ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

it is doing a cyclonic loop gaining some rotational energy I see some bubbles popping up near the center .... a little land interaction to kick things off as it crawls to the coast.. maybe.... maybe.. some convection to actually bring those winds down..

[toad strangler]

I'd say this was pretty well modeled and the GFS did a good job.

[NDG]

I'd say this was pretty well modeled and the GFS did a good job.

Yep, the GFS did pretty well in at least not blowing up the system in the GOM like the Euro did at times. It was also the first one to sniff development near C.A. on its long range.

[northjaxpro]

I'd say this was pretty well modeled and the GFS did a good job.

I think it did too for the most part. GFS generally does very well and has a very good track record in the past modeling early season large gyres, and June GOM tropical cyclones.

[psyclone]

This is also another early season gulf storm the ended up right of initial forecasts. that seems to happen frequently. But the overall theme of a Louisiana landfall and big rains well east verified nicely. Hopefully everyone in the hot zone has an interesting weather day and things don't get too crazy.

[NDG]

This is as good as it has gotten on vis satellite ever since it got out into the GOM. It has that look of a subtropical system that typically happens in the middle of the Atlantic in mid latitudes. Dry air and interaction with the ULL low yesterday has giving it this look, IMO.
But for this time of the year, is not a bad looking system and we are not having to argue where it extra tropical or not

[FLpanhandle91]

Here in Fort Walton Beach watching my Ambient Weather WS-2902 sensor. Lots of sunshine in between these isolated cells coming onshore.
Current temp: 78.4
Dewpoint: 77.7
Humidity: 95%
Pressure: 998.5mb and falling
Peak gust: 25.1mph
Rainfall total: 3.26"

Just feels like there is plenty of fuel for these bands to really blow up later in the afternoon.

You can follow my live conditions here if you'd like!
https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/57 ... 3b48efe215

[MidnightRain]

I was really confused when I heard about the landfall almost happening, as I thought they said previously that landfall wasn't expected until Sunday Night. The storm must have really sped up.


So very glad that it's not amounting to much though, hence the slow storm thread ............It will be interesting to watch what develops next.... Gonna be a busy season!

Is it me or do a lot of storms generally hit ahead of schedule compared to the official track? I don’t have data to back this up, it just feels like more times than not it turns out at least a few hours faster than forecasted.

[bella_may]

Huge band about to come into mobile

[wxman57]

Breezy nothing major here in Biloxi lots of rain got our first tornado warning radar implied.It looks by satellite that the storm is tightening up some due to land interaction since what it looked like a few hours ago looking more tropical.The system still looks to more of a rain event than anything. Kevin

I had to call out for work. Biblial rains have flooded my only way out.

Can't tell where you are from your data on S2K. You might edit your profile and put in a general location.

[Craters]

*** Sorry to be off-topic, but has something happened to the Models thread? I've been trying to check in there, but the posts have been frozen since early yesterday afternoon. Even restarted the computer, thinking it was something here, but no joy. ***

Thanks...

Mark

[tailgater]

One more cyclonic loop and Cristobal will set the record for TC’s lost at sea. Come on little doggie, mov along, haha

[tolakram]

*** Sorry to be off-topic, but has something happened to the Models thread? I've been trying to check in there, but the posts have been frozen since early yesterday afternoon. Even restarted the computer, thinking it was something here, but no joy. ***

Thanks...

Mark

No issue, though model threads usually slow down as a storm nears the coast.

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=4528.75&y=5409.7841796875

[Stormcenter]

Cristobal continues to get better organized as he meanders in the GOM. IMO

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

[tolakram]

SLIDER Mesoscale1 view

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=28&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1076.4346542358398&y=699.948860168457

[Jr0d]

Very odd. The LLC is wobbling east giving Cristobal a few more hours of being over the water and a tiny window to strengthen a little.

[wx98]

Slowing down on approach:

1:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 7
Location: 28.8°N 89.9°W
Moving: N at 5 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

There is a low level swirl doing a swing around to the East, likely rotating around the true center.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I would not be surprised to see the main mesovortex rotate around the center and make a "landfall" at the mouth of the Mississippi. There's not a whole lot of anything associated with it and it may run out of time to establish itself as the new center.

Cristobal as a whole looks a little better than it did 6 hours ago, but who knows if that remains to be the case. Gyre-like systems tend to have issues with continuing any sort of strengthening trend.

[wx98]

It is nearing Barataria Bay near Grand Isle, west of the mouth of the Mississippi. That swirl will probably swing back north as it dances around and comes on in around Grand Isle in a few more hours.