ATL: ETA - Models

[blp]

Yep, it’s heading north right into SFL.

https://i.postimg.cc/Sx5BKt0P/67687-FE0-F205-4-E34-9-BCD-23-FA3-C915-EDC.jpg

It’s news if it doesn’t go 90 degrees W in next frame...

Heads nw across southeast Florida before heading into the GOM. Either way you slice this it’s north of nhc forecast

https://i.postimg.cc/mkHc0nsG/14404061-8025-4950-81-D6-5061-FED5-E2-EA.jpg

How strong does it have it?

[SFLcane]

00z models shifting north again...

[Blown Away]

00z models shifting north again...

https://i.postimg.cc/yYr9p2SW/01-EE28-AE-811-D-45-A7-966-D-C30096-A41-BF4.jpg

The only way that left bump flattens is if Eta moves faster and south of the NHC track over next 36 hours. Which could happen.

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance:

[boca]

00z models shifting north again...

https://i.postimg.cc/yYr9p2SW/01-EE28-AE-811-D-45-A7-966-D-C30096-A41-BF4.jpg

The only way that left bump flattens is if Eta moves faster and south of the NHC track over next 36 hours. Which could happen.

Are you saying a gradual turn as opposed to what the NHC is predicting with the turn west.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has the heaviest rainfall over the Bahamas with a strip of 6-7 inches over SE Florida

[gatorcane]

The important thing when looking at the model tracks is that impacts will be felt far from the center. Take a look at the GFS which shows the pressure gradient tightening starting tomorrow morning across the east coast of Florida so east winds will be picking up yet the storm will be south of Cuba. I do think the gusts could get pretty wild along the coast over the next few days particularly Sun and into Monday. Looks how the high winds are even are up across the coast of NE Florida on the model.

[blp]

Icon coming in much stronger and further north.

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS 6MB stronger into South Florida now 987MB

[SFLcane]

00z Gfs much stronger! 986mb

Also tracks NW into the state

[TheStormExpert]

00Z GFS 6MB stronger into South Florida now 987MB

It’s actually only 2mb stronger when compared to 18z.

[AutoPenalti]

00Z GFS 6MB stronger into South Florida now 987MB

It’s actually only 2mb stronger when compared to 18z.

993-987 = 6.

[caneseddy]

00Z GFS 6MB stronger into South Florida now 987MB

It’s actually only 2mb stronger when compared to 18z.

Point is that the GFS is trending with a possible stronger storm. Katrina was 985 when she landfalled in South Florida with 80 mph winds and it was no joke.

Also Icon trended stronger; prior to this run it was showing pressures in the low 1000s; now it’s in the 990s.

Trend so far has been lower pressures, albeit slowly.

[toad strangler]

00z Gfs much stronger! 986mb

Also tracks NW into the state

https://i.imgur.com/G32WXB6.png

The vort signature on the 0z GFS looks quite impressive all things considered.

[SFLcane]

00z Gfs much stronger! 986mb

Also tracks NW into the state

https://i.imgur.com/G32WXB6.png

The vort signature on the 0z GFS looks quite impressive all things considered.

Hopefully this isn’t a sign the 00z runs will be stronger. All things considered I am expecting further northward track shifts and hurricane watches tomorrow.

[caneseddy]

00z Gfs much stronger! 986mb

Also tracks NW into the state

https://i.imgur.com/G32WXB6.png

The vort signature on the 0z GFS looks quite impressive all things considered.

Looks like going over Cuba tightens it up, which was what the HWRF showed in its earlier run

[TheStormExpert]

Definitely not much left near the center of Eta at landfall in SE Florida on the 00z GFS. As gatorcane keeps saying, this storm will be highly sheared and the effects will be felt several hundred miles away from the center.

[ElectricStorm]

0z HWRF has a Cat 1 into Cuba followed by a Cat 1 into SE FL.
So does HMON

[AutoPenalti]

0z HWRF has a Cat 1 into Cuba followed by a Cat 1 into SE FL.
So does HMON

Weaker.

[SFLcane]

06z gfs 987mb into dade county.