EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Lol will we even get a hurricane out of this? :-p

Probably. This has ~42 hours left and shear does seem to every so slowly be relaxing (though it's likely still affecting the storm).

[aspen]

It seems like Cristina’s circulation has indeed broadened to include the mass of convection to the north. A wider circulation will make it less easy to intensify, but at least it seems to have its core finally fixed up.

[cycloneye]

Not good to see outflow boundaries like the one near Socorro Island.

[aspen]

Not good to see outflow boundaries like the one near Socorro Island.

https://i.imgur.com/pUaLF60.gif

Does that mean outflow is being suppressed, and the storm will continue to struggle?

[cycloneye]

Not good to see outflow boundaries like the one near Socorro Island.

https://i.imgur.com/pUaLF60.gif

Does that mean outflow is being suppressed, and the storm will continue to struggle?

Dry air trying to take over.

[AnnularCane]

These EPAC storms really can't seem to catch a break.

[Kingarabian]

Dry isn't usually an issue in the EPAC as long as their is little shear. Not the case here.

[aspen]

At this rate, with EPac systems getting beaten to death by unexpectedly unfavorable conditions and the WPac being completely dead, I don’t think we’ll get any worthwhile cyclones until the Atlantic starts going bananas either late this month or sometime in August.

[Kingarabian]

There might be a more compact CDO developing over the LLC. Currently, smaller is better in terms of strengthening chances.

[aspen]

What an ugly storm. And to think just 48 hours ago, we thought it had a chance of becoming a Cat 4.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

What an ugly storm. And to think just 48 hours ago, we thought it had a chance of becoming a Cat 4.

The NHC didn't

But it's a bit disappointing to see Cristina not ramp up as much as it should've given the overall favorable conditions. Still got a shot for some amount of intensification over the next day or so.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This storm is honestly turning out to be one of the biggest under-performers I have ever seen.

[aspen]

She’s looking less ugly on visible satellite imagery. Almost seems like a large eye-like feature is starting to form.

[cycloneye]

Up to 55 kts.

05E CRISTINA 200709 0000 16.1N 108.2W EPAC 55 995

[AnnularCane]

She’s looking less ugly on visible satellite imagery. Almost seems like a large eye-like feature is starting to form.

Maybe she got tired of being insulted.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 090011
TCSENP

A. 05E (CRISTINA)

B. 08/2330Z

C. 16.2N

D. 108.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 4/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=2.5 MET=3.0 PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

Interesting case of T numbers going down to change from shear to curved band pattern.

[Kingarabian]

She’s looking less ugly on visible satellite imagery. Almost seems like a large eye-like feature is starting to form.

Maybe.. Could be more dry air intrusion.




New hot tower with the sunset:

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to be a case of an eye trying to form, followed by a new burst. This will be lopsided when this does clear out which will probably limit very rapid deepening ut this still has 36 hours and shear is very low. I still like its chances at some deepening, though I don't think it's present structure favors the Category 4 we thought it could be two days ago.

[Chris90]

I actually think the NHC is being generous with 55kts, and I'm usually bullish. I think Cristina may be starting a trend headed that way, but we'll see if she keeps it up. For right now I'd actually stick with 40-45kts. I'm definitely no longer anticipating a Cat 4 either, I think that window has passed. I'm thinking 70-75kts peak at most.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

After the earlier convective hiatus, Cristina is now going through
a little bit of a bursting phase with new inner-core convection
developing just west of the center, with the latter feature showing
up quite nicely in 0139 UTC SSMI/S microwave satellite imagery. The
intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on satellite
classifications of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and 57 kt and 59 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively.

Cristina is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The strong
subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of the tropical cyclone
should keep Cristina moving in that general direction tonight,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at about the same
forward speed by Thursday morning. By 96 h and beyond, a rapidly
weakening and vertically shallow Cristina should turn westward under
the influence of brisk easterly trade wind flow. The latest NHC
model guidance remains in strong agreement on this evolving track
scenario, and the new track forecast closely follows the tightly
packed consensus models, which are a little south of the previous
advisory track.

Environmental and oceanic conditions are expected to remain
conducive for strengthening during the next 36-48 h while Cristina
remains over SSTs greater than 26 deg C. By 72 h and beyond, the
cyclone will be moving over much cooler water characterized by SSTs
near 22C by 96-120h, which is expected to induce steady weakening
despite the low vertical wind shear conditions. The new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN
intensity consensus, with Cristina still expected to become a
hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.4N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 19.2N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 20.6N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 21.0N 122.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 21.2N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 21.6N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart