ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

There it is.

https://i.imgur.com/cMovLwq.png

Will they do a drop there?

[eastcoastFL]

Plenty of westerly winds found, we should see an upgrade soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NOAA2 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20200821
120330 1630N 05934W 8431 01600 0114 +192 +148 222006 008 028 000 00
120400 1628N 05934W 8417 01611 0122 +178 +152 225010 011 027 000 00
120430 1627N 05934W 8417 01610 0124 +174 +160 228009 010 027 000 00
120500 1625N 05934W 8421 01606 0125 +174 +154 247007 008 027 000 00
120530 1623N 05934W 8431 01600 0128 +174 +158 267006 006 022 000 00
120600 1621N 05934W 8433 01596 0124 +179 +144 287004 006 022 000 00
120630 1619N 05934W 8431 01601 0127 +182 +139 316003 004 021 000 00
120700 1617N 05935W 8433 01595 0122 +186 +131 316007 008 023 000 00
120730 1615N 05935W 8424 01608 0125 +178 +154 313007 008 023 000 00
120800 1613N 05934W 8415 01619 0122 +184 +160 305008 009 025 000 00
120830 1611N 05935W 8416 01618 0120 +186 +154 300007 008 025 000 00
120900 1609N 05935W 8426 01607 0123 +183 +157 302007 008 021 000 00
120930 1607N 05935W 8402 01625 0122 +181 +149 318008 009 022 000 00
121000 1605N 05935W 8417 01612 0119 +191 +135 308004 007 022 000 00
121030 1603N 05935W 8417 01613 0120 +193 +127 022003 004 023 000 00
121100 1601N 05935W 8422 01610 0122 +190 +147 338004 006 024 000 03
121130 1559N 05935W 8432 01601 0118 +192 +154 356007 008 023 000 00
121200 1557N 05936W 8434 01595 0114 +194 +160 357006 007 023 000 00
121230 1555N 05936W 8433 01598 0116 +197 +145 337006 007 026 000 00
121300 1553N 05937W 8428 01608 0117 +193 +152 269001 004 032 000 00

Probably at 11am we get Laura

[NDG]

[SFLcane]

A bit earlier then models predicted.

[stormwatcher95]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 AUG 2020 Time : 115021 UTC
Lat : 17:56:52 N Lon : 59:17:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 999.6mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 4.0

Center Temp : -57.2C Cloud Region Temp : -59.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES16
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.8 degrees

[Do_For_Love]

Wow. If it does get upgraded, that would be almost a day in advance of 5am forecast. Possibly ruling out some of the lower end outcomes?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Weatherboy1]

Plenty of westerly winds found, we should see an upgrade soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NOAA2 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20200821
120330 1630N 05934W 8431 01600 0114 +192 +148 222006 008 028 000 00
120400 1628N 05934W 8417 01611 0122 +178 +152 225010 011 027 000 00
120430 1627N 05934W 8417 01610 0124 +174 +160 228009 010 027 000 00
120500 1625N 05934W 8421 01606 0125 +174 +154 247007 008 027 000 00
120530 1623N 05934W 8431 01600 0128 +174 +158 267006 006 022 000 00
120600 1621N 05934W 8433 01596 0124 +179 +144 287004 006 022 000 00
120630 1619N 05934W 8431 01601 0127 +182 +139 316003 004 021 000 00
120700 1617N 05935W 8433 01595 0122 +186 +131 316007 008 023 000 00
120730 1615N 05935W 8424 01608 0125 +178 +154 313007 008 023 000 00
120800 1613N 05934W 8415 01619 0122 +184 +160 305008 009 025 000 00
120830 1611N 05935W 8416 01618 0120 +186 +154 300007 008 025 000 00
120900 1609N 05935W 8426 01607 0123 +183 +157 302007 008 021 000 00
120930 1607N 05935W 8402 01625 0122 +181 +149 318008 009 022 000 00
121000 1605N 05935W 8417 01612 0119 +191 +135 308004 007 022 000 00
121030 1603N 05935W 8417 01613 0120 +193 +127 022003 004 023 000 00
121100 1601N 05935W 8422 01610 0122 +190 +147 338004 006 024 000 03
121130 1559N 05935W 8432 01601 0118 +192 +154 356007 008 023 000 00
121200 1557N 05936W 8434 01595 0114 +194 +160 357006 007 023 000 00
121230 1555N 05936W 8433 01598 0116 +197 +145 337006 007 026 000 00
121300 1553N 05937W 8428 01608 0117 +193 +152 269001 004 032 000 00

Yep. Doubted the "It's just a wave" talk several hours ago … figured part of the issue was just fast motion … noted improvement in satellite presentation earlier this morning. Now we likely have a TS at 11. Can't stress enough that IF this thing stacks/strengthens earlier than expected by GFS, UKMET, Euro, etc., then it's going to impact ultimate path/track down the road. So not all clear here in South FL IMO ...

[aspen]

I was really hoping to wake up to two TCs with well-defined centers, and I got my wish. TD13 even looks a lot better this morning than last night.

[eastcoastFL]

Ok so if they both get called up to the big leagues at 11am who gets what name?

