ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[3090]

it moving along..

https://i.ibb.co/HrysFmR/Capture.png

What is the coordinate of the eye?

28.12
86.5

I see it now in the VDM. Thanks! How does that coordinate relate to its previous location?

[tropicwatch]

Think it is big enough LSU?

[hurricanehunter69]

Definitely a (spinning) hurricane now. We can clearly observe this on mimic-tpw. My fears have come to fruition. everyone got fooled today by Sally's delayed development. We have a sleeper storm. what I mean by this is that most (non-meteorological people) went to sleep thinking this was no big deal. Only to be awakened by there phones going off most probably at 5am this morning. We (could) all awaken tomorrow to a maturing hurricane with a clearing eye......hope not! Good luck! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[869MB]

https://twitter.com/NightriderFL/status/1305336770033315842

A five degree temperature difference between the inner core and outside of the eye. Not bad at all.

[CaneCurious]

Decent shift east with the 10pm update. I’m feeling a little better with being on the western side of the NOLA metro area.

[DestinHurricane]

Definitely a (spinning) hurricane now. We can clearly observe this on mimic-tpw. My fears have come to fruition. everyone got fooled today by Sally's delayed development. We have a sleeper storm. what I mean by this is that most (non-meteorological people) went to sleep thinking this was no big deal. Only to be awakened by there phones going off most probably at 5am this morning. We (could) all awaken tomorrow to a maturing hurricane with a clearing eye......hope not! Good luck! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I don't see any data to support hurricane intensity quite yet.

[Fancy1001]

https://twitter.com/NightriderFL/status/1305336770033315842

A five degree temperature difference between the inner core and outside of the eye. Not bad at all.

I have a bad feeling this may go through RI and reach category 3 by landfall, what do you think?

[Ivanhater]

From NHC discussion.


The new NHC tack forecast is slower and east
of the previous one based on the initial position/motion and the
latest models. However, the official forecast still lies west of
the latest consensus aids, so further adjustments may be necessary
overnight

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Definitely a (spinning) hurricane now. We can clearly observe this on mimic-tpw. My fears have come to fruition. everyone got fooled today by Sally's delayed development. We have a sleeper storm. what I mean by this is that most (non-meteorological people) went to sleep thinking this was no big deal. Only to be awakened by there phones going off most probably at 5am this morning. We (could) all awaken tomorrow to a maturing hurricane with a clearing eye......hope not! Good luck! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

No offense, but nothing from recon to surface observations supports anything higher than a 50kt/60 mph TS currently. There's still a slight tilt in the system, and I find it unlikely for it to be anything more than a minimal hurricane by tomorrow at noon. While it appears to be undergoing an intensification phase, I do not think it is RI. No need to throw something that is a bit overblown for the current situation.

Then again, Sally could still surprise. I have faith in the current forecast though.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/NightriderFL/status/1305336770033315842

Huh. Go figure, didnt look like much on radar but I guess I wasn’t looking in the right place

[cfisher]

Excited for this NE pass.

[bella_may]

Anyone know when the NHC will update their wind speed probability chart?

[Blow_Hard]

From NHC discussion.


The new NHC tack forecast is slower and east
of the previous one based on the initial position/motion and the
latest models. However, the official forecast still lies west of
the latest consensus aids, so further adjustments may be necessary
overnight

Kudos Ivan...you called it perfectly

[3090]

About a 20 mile shift to the east from the 4pm CDT track. Depending on final intensity it could be a significant event still for SELA. Particularly for St. Bernard parish where it is forecast to make its initial landfall and heading due north to the La/Miss. state line. Katrina like path but without the intensity. BUT if CAT 2 or greater it would still be significant and being a slow mover. Lots of water will be pushed into lake Pontchartrain causing a lot of flooding in unprotected areas without levees.

[Blow_Hard]

Anyone know when the NHC will update their wind speed probability chart?

It's out in the 10PM package. Panama City went from 27% for TS force winds this morning to 55% in the latest advisory.

[bella_may]

Anyone know when the NHC will update their wind speed probability chart?

It's out in the 10PM package. Panama City went from 27% for TS force winds this morning to 55% in the latest advisory.

Thanks. Do you have a link? I couldn’t find it

[3090]

From NHC discussion.


The new NHC tack forecast is slower and east
of the previous one based on the initial position/motion and the
latest models. However, the official forecast still lies west of
the latest consensus aids, so further adjustments may be necessary
overnight

Pretty obvious discussion. I would say more east should the model runs hold constant or show more east bias. If not the current forecast track will hold court.

[us89]

One factor that may tilt the odds towards RI (or at least close to it) is the abundance of lightning in the core with this current intensification phase.

[Stormcenter]

I reluctantly agree with you.

Definitely a (spinning) hurricane now. We can clearly observe this on mimic-tpw. My fears have come to fruition. everyone got fooled today by Sally's delayed development. We have a sleeper storm. what I mean by this is that most (non-meteorological people) went to sleep thinking this was no big deal. Only to be awakened by there phones going off most probably at 5am this morning. We (could) all awaken tomorrow to a maturing hurricane with a clearing eye......hope not! Good luck! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[ClarCari]

Interesting to note that the landfall intensity at 48hr is only lowered to 80MPH over land instead of 70. May indicate more intensification than 90mph at landfall than thought...