ATL: BETA - Models

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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#121 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:53 pm

HWRF chases its tail in circles for days before making landfall in extreme southern Texas. Its actually the weaker of the solutions so far.

CMC fakes towards texas and then busts a UTurn and heads for Florida.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#122 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:55 pm

00z ICON whacks the entire northern gulf coast. No spot left untouched

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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#123 Postby catskillfire51 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:01 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:HWRF chases its tail in circles for days before making landfall in extreme southern Texas. Its actually the weaker of the solutions so far.

CMC fakes towards texas and then busts a UTurn and heads for Florida.


what site are you using to see the latest models or are you looking at earlier model runs?
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#124 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:04 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#125 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:10 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63



Bold mine.

Wow.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#126 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:12 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63



Bold mine.

Wow.

the track and intensity on this is scary if that verified.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#127 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:18 pm

Yikes @ the 00z UKMET, that could put entire northern Gulf coast and west coast of Florida in danger. This season has just been unreal for the Gulf, and we could looking at one of the wildest track in decades here.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#128 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:20 pm

Models been so bad this year it’s wild
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#129 Postby xironman » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:48 am

The Ukie is aggressive

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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#130 Postby Fancy1001 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:43 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63

What model is this?
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#131 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:12 am

Fancy1001 wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63

What model is this?


UK Met Office model.
The full output can be found here: https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#132 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:26 am

Anybody up for a game of ping pong between S Texas and the Yucatan?

Image
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#133 Postby Fancy1001 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:07 am

Extratropical94 wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63

What model is this?


UK Met Office model.
The full output can be found here: https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt

Thank you.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#134 Postby HurryKane » Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:21 am

Extratropical94 wrote:Anybody up for a game of ping pong between S Texas and the Yucatan?

https://i.imgur.com/CCFubKT.gif



:eek: I think this is the part where we all just say go home, 2020, you’re drunk and you soiled your britches.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#135 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:45 am

Extratropical94 wrote:Anybody up for a game of ping pong between S Texas and the Yucatan?

https://i.imgur.com/CCFubKT.gif


Lol....crazy man
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#136 Postby catskillfire51 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:49 am

06z HWRF
Image
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#137 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:09 am

That HWRF forecast, if it happens, could be a major flooding event. It just gets stuck there in Texas. I am not sure I buy that, I do think a trof will come pick this up but when?
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#138 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:19 am

6zECMWF stalls TD 22 Over Brownsville for about a day than drifts east than north to end the run at 90hrs. Would be a major flooding event for coastal counties of deep south texas if it were to verified.

Image
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#139 Postby catskillfire51 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:19 am

BigB0882 wrote:That HWRF forecast, if it happens, could be a major flooding event. It just gets stuck there in Texas. I am not sure I buy that, I do think a trof will come pick this up but when?


I agree, seems like all the models get it to the mid Texas Coast then back off shore, after that it seems like throwing a dart anywhere along the gulf.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#140 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:18 am

This thread is awfully quiet. I guess it's because the models are all over the place. :lol:

06Z GFS continues to show it crawling up the Texas coast then going over Houston as a sloppy mess. Different than Harvey in that it at least moves out pretty quick.
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