ATL: ETA - Models

[Blown Away]

Also, notice the 18z GFS almost moves outside the NHC cone with its SFL landfall... Odd to have a global like GFS out of the 3-5 day cone.

[AdamFirst]

Also, notice the 18z GFS almost moves outside the NHC cone with its SFL landfall... Odd to have a global like GFS out of the 3-5 day cone.

I would say they're still in the cone...just barely though

[Miami Storm Tracker]

On the approach we may be on the less rain side, but once it turns back to the west, S Fla get both the wind event and the rain

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF running... At @27 hours a bit faster, SE, and strong TS already compared to 12z...

[AdamFirst]

On the approach we may be on the less rain side, but once it turns back to the west, S Fla get both the wind event and the rain

There is a ton of precursor moisture expected over the next few days anyway, even before Eta gets close. It's already started today. The GFS wouldn't be the ideal scenario either as the storm's circulation will continue rotating in bands of showers over SFL well into Wednesday, just adding into the totals.

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF... @40 hours may be a Cat 1... Circulation much more defined, no 2 lows competing, and notice a difference in GFS/HWRF past few runs, they show all that convection to the E and it appears the low is getting pulled faster and faster to the convection each run, resulting in farther E movement.

Also, full degree SE at @40 hours compared to 12z...

[Blown Away]

18z HMON... Much faster and @981 mb Strong Cat 1 just SE of Miami @63 hours moving NW.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Any chance of posting those runs please.

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF... @1.5 degrees farther E @78.5W before making N turn...

18z HMON... Landfall Miami Beach @66 hrs... 982 mb Cat 1/2... Then NW across state...

[Spacecoast]

Levi: (As it it crosses Cuba), "..whether it gets strong, (or not),will depend on where it is in relation to this 'tongue' of dry air."

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Some of these forecast on the networks keep showing a very distinct sharp west turn, not sure I buy into such a sharp turn,

[WeatherHoon]

This looks like it could catch Florida residents off guard.

[SFLcane]

Hmon much stronger and hwrf also east

[SFLcane]

Any chance of posting those runs please.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1324495294432710657

[AdamFirst]

HWRF with a moderate TS into Fort Lauderdale moving east to west (around 72hr). Lots of heavy rain.

[Blown Away]

18z HMON...

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF...

[Blown Away]

18z models show strengthening systems once they make that NW turn. I would estimate in the 60-85 mph range...

[TheStormExpert]

It looks like the sudden turn will happen in 72hrs. So depending on where Eta is then will determine if it makes landfall in Florida or not. The NHC has Eta still directly over Central Cuba in 72hrs. this the turn being further south.