WPAC: HAISHEN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#121 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:27 am

Yeah, it'll probably wrap up pretty quickly here before it hits its most significant stretch of strengthening. The 18Z RIPA 24 hour RI probabilities were very salty.

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 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1301357157397532673


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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#122 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:35 am

Looks like the ERC is finishing up. Should bomb out tomorrow.

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#123 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:02 am

Bombs to 917 in 36 hours

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42

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#124 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:03 am

Latest Euro run switched back to Japan landfall

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UK more east too.

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Rest...

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#125 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:37 am

 https://twitter.com/ptccfeed/status/1301397244533383170


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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#126 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:12 am

TPPN10 PGTW 030626

A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISEN)

B. 03/0600Z

C. 20.61N

D. 137.76E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, AND
ADDED 0.5 FOR BF, TO YIELD A DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#127 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:07 am

Ramping up

TPPN10 PGTW 030928

A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)

B. 03/0850Z

C. 20.81N

D. 137.12E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET YIELDED 5.5 WHILE PT YIELDED 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0411Z 20.37N 138.00E MMHS
03/0634Z 20.88N 137.80E SSMI


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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#128 Postby NotoSans » Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:04 am

 https://twitter.com/homosapieninhk/status/1301475877344014336


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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#129 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:15 am

The EWRC should end soon. Microwave imagery shows only the new eyewall remains. However, IR imagery still clearly shows the inner eyewall, so I don’t know what’s happening.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#130 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:36 am

This is going to take a while. That original pinhole eye does not want to go.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#131 Postby NotoSans » Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:08 am

Personal Dvorak fix would be T5.5/5.5 at 12Z.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#132 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:29 am

The pinhole eye is getting better defined on IR imagery...it’s like an inverse EWRC.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#133 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:48 am

TPPN10 PGTW 031223

A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)

B. 03/1200Z

C. 20.96N

D. 136.56E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0634Z 20.88N 137.80E SSMI
03/0702Z 20.78N 137.40E SSMS
03/0928Z 20.92N 137.08E SSMS


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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#134 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 03, 2020 8:11 am

Now the inner eyewall is finally fully collapsing. Convection around it associated with the new outer eyewall is expanding and cooling significantly. That new eye should be clearing within 6-12 hours.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#135 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 03, 2020 8:17 am

11W HAISHEN 200903 1200 21.0N 136.5E WPAC 100 957
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#136 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 03, 2020 8:23 am

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#137 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:13 am

Haishen reminds me a lot of Hagibis when it went through its EWRC after developing a pinhole eye. Once that new eye clears out, it should go nuclear.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#138 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:45 am

Current satellite presentation reminds me of Super Typhoon Jangmi at peak - one huge CDO surrounded by moat in all quadrants then spiral bands.
Last edited by mrbagyo on Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#139 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:48 am

The shear is extremely low, but the inner eyewall won't erode. Looked like it would last night...

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#140 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:57 am

Highteeld wrote:The shear is extremely low, but the inner eyewall won't erode. Looked like it was last night...

https://i.imgur.com/sdVDGMD.png

It’s odd that the tiny remnants of the inner eyewall don’t want to go away, despite the massive outer eyewall choking it out.
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