ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTPatrick]

Looks like NHC phoned in their surge forecast, shifted track but no change for the OCean Springs to Alabama line area for surge. They still have 4-7 there but i think if there was a robust cat 1 coming in slow to Hancock where they have it, some that area could approach 8-10...certainly given the many models East of them surprising they are not bumping that up to 5-9 ft

[cfisher]

Have a feeling recon might show the center shifted slightly E of the current fix.

[Jr0d]

Definitely a (spinning) hurricane now. We can clearly observe this on mimic-tpw. My fears have come to fruition. everyone got fooled today by Sally's delayed development. We have a sleeper storm. what I mean by this is that most (non-meteorological people) went to sleep thinking this was no big deal. Only to be awakened by there phones going off most probably at 5am this morning. We (could) all awaken tomorrow to a maturing hurricane with a clearing eye......hope not! Good luck! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I don't see any data to support hurricane intensity quite yet.

It looks like it's getting there. Pressure does not indicate its quite there yet either. Recon is picking up the strongest winds it has sampled so far well north east of the center.

My prediction of Sally being a hurricane was off, however it was likely much weaker than 60mph then(5pm advisory) also.

I would bet that we will start seeing the pressure fall now, and maybe sub 990mb by sunrise.

Hopefully we will have continuous recon flights now that we are getting close to landfall.

[us89]

If continental dry air is going to be an inhibiting factor when this gets closer to landfall, it certainly won't be too much of one. Take a look at the 00z sounding from Tallahassee:



Nearly saturated all the way up to the tropopause. I have one word to describe a sounding like that: tropical.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like DMAX is doing its thing

[LSU2001]

If continental dry air is going to be an inhibiting factor when this gets closer to landfall, it certainly won't be too much of one. Take a look at the 00z sounding from Tallahassee:

https://i.imgur.com/6cD3EWl.png

Nearly saturated all the way up to the tropopause. I have one word to describe a sounding like that: tropical.

We had a local met out of a NOLA station going on and on about the dry air that was being entrained into Sally. For the life of me I couldn't see any significant amount of dry air getting sucked into Sally's circulation, I don't know what she was looking at but she must have mentioned the dry air entrainment at least a dozen time in her 30 minute afternoon coverage,

[MississippiWx]

Looks like DMAX is doing its thing

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/07/GOES16-GM-07-1000x1000.gif?hash=28511

D-max won't occur for another 7-8 hours.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like NHC phoned in their surge forecast, shifted track but no change for the OCean Springs to Alabama line area for surge. They still have 4-7 there but i think if there was a robust cat 1 coming in slow to Hancock where they have it, some that area could approach 8-10...certainly given the many models East of them surprising they are not bumping that up to 5-9 ft

Going as slow as forecast it’s probably going to be coming in through more than one tidal cycle so surge maybe worse than people expect. Hopefully it’s less than expected like with Laura but I think things were different because of the angle she made her approach.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like DMAX is doing its thing

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/07/GOES16-GM-07-1000x1000.gif?hash=28511

D-max won't occur for another 7-8 hours.

My understanding was off then. I thought it began after nightfall and peaked just before sunrise.

[MississippiWx]

I think one very important thing to watch is whether Sally moves more westerly in the next 12-18 hours as opposed to WNW-NW. The models that show Sally taking a hard right into Eastern Lower Alabama/extreme Western Florida Panhandle actually have a more westward track tomorrow before a stall. The ones that take it on a more westward landfall into LA/West MS Coast basically move Sally WNW and then eventually NW in the next 18-24 hours. Sounds strange to say a more northward movement in the short term would mean a more western landfall point, but this is due to Sally remaining near a more prominent steering current. If it bends more to the left before stalling, then a hard right into AL is more likely. I'd watch for these trends as we head into tomorrow.

[Keldeo1997]

Getting close to Hurricane Force at FL

[eastcoastFL]

Have a feeling recon might show the center shifted slightly E of the current fix.

I saw a 57kt reading. Do you know if that was at the surface and if it would be enough to bump it to 65mph next advisory?

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-0519A-SALLY_zoom.png

Getting close to Hurricane Force at FL

Yah there’s a few 65kt flight level readings

[tailgater]

Latest VDM had a 31 mile wide partial eyewall so it’s doubtful their will be Rapid strengthening, but you never know.

[PTPatrick]

Looks like NHC phoned in their surge forecast, shifted track but no change for the OCean Springs to Alabama line area for surge. They still have 4-7 there but i think if there was a robust cat 1 coming in slow to Hancock where they have it, some that area could approach 8-10...certainly given the many models East of them surprising they are not bumping that up to 5-9 ft

Going as slow as forecast it’s probably going to be coming in through more than one tidal cycle so surge maybe worse than people expect. Hopefully it’s less than expected like with Laura but I think things were different because of the angle she made her approach.

Exactly...i grew up in those wetlands near the AL state line and know what a slow mover can do. The potential is there for 10 ft pretty easy if this comes in over harrison county. We had more than that in Georges. It was bigger, stronger, and angle more well suited for surge in that region, so I don’t expect this will come close to georges.

[us89]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-0519A-SALLY_zoom.png

Getting close to Hurricane Force at FL

To be fair, those are flight-level winds. surface winds based on reduction of FL winds and SFMR are probably in the 50-55 kt range based on this pass alone so far.

That said, the NE quad is clearly a lot stronger on this pass than it was the last time it was sampled on this flight. Will be curious to see if the pressure has dropped any.

[MississippiWx]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-0519A-SALLY_zoom.png

Getting close to Hurricane Force at FL

The most notable information in that set of data is the strongest winds are much closer to the center than earlier. Sally continues to gain organization.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1305345462241816576

[eastcoastFL]

I think one very important thing to watch is whether Sally moves more westerly in the next 12-18 hours as opposed to WNW-NW. The models that show Sally taking a hard right into Eastern Lower Alabama/extreme Western Florida Panhandle actually have a more westward track tomorrow before a stall. The ones that take it on a more westward landfall into LA/West MS Coast basically move Sally WNW and then eventually NW in the next 18-24 hours. Sounds strange to say a more northward movement in the short term would mean a more western landfall point, but this is due to Sally remaining near a more prominent steering current. If it bends more to the left before stalling, then a hard right into AL is more likely. I'd watch for these trends as we head into tomorrow.

Ir is interesting I was just looking at the ensemble plots and most of them seem to be west of the operational plots. So you maybe correct.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/1305256441905905664