ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

30 mph & 1007 MB

[tomatkins]

Yes. Not to restart an OT ACE discussion, but ACE is very biased towards long lived open ocean systems, whose existence or absence doesn't per se determine how active or conductive a season is. But it does mostly determine the ACE, therefore putting seasons like 2020 with a more active Gulf compared to the open ocean at a disadvtange ACE wise. A season with a closed open ocean but hyperactive Gulf can still be hyperactive, but if you'd only use ACE it would be near impossible for such a season to reach hyperactive levels without at least one long lived storm in the Atlantic.

This is true - but most of 2005s ACE didn't come from open ocean storms. Only Emily was really a high intensity long tracker. You just had some real high end Gulf and Caribbean storms that lasted a while, where storms this year didn't quite max out so high and generally moved faster. Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma vs say Laura, Sally, Delta, and Zeta.

[SconnieCane]

Yes. Not to restart an OT ACE discussion, but ACE is very biased towards long lived open ocean systems, whose existence or absence doesn't per se determine how active or conductive a season is. But it does mostly determine the ACE, therefore putting seasons like 2020 with a more active Gulf compared to the open ocean at a disadvtange ACE wise. A season with a closed open ocean but hyperactive Gulf can still be hyperactive, but if you'd only use ACE it would be near impossible for such a season to reach hyperactive levels without at least one long lived storm in the Atlantic.

This is true - but most of 2005s ACE didn't come from open ocean storms. Only Emily was really a high intensity long tracker. You just had some real high end Gulf and Caribbean storms that lasted a while, where storms this year didn't quite max out so high and generally moved faster. Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma vs say Laura, Sally, Delta, and Zeta.

Laura could have generated a lot more ACE had it not hugged the GA for so long.

[Laminar]

Lets put our ACES back in our pants and get back to the subject at hand...

[us89]

Yes. Not to restart an OT ACE discussion, but ACE is very biased towards long lived open ocean systems, whose existence or absence doesn't per se determine how active or conductive a season is. But it does mostly determine the ACE, therefore putting seasons like 2020 with a more active Gulf compared to the open ocean at a disadvtange ACE wise. A season with a closed open ocean but hyperactive Gulf can still be hyperactive, but if you'd only use ACE it would be near impossible for such a season to reach hyperactive levels without at least one long lived storm in the Atlantic.

This is true - but most of 2005s ACE didn't come from open ocean storms. Only Emily was really a high intensity long tracker. You just had some real high end Gulf and Caribbean storms that lasted a while, where storms this year didn't quite max out so high and generally moved faster. Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma vs say Laura, Sally, Delta, and Zeta.

And this is why ACE is a flawed measurement to start with. If you look at 2020, the individual cyclone that produced the most ACE by far was Teddy with around 27 units. Paulette and Delta both produced around 15 units, and despite its impressive peak intensity, Laura only produced 12. Nothing else has produced over 10 ACE units, and only three other storms (Isaias, Sally, Zeta) were over 4. It seems simply unfair that a storm like cat-2 Paulette could outperform nearly-cat-5 Laura, but that's how the math works out.

ACE is heavily weighted against storms that rapidly intensify into landfalls - which have not been hard to come by this season. These are also the types of storms that are the most impactful to lives and property.

[Deshaunrob17]

Yes. Not to restart an OT ACE discussion, but ACE is very biased towards long lived open ocean systems, whose existence or absence doesn't per se determine how active or conductive a season is. But it does mostly determine the ACE, therefore putting seasons like 2020 with a more active Gulf compared to the open ocean at a disadvtange ACE wise. A season with a closed open ocean but hyperactive Gulf can still be hyperactive, but if you'd only use ACE it would be near impossible for such a season to reach hyperactive levels without at least one long lived storm in the Atlantic.

This is true - but most of 2005s ACE didn't come from open ocean storms. Only Emily was really a high intensity long tracker. You just had some real high end Gulf and Caribbean storms that lasted a while, where storms this year didn't quite max out so high and generally moved faster. Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma vs say Laura, Sally, Delta, and Zeta.

Laura could have generated a lot more ACE had it not hugged the GA for so long.

Plus I believe the parade of MDR systems in September formed too far North... Example if Paulette had moved more south, it would have missed the shear and be a long tracked hurricane. Rene and Vicki basically went right into the shear too

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Re: ACE, I'd rather take the long-tracked storm I know is coming vs. the surprise powerful hurricanes we've been seeing right at landfall this year.

Back to the topic at hand, 96L still has a lot of work to do, but the environment does look primed for quick intensification unfortunately.

[Iceresistance]

Dvorak says that 96L it too weak to classify.

[NDG]

By looking at the satellite this morning, it appears 96L already has a very small LLC racing to the west, ASCAT may not even catch it.
Will not really organize much until it gets to the central Caribbean.

[ClarCari]

There’s people posting in an ACE discussion in Talkin’ Tropics right now. It’d be better to join them about ACE there.

96L has so far the most ominous early signs of a system this season. Usually there’s one or two “doubts” that may or may not impede something, but this system has a basically perfect setup and it just now entered the Caribbean...

[GCANE]

Been seeing a couple east-to-west moving towers this morning around the cold pool that I think has developed at the top of the wave axis

[AutoPenalti]

By looking at the satellite this morning, it appears 96L already has a very small LLC racing to the west, ASCAT may not even catch it.
Will not really organize much until it gets to the central Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/jchqEIA.jpg

LLC either gets tucked in beneath all that convection or the LLC dies and a new one forms below it.

[GCANE]

This does seem to indicate there is indeed a cold pool.
No warm core yet though.

[NDG]

There is my LLC 5 hours ago.

[Aric Dunn]

By looking at the satellite this morning, it appears 96L already has a very small LLC racing to the west, ASCAT may not even catch it.
Will not really organize much until it gets to the central Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/jchqEIA.jpg

westerly inflow cloud lines have been steadily increasing all morning on the south side as the convection has been building.

as it slows down later today and tonight it will likely start to take of very quickly.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT just missed the system at 9:08 AM CDT.

[tiger_deF]

ASCAT just missed the system at 9:08 AM CDT.

The sun also rose this morning

[AnnularCane]

Kind of off topic, I guess, but am I the only one constantly reading CA initially as California? It's driving me nuts.

[kevin]

Kind of off topic, I guess, but am I the only one constantly reading CA initially as California? It's driving me nuts.

Haha, I know 2020 is a crazy season, but an Atlantic storm somehow landfalling in California is a bit too much .

[CourierPR]

Kind of off topic, I guess, but am I the only one constantly reading CA initially as California? It's driving me nuts.

Yes, we all have to learn the jargon with that and words like bury and eject.