ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

Where's the beef or in this case west wind? Wicked Witch of the West not giving it up yet. Can't remember how many rotating strong tropical waves I've witnessed over the years that look like a TS with no west wind at the surface. PTC9 is still moving too briskly to close off. Likely will when it slows down. The longer that takes to happen the further west it will go IMO. I'm just hoping it has a date with Hispaniola and gets shredded....MGC

[NDG]

At this point my best guess for a track would be to close my eyes and draw a line.

Which is exactly what I did:

https://i.imgur.com/mT85lKg.png

I agree, the Euro has been persistent in the vorticity reforming near the northern coast of Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

Essentially the only way this gets north of the islands is if a reformation happens.

[GCANE]

HH climbing, think they are headed home.

They're climbing out.
Still an open wave.

[EquusStorm]

Definitely the most impressive PTC/wave I've ever seen this morning! Hard to get a fully stacked and closed LLC while moving really quickly but if it doesn't slow down and close off soon I'll be very shocked.

Imagine before the PTC designation was introduced, this being tracked as a 90/90 wave until a closed LLC was confirmed and the mass raging at the lack of any classification lol

[nativefloridian]

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 480&y=7582

To my untrained eye, the area just west of Dominica appears to be a center of circulation...IMO

[SFLcane]

Essentially the only way this gets north of the islands is if a reformation happens.

Then it’s game over. I would say

[chaser1]

OMG?? Who poked the tiger?!! Just woke up to the visible satellite and this thing is finally doing it's thing. Establishing a CDO, explosive outflow, and the broad circulation becoming much less elliptical. I'll admit that I thought this was going to need an additional 12-24 hr.'s to really coalesce but it's starting to happen now. It may or may not have a defined COC yet but just like a Spring-time two mile wide tube dropping to the ground in the Central Plains, this is REALLY REALLY taking on a very ominous look for the first time. I have repeated ad nauseam that this might well wait until entering "the graveyard" and then start going nuts. Well, pass the planters peanuts cuz there'll be plenty to go around. In this classic strong easterly surge pattern, the LLC typically lags behind (or east) of center and/or should be tilted east to west in terms of aligning with the MLC. If the convective pattern continues, we should soon begin to see some better indication of banding start to occur in the right semi-circle just east or a bit southeast of the convection. That is unless of course a COC begins to pop smack within the CDO. Appears to me to be tracking about 280. Anyone up for a cruise through the Windward Passage?

[GCANE]

I think you can pretty much scratch FL off the list.
Start thinking more about the West Carib / GoM

[jaxfladude]

Welp that track I saw on a local Jacksonville Florida news station sure was a flashback to Irma but much much much weaker than she was....fingers crossed

[BobHarlem]

This is the track I am thinking

https://i.imgur.com/5VtfTqX.jpg

This track is similar (just west) of 2006's Ernesto (Which defied the models by continuing to push west), but good luck going through the old topics on it as back then there was a 25 page limit. 9 seems to be following the general climatological rule of thumb, weaker typically goes west.

[b0tzy29]

This is starting to look more and more organized to me. Almost as if its saying - "Do i have everyone's attention now?!"

[AutoPenalti]

This needs to pull up FAST if it's going to survive.

[psyclone]

[quote="ScottNAtlanta"]This is the track I am thinking

I can see that one out my front door!

[Evil Jeremy]

Can't recall the last time I've seen so much disagreement for a non-cyclone. It's heading west. It's clearly going WNW. Convection is bouncing NW. It's an open wave. It's about to close off. North of Hispaniola. South of Hispaniola. Shear and dry air will kill it North of the islands. The heat content is ripe for intensification. Florida can take a nap now. Florida's got to keep it's eyes open.

Man, I can only imagine what the NHC has been debating internally for the past week. I'm still in awe at Stewart's excellent discussion from last night. I can only wonder what Avila's rebuttal would have been...

I think we can all agree that we are lucky this system's gargantuan footprint and fast pace across the Atlantic prevented what could have been a much worse situation for the NE Caribbean today.

[tropicwatch]

I think you can pretty much scratch FL off the list.
Start thinking more about the West Carib / GoM

Florida does have a coastline along the Gulf of Mexico ya know

[tiger_deF]

https://media.giphy.com/media/J1GUQl58tAUx0fACPw/giphy.gif

This is starting to look more and more organized to me. Almost as if its saying - "Do i have everyone's attention now?!"

Looks like it is tripping over SA on it's journey from a horizontally tilted wave axis to a vertically tilted, more stacked one

[HurricaneFrances04]

Eric Blake seemed to disagree with Stewart this morning:

The cyclone will probably take some time to recover after
moving over the very high mountains of Hispaniola, and some of the
guidance after that time shows an increase in southwesterly shear
over the Straits of Florida that could limit the potential of the
cyclone. Simply put, there are a lot of hurdles in the system's
way, so it is best to stay on the conservative side at the moment
and continue to stress the large uncertainty after it leaves the
Caribbean. Little change was made to the forecast intensity,
although the guidance has come down at longer range for many of the
models.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I can only wonder what Avila's rebuttal would have been...

I think we can all agree that we are lucky this system's gargantuan footprint and fast pace across the Atlantic prevented what could have been a much worse situation for the NE Caribbean today.

Avila's rebuttal would have been short. Point made...done. He was never one for excess verbiage.

[Dean4Storms]

Much closer, maybe this afternoon. Think it has a shot of riding on the South edge of Hispaniola.