ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

What was the LLC currently looks stretched out. Looks like it might be getting sucked under the convective blob. IDK either that circ will have to redefine itself or a new circ will have to take over under the convection for this to get classified I think. But it has time I think we get Josephine out of this

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... t=vis-swir

[aspen]

90/90 in the latest TWO! The NHC says that advisories on a TD could be initiated later today if its organizational trend continues.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS forecasting dry-air entrainment to begin in about 50 hrs.
We will see how well this is a protected pouch then.
It'll depend on mesoscale effects which GFS can't effectively model due to spatial-resolution limitations.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1293161778407448577

[GCANE]

50 hrs out, GFS shows UL winds abating due to Anticyclone Wave Break directly to its north.
TUTT farther away to the NE.
Strengthens then as the anticyclone moves over the CoC.
Watching closely how well this protects itself from SAL.

[wxman57]

Seriously, a depression? The bar is being lowered...

[GCANE]

Too far out to call what may happen in the Bahamas come early next week.
There are indications something may develop off the east coast then due to a stalled front.
The whole dynamics of the forecast will be dramatically altered if that happens.

[drezee]

That convection is fool's gold. No upgrade until at least tomorrow AM. It needs to rebuild

[MarioProtVI]

Seriously, a depression? The bar is being lowered...

http://wxman57.com/images/95L.JPG

I think that’s the old LLC dying with a new one developing underneath. But the waning convection has me a bit skeptical. Not sure we see 11L at 11

[OuterBanker]

20% is too generous I think. Next Sunday maybe. Let's enjoy the lull this week. The real season begins next week. It will be a hum dinger I'm afraid.

I understand crow is best served fried.

[wxman57]

Seriously, a depression? The bar is being lowered...

http://wxman57.com/images/95L.JPG

I think that’s the old LLC dying with a new one developing underneath. But the waning convection has me a bit skeptical. Not sure we see 11L at 11

I agree that LLC has no future, but I don't see a new one developing. Not much of a future for this disturbance.

[GCANE]

IMHO there is enough convective debris to pinch off SAL, enough LL vort, enough warm core, and enough TPW infeed to get this to start pulsing.
Watching if the next pulse, if and when that may occur, will be closer to the CoC.

[Hurricaneman]

Seriously, a depression? The bar is being lowered...

http://wxman57.com/images/95L.JPG

Sounds like Alex doesn’t want to wait until after the 20th but that’s looking like reality as this will die out due to SAL and mjo stability

[TheStormExpert]

Seriously, a depression? The bar is being lowered...

http://wxman57.com/images/95L.JPG

I’ll say!

Maybe they see something we don’t?

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2020081112, , BEST, 0, 113N, 382W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

At 1200 UTC, 11 August 2020, LOW INVEST 95 (AL95) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 11.3°N and 38.2°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 14 kt at a bearing of 275 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it just shear that causes dissipation or is it also dry air?

[plasticup]

Seriously, a depression? The bar is being lowered...

http://wxman57.com/images/95L.JPG

Gotta satisfy that "hyperactive" prediction! 2005 was like that too - every little wisp with some spin was given a name. There were 3-4 "Tropical Storms" that lasted <24 hours.

[GCANE]

Looks like the LL Center is east of the 700mb wave peak.
It appears the two will align in 24 hrs.
This is currently SE of an Antycyclonic Wave Break.
The AWB is forecast to move south somewhat in the next 24 hrs as the CoC gets directly south of it.
This should improve chances for development as long as this can stay protected from SAL.

[wxman57]

Seriously, a depression? The bar is being lowered...

http://wxman57.com/images/95L.JPG

Gotta satisfy that "hyperactive" prediction! 2005 was like that too - every little wisp with some spin was given a name. There were 3-4 "Tropical Storms" that lasted <24 hours.

I would not accuse the NHC of falsely trying to pump up the numbers. However, the requirements for what qualifies as a named storm have changed significantly during my 40+ years as a hurricane forecaster.

[toad strangler]

Seriously, a depression? The bar is being lowered...

http://wxman57.com/images/95L.JPG

Gotta satisfy that "hyperactive" prediction! 2005 was like that too - every little wisp with some spin was given a name. There were 3-4 "Tropical Storms" that lasted <24 hours.

I would not accuse the NHC of falsely trying to pump up the numbers. However, the requirements for what qualifies as a named storm have changed significantly during my 40+ years as a hurricane forecaster.

The ability of obtaining the qualifying data has changed as well I'd confidently assume. I guess looks can be deceiving? I dunno....