ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

I guess I wouldn't be shocked if this was at 972mb in 24 hours and therefore meet the technical definition of RI, but I still just see a storm that continues to slowly organize and has improved some in the past 12 hours.

[mpic]

I have always had the idea that storms usually go east at the last minute. Don't know why I thought that but Ike was originally suppose to hit around Corpus and recently Laura went more east than predicted. Is there anything to that or just a phantom thought in my brain? Or maybe listening to the wrong forecasters?

[cfisher]

There a couple of posts definitively stating that RI is imminent. I see nothing to indicate RI beginning or imminent. Please try to state why you think RI is about to commence besides a few hot towers popping off. She may be ready to go off but I’d like to see some reasoning. Otherwise stating that RI is about to happen Is irresponsible and frankly falls into fear mongering
Just my 2 cents
Tim

It's a balance. OTOH being *too* bullish can make people take future storms less serious, but OTOH you don't have to go back very far in history to see what happens with storms in this position. This site and NHC were way too bearish on Laura, but thankfully it impacted a sparsely populated zone.

edit: also we KNOW lightning near the core is a harbringer of RI. There's no need to patronize people for making predictions based on historical data.

[LSU2001]

I guess I wouldn't be shocked if this was at 972mb in 24 hours and therefore meet the technical definition of RI, but I still just see a storm that continues to slowly organize and has improved some in the past 12 hours.

That is exactly what I am seeing slow but steady intensification. I know not to turn my back on any gulf storm but I just don’t see the rapid intensification in the cards at least with the structure she has right now. Maybe later tonight or tomorrow when she gets stacked in the mid and lower levels. Right now I am just not seeing it

[LSU2001]

There a couple of posts definitively stating that RI is imminent. I see nothing to indicate RI beginning or imminent. Please try to state why you think RI is about to commence besides a few hot towers popping off. She may be ready to go off but I’d like to see some reasoning. Otherwise stating that RI is about to happen Is irresponsible and frankly falls into fear mongering
Just my 2 cents
Tim

It's a balance. OTOH being *too* bullish can make people take future storms less serious, but OTOH you don't have to go back very far in history to see what happens with storms in this position. This site and NHC were way too bearish on Laura, but thankfully it impacted a sparsely populated zone.

edit: also we KNOW lightning near the core is a harbringer of RI. There's no need to patronize people for making predictions based on historical data.

Maybe compared to NOLA or Houston you could say Laura hit a “sparsely populated area” but I assure you here in Louisiana Laura caused massive damage all the way up the southwestern side of La. and all the way up to Monroe. Hundreds of thousands of people were directly impacted as she rode up the state.

[kthmcc7319]

How far East of the current track could Sally realistically go? I’m 50 miles east of Pensacola.

[Uptownmeow]

I’ve spent the day here in Nola gearing up and filling and setting out sandbags and doing laundry and cleaning the yard and am exhausted. If it goes East of here my family gets pummeled in MS. Long night ahead

[FixySLN]

She's flared up quite a bit over the last hour.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1305318310083395586

[cfisher]

There a couple of posts definitively stating that RI is imminent. I see nothing to indicate RI beginning or imminent. Please try to state why you think RI is about to commence besides a few hot towers popping off. She may be ready to go off but I’d like to see some reasoning. Otherwise stating that RI is about to happen Is irresponsible and frankly falls into fear mongering
Just my 2 cents
Tim

It's a balance. OTOH being *too* bullish can make people take future storms less serious, but OTOH you don't have to go back very far in history to see what happens with storms in this position. This site and NHC were way too bearish on Laura, but thankfully it impacted a sparsely populated zone.

edit: also we KNOW lightning near the core is a harbringer of RI. There's no need to patronize people for making predictions based on historical data.

Maybe compared to NOLA or Houston you could say Laura hit a “sparsely populated area” but I assure you here in Louisiana Laura caused massive damage all the way up the southwestern side of La. and all the way up to Monroe. Hundreds of thousands of people were directly impacted as she rode up the state.

It's certainly not unreasonable to say Laura made landfall in an unpopulated area.

[DestinHurricane]

How far East of the current track could Sally realistically go? I’m 50 miles east of Pensacola.

You must be in/near Destin. I have family there. I think the most east it realistically could go is P'cola but we've seen crazier things before. If it trends stronger and slower it should shift east more than where they have it now.

Destin would still have significant surge if it was strong and into Pcola or even gulf shores.

[bella_may]

She's flared up quite a bit over the last hour.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1305318310083395586

Look at all the lightning showing up. I’m no pro but that usually means intensification

[Do_For_Love]

It looks to me like the area of heavy convection near center has expanded quite a bit. What that means in terms of being stacked and how fast Sally will intensify, I have no idea lol. But it sure looks like she's on an upswing.

[ronjon]

Appears on long range radar that Sally is tracking a little north of the NHC track.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[BensonTCwatcher]

Definately steadily intensifying. if it keeps this kind of convection going overnight, on her way to RI. I would not say that it is in RI though. HWRF has is stacking up about now but shows a few setbacks along the way. Seems to be pretty close. Was comparing radar to IR and can only see the tallest towers this far from the sites, but most intense convection does appear to be wrapping fully around the center. Much more stacked last 3 hrs.

[DestinHurricane]

Appears on long range radar that Sally is tracking a little north of the NHC track.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Not surprising as it is stronger than models expected.

[TallahasseeMan]

Sally does not have to rapidly intensify tonight to be a very powerful hurricane at landfall considering we’re still 36-40 hours away from that.


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[pcolaman]

So she is finally vertical stacked ? So I wonder what kind of intensification she will show us for the next 24 hours or more.

[MidnightRain]

Sally does not have to rapidly intensify tonight to be a very powerful hurricane at landfall considering we’re still 36-40 hours away from that.


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Speeding up would be a welcomed surprise.

[PandaCitrus]

I mean technically that is correct. Cameron County is very sparsely populated. But 30 miles inland the Lake Charles metro got hammered with the eye and had 200,000+ people. There was a tremendous amount of damage from probably no worse than Cat 2/3 winds.

It's a balance. OTOH being *too* bullish can make people take future storms less serious, but OTOH you don't have to go back very far in history to see what happens with storms in this position. This site and NHC were way too bearish on Laura, but thankfully it impacted a sparsely populated zone.

edit: also we KNOW lightning near the core is a harbringer of RI. There's no need to patronize people for making predictions based on historical data.

Maybe compared to NOLA or Houston you could say Laura hit a “sparsely populated area” but I assure you here in Louisiana Laura caused massive damage all the way up the southwestern side of La. and all the way up to Monroe. Hundreds of thousands of people were directly impacted as she rode up the state.

It's certainly not unreasonable to say Laura made landfall in an unpopulated area.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ed/Louisiana_population_map.png

[us89]

Sally does not have to rapidly intensify tonight to be a very powerful hurricane at landfall considering we’re still 36-40 hours away from that.


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Official RI definition is a 30 kt increase in 24 hr, which is a rate of 1.25 kt/hr. Assuming Sally makes landfall in exactly 40 hours, if she intensified at exactly that rate for the rest of her time over water, she'd be a major at landfall.