[Blown Away]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 AUG 2020 Time : 115021 UTC
Lat : 17:56:52 N Lon : 59:17:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 999.6mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 4.0

Center Temp : -57.2C Cloud Region Temp : -59.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES16
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.8 degrees

The position above is a little S and E of 8am position. Big picture it’s about the same.

[eastcoastFL]

[SFLcane]

Plenty of westerly winds found, we should see an upgrade soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NOAA2 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20200821
120330 1630N 05934W 8431 01600 0114 +192 +148 222006 008 028 000 00
120400 1628N 05934W 8417 01611 0122 +178 +152 225010 011 027 000 00
120430 1627N 05934W 8417 01610 0124 +174 +160 228009 010 027 000 00
120500 1625N 05934W 8421 01606 0125 +174 +154 247007 008 027 000 00
120530 1623N 05934W 8431 01600 0128 +174 +158 267006 006 022 000 00
120600 1621N 05934W 8433 01596 0124 +179 +144 287004 006 022 000 00
120630 1619N 05934W 8431 01601 0127 +182 +139 316003 004 021 000 00
120700 1617N 05935W 8433 01595 0122 +186 +131 316007 008 023 000 00
120730 1615N 05935W 8424 01608 0125 +178 +154 313007 008 023 000 00
120800 1613N 05934W 8415 01619 0122 +184 +160 305008 009 025 000 00
120830 1611N 05935W 8416 01618 0120 +186 +154 300007 008 025 000 00
120900 1609N 05935W 8426 01607 0123 +183 +157 302007 008 021 000 00
120930 1607N 05935W 8402 01625 0122 +181 +149 318008 009 022 000 00
121000 1605N 05935W 8417 01612 0119 +191 +135 308004 007 022 000 00
121030 1603N 05935W 8417 01613 0120 +193 +127 022003 004 023 000 00
121100 1601N 05935W 8422 01610 0122 +190 +147 338004 006 024 000 03
121130 1559N 05935W 8432 01601 0118 +192 +154 356007 008 023 000 00
121200 1557N 05936W 8434 01595 0114 +194 +160 357006 007 023 000 00
121230 1555N 05936W 8433 01598 0116 +197 +145 337006 007 026 000 00
121300 1553N 05937W 8428 01608 0117 +193 +152 269001 004 032 000 00

Yep. Doubted the "It's just a wave" talk several hours ago … figured part of the issue was just fast motion … noted improvement in satellite presentation earlier this morning. Now we likely have a TS at 11. Can't stress enough that IF this thing stacks/strengthens earlier than expected by GFS, UKMET, Euro, etc., then it's going to impact ultimate path/track down the road. So not all clear here in South FL IMO ...

Indeed watching this one closely! Considering it’s developing ahead of schedule.

[NDG]

There it is, just a wave my butt, lol.

[SFLcane]

There it is, just a wave my butt, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/W70btrk.png

[AutoPenalti]

Very, very, VERY weak center, but it was enough to classify it.

I believe HWRF 06z from yesterday had this down pat to be Laura by the morning.

[NDG]

Should see an upgrade.

URNT12 KWBC 211220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132020
A. 21/12:00:13Z
B. 16.70 deg N 059.51 deg W
C. 850 MB 1523 m
D. 1011 mb
E. 247 deg 17 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 41 kt
I. 014 deg 130 nm 11:23:08Z
J. 111 deg 42 kt
K. 011 deg 161 nm 11:14:13Z
L. 33 kt
M. 206 deg 6 nm 12:01:55Z
N. 206 deg 13 kt
O. 207 deg 9 nm 12:02:42Z
P. 17 C / 1537 m
Q. 21 C / 1523 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 13 / 8
T. 0.01 / 7 nm
U. NOAA2 0213A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 42 KT 011 / 161 NM 11:14:13Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 354 / 30 NM FROM FL CNTR

[invest man]

Got a question for those in the know. This may be a question that belongs somewhere else but here goes. Just read an article about the possibility that both 13 and 14 may come together as 1 possibly while both are in the northern Gulf. They kind of made it out that this could be a type of “perfect storm” like the one that hit the NE area a few years back that the movie was based upon. Question is, is this a possibility and if so is there any model that shows this set up and then where would it go after landfall? Article used a couple of storms that did this in the pacific a few years back. I’ve never seen this happen with 2 hurricanes or even TS’s in the Atlantic. Sorry mods if this is the wrong place to ask this question.

[eastcoastFL]

There it is, just a wave my butt, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/W70btrk.png

People just had to go and poke the beast. Some never learn. Let’s see where this goes from here.

[aspen]

Assuming the center doesn’t try to jump back up north if more convection fires up there (it’s still a weak storm and prone to center shifts), then on its current trajectory, it’ll scrape part of the PR and DR coasts. That would either put a lid on intensification, or act to help tighten it up, similar to what happened with Isaias.

[NDG]

Very, very, VERY weak center, but it was enough to classify it.

I believe HWRF 06z from yesterday had this down pat to be Laura by the morning.

That LLC should start deepening with the Convection building now building near it.