ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cfisher]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/754993220974542918/unknown-50.png

Curved lightning

Yeah, that's an intense vortical hot-tower.

Asymmetric convection with embedded anti-cyclonically rotating hot-towers can be a precursor to RI (source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 3218301553)

[3090]

Go to bed late last night thinking oh my Sally is going to be something big when I wake up tomorrow morning and on its way to a known landfall. But I wake up only to find a continued hot mess of a tropical system and still some uncertainty on a second landfall along with the ever present “it looks like she is ready to take off” type of analysis. In reality, she is still a broad mess and 2 a bit of uncertainty on 2nd landfall. It is however becoming apparent her initial landfall looks to be somewhere along the SELA coast. Either the MOTMR, or eastern St. Bernard parish. Going to be a very interesting wobble watching day for sure. But it appears her steady west movement overnight has put her closer to the western side of the MOTMR for her initial landfall for now.

[Hurricane Mike]

Early morning Sally Video Update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUBHfx6ynRQ

[xironman]

Interesting little warm spot right near the 5am location

[Keldeo1997]

??

Edit: If that's a Eyewall forming that is very small.

[tiger_deF]

Lotta lightning in the northern eyewall in the past half hour, could be a sign of intensification

[GCANE]

I am starting to wonder if this may be another pinhole

[cfisher]

Interesting little warm spot right near the 5am location

https://i.imgur.com/zaLh86A.gif

That's subsidence from sinking air around the hot-tower. It still needs to wrap upshear around the CoC.

[Keldeo1997]

I am starting to wonder if this may be another pinhole

Pinhole would be awful. Puts a High end Major back on the table.

Does anyone know if we ever had a Pinhole in the Gulf. I feel those type of Storm are more for the Caribbean

[RL3AO]

Guys there's not any evidence that Sally has any banding structure near the center that would suggest that an eyewall is starting to form, much less a pinhole eye. It's a slightly sheared convective blob at the moment.

[cfisher]

Intensification is on pause until this meso can wrap around the LLC.

[GCANE]

I am starting to wonder if this may be another pinhole

Pinhole would be awful. Puts a High end Major back on the table.

Does anyone know if we ever had a Pinhole in the Gulf. I feel those type of Storm are more for the Caribbean

Marco

[xironman]

Intensification is on pause until this meso can wrap around the LLC.

https://i.ibb.co/85c9tc1/image.png

I think your llc is way west of the 5am position.

4:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 14
Location: 28.3°N 87.3°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

[GCANE]

I don't know.

A ton of lightning with that VHT and its at 87W.
Detecting tight helicity.
That convection to the east could be indicative of infeed.

Recon should be there within the hour.

[GCANE]

Recon on the runway.
A short flight.

[cfisher]

It's tried to wrap that meso twice, and both times it's collapsed into an outflow boundary (due to some some dry air). It should make another go soon

[Nimbus]

Recon on the runway.
A short flight.

Last recon run they found the surface pressure profile was more like a shallow pie plate which meant no RI.
Windfield is large which inhibits spin up but if the surface pressure gradient make a sharper V this run we might expect resumption of intensification.

[tiger_deF]

Convection is starting to cool around the warm spot that GCANE mentioned earlier, already looking better than it did an hour ago

[GCANE]

Intense lightning and then a warm core feature.
Yesterday it looked like it was taking off with very fast east to west towers zooming north of the CoC and then they hit a wall.
Don't know why.
See what happens today.

[edu2703]