ATL: HANNA - Models

[Portastorm]

Would it be safe to say the models did a very poor job anticipating Hanna less than a week or so out? I mean none of them even showed a depression in for today or
anytime this week last weekend.

You could say that ... but you'd be wrong. Both the GFS and Euro last weekend showed low pressure in the central-western Gulf of Mexico. They may not have showed a tropical storm but both strongly hinted that we would be dealing with deepening low pressure in the area where Hanna is now.

[aspen]

12z GFS has a strong TS landfall (992-993 mbar) between 18z Saturday and 00z Sunday. It seems like there’s a trend of Hanna moving slightly slower and trying to make its SW turn over water, thereby having it spend more time over the Gulf.

[stormlover2013]

Lol gfs finally caught on!!!! Smh

[NDG]

Would it be safe to say the models did a very poor job anticipating Hanna less than a week or so out? I mean none of them even showed a depression in for today or
anytime this week last weekend.

The GFS and its ensembles weere strongly showing the possibility of Hannah developing in its medium to long range over a week ago, then it was showing only weak or barely development in its short to medium range.

I started the thread on future Hannah a week ago because of the GFS. Yes, I was that bored, lol.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121012

[stormlover2013]

Euro did a pretty good job, gfs was up and down like a crazy person

[Aric Dunn]

Just FWIW

So here is the thing.. you can google it if you like ( or just look back at the data) .. once a system becomes a hurricane ( or very close ) ... The HWRF 850mb winds match more than 75 percent with RECON and advisory winds. vs the 10 m winds.
once the HWRF reaches hurricane strength the 10 m winds become way off. happens every year with nearly every hurricane.

Dorian, Michael, Florence, maria, etc. all the actual advisory wind speeds match much better with the HWRF 850 mb winds. the 10m winds were sometimes 50mph lower lol

So when looking at the HWRF stick with the 850mb winds.. and if that makes you uncomfortable .. well I am sorry. lol

[Astromanía]

GFS way lower now forecasting 201mm for me
Euro a little stronger showing 229mm

[NDG]

The strongest run yet by the HWRF.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The strongest run yet by the HWRF.

https://i.imgur.com/Oz2K16s.png

It has all the ingredients to surprise some people in southern Texas.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro 80 mph hurricane at landfall in 30 hours.

[NDG]

It also now shows landfall around 2 PM CDST. The strongest run by it so far.

[CyclonicFury]

SHIPS now has a 62 kt peak. Have to think hurricane watches will be issued soon.

[Rgv20]

18zGFS at 988mb

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro has landfall at 978mb .

[Steve]

Here's HRRR through landfall 00z, 36hour run. It doesn't get far. Drops a bit down the coast, goes in and stays along the coast for a while and moves in a little. Looks like the initial punishment is offshore, but as it moves in, the north could take a many hours battering.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2500&fh=32

[Astromanía]

GFS again showing above 300mm of rainfall acumulation for me with 303.7mm while EURO is little lower compared with the last value with 207mm, all of this is telling me I will see at least 200mm for sure in house with a media of 255.35mm, but this system can overperform with the rain as Fernand did last year then I could see much more rain for this compared with Fernand, because with Fernand they never forecasted above 200mm and I know how it ended with 350 mm

[Shell Mound]

06Z GFS shows Hanna making landfall just north of Port Mansfield, TX, with a central pressure of ~972 mb. (The 00Z run showed ~977–8 mb at landfall.)

[kevin]

06Z HWRF has a 970 mbar landfall.

06z HMON goes down to 971 mbar.

[Astromanía]

Ok Hanna just made landfall so I decided to see the rainfall forecasting one more time and what a surprise, GFS comes with 325.8mm for my area and EURO with 448.7mm! I hope I will be ok, I live very near a mountain called Topo Chico about 1110 mts on height, right now it's pretty calm after two strong rain bands but I know things are gonna turn horrible with time

[Hurricane Mike]

The hurricane models definitely did better than GFS.