Laura they predicted 15-20 and 17 feet was recorded. Sally had higher than expected surge, particularly from Pensacola to Destin.

Laura's surge was not as widespread as originally forecast....the 17' recorded surge was in a rural area.

With Sally, Mobile Bay got lucky because where Sally hit. The surge there was no where near the forecast in Mobile Bay.

While most of us on here know why the left side of the storm will have much less surge or even lower water levels, this is not the case for many in the warning area. When the surge is significantly lower than forecast(as a result of being on the left side), this can lead to complacency for future storms.

As for Laura: That's not how the surge forecasts work. The given values have a 10% chance of being exceeded for each area, and the values are given as a potential for surge. Because there's track uncertainty these will cover a wider area than surge actually occurs in. The 15-20ft area was all prone to surge at that level with potential track deviations. A more specific surge forecast would be misleading and could be catastrophic with last minute shifts.

Think NHC + the media needs to work on messaging because A LOT of people missed this with Laura, seemingly you included.

And the storm surge was bad throughout South Louisiana, might not of gotten to the 20 foot that was warned, but did get over 10 feet in many locations.

[Nimbus]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/763335809529020426/xm2ERq91thBAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC.png

Welp 06Z GFS just initialized and the shear is gone now

Latest GFS run also says that Delta is currently at its weakest, even slightly strengthening while over Yucatan.

Gusty winds but lights stayed on in Cancun.
Models not making any big landfall changes last 24 hours.
NOLA might escape the worst of the wind and much of Lafayette is above 25 ft except for the swampy areas.

[tolakram]

732
WTNT61 KNHC 071049
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
645 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR PUERTO MORELOS...

Satellite imagery, radar data from Cuba, and surface observations
in Mexico indicate that the center of Delta has made landfall along
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Puerto Morelos
around 5:30 AM CDT (1030 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 110
mph (175 km/h), a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Puerto Morales recently reported
near calm winds and a minimum pressure of 972 MB (28.71 inches) in
the center.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cancun has reported peak
sustained winds of 84 mph (135 km/h) with a gust to 106 mph (170
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 645 AM EDT...1045 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 86.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Blinhart]

Prep time tomorrow, already take off of work
Just build a new screened in deck so need to put some finishing touches to that

then drop KATC on the tv and sit back see how we fair

Once it gets off the Yucatan i think we will have a better picture of where here in Louisiana its going to land
Looking at the cone whether it moves a little West or a little East we still going to catch a lot of this storm in Crowley

Looks like we will be experiencing a lot of rain and wind for a good 24 hours, so be prepared to be without electricity for a good bit Friday night and Saturday maybe through Monday or Tuesday, depending on how well they redid the main line for Cleco on Highway 13.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313799385856131072

[Jr0d]

Think NHC + the media needs to work on messaging because A LOT of people missed this with Laura, seemingly you included.

I have tracking storms for over 30 years, I certainly did NOT miss that with Laura.

If you remember with Laura, there were advisories saying the surge could potentially go X miles inland, and that fell way short.

Again my concern is the general population being complacent because they were in an area where the surge was no where near as a high nor reached as far inland as forecast in some of the more populated areas.

I have seen this type complacency often, here on Key West a lot of people did not evacuate for Irma and Key West had category 1 conditions, many of those people are convinced they got the full brunt of the storm and believe they will be safe in a cat 3 here. (Also worth noting that the surge was relatively low here because we were on the left side of Irma...). It is kind of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

I really do not know how the NHC, local NWS can address the complacency issue better.

We certainly do not want to underestimate the surge, as we saw with Katrina.

Hopefully Delta's forward speed will help minimize the surge potential.

[GCANE]

Interesting and unusual reports from Josh


 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313790760232185856




 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313797274342879234




 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313799385856131072




 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313802986792128512




 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313807109545357313

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1313806902804066306




 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1313804129869991937




 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1313803515672788992

[Kazmit]

Those reports from the storm chasers are confusing. Stronger than expected? Lots of damage? Giant eye? I'm guessing some structural changes are going on right now.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313816171410608131

[aspen]

Delta is already halfway across the Yucatán and should be back over water within a few hours.

[kevin]

Looks surprisingly healthy considering it's over land. I'm very interested what recon will find once they do a center pass.

[Astromanía]

Looks surprisingly healthy considering it's over land. I'm very interested what recon will find once they do a center pass.

https://imgur.com/xviVY73

That's flat land for you

[us89]

Geographically, the Yucatan is very similar to Florida, right down to the geology - very flat with lots of limestone sinkholes. I wonder if we’re seeing a brown ocean effect here.

[northjaxpro]

Looks surprisingly healthy considering it's over land. I'm very interested what recon will find once they do a center pass.

https://imgur.com/xviVY73

That's flat land for you

The flat terrain of the Yucatan will not do much to hinder Delta's structure. Delta will be back over open water by.noon. Delta will be able to re-organize fsurly auickly imo once it emerges farther away from the Yucatan Peninsula later this afternoon and tonight.

[MississippiWx]

Delta appears to be partially over water already. Looks like it's straddling the coastline. Could be making an early exit.

One obvious difference from yesterday is the much improved outflow on the eastern side. Shear has relaxed a great deal.