EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

Since the previous advisory, Cristina's well-defined low-level
center became briefly exposed for a couple of hours, likely
resulting in a slight spin-down of the vortex. However, deep
convection has recently redeveloped over and southwest of the
center, so the intensity will be held at 40 kt for this advisory,
which is a blend of TAFB and SAB subjective satellite
classifications, and the most recent downward-trending UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate of T2.9/43 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The latest NHC
model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Cristina moving
west-northwestward south of a nearly stationary deep-layer
subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. The new NHC forecast track is
a tad north of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the
tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models.

High-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite imagery indicates that
Cristina's center has been moving closer to the center of the
synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone where the vertical wind shear
should be lower. The recent burst of deep convection near the center
could the beginning stages of more significant strengthening owing
to the lower shear, high mid-level humidity near 80 percent, and
sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) near 29C. Therefore, steady
strengthening is forecast for the next 60 h while the cyclone
remains over warm SSTs, and a period of rapid intensification (RI)
is still possible during the next couple of days. By 72 h and
beyond, however, Cristina will be moving over sub-26 deg C SSTs that
will decrease to about 22C by 120 h, with the much cooler water
inducing steady weakening on days 4-5. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the IVCN intensity guidance through 36 hours, and
then is slightly higher than the guidance in order to maintain
continuity with the previous intensity forecast and also due to the
possibility of RI occurring.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.8N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 14.7N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 15.9N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.8N 112.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 18.8N 114.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 21.4N 121.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 22.1N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

Looking much better tonight but the center is still NE of the CDO. Think the convection will pull it SW and hopefully it can start ramping up for real.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 080552
TCSENP

A. 05E (CRISTINA)

B. 08/0530Z

C. 13.4N

D. 105.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...1/3 DEGREE INTO DG FOR A DT=3.5. MET=3.0. PT=3.0. FT IS
BASED ON MET SINCE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CRISTINA EP052020 07/08/20 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 53 63 69 72 72 67 61 53 46 37 31 26 22
V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 53 63 69 72 72 67 61 53 46 37 31 26 22
V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 44 49 54 55 53 48 42 37 32 28 24 21 17
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 14 10 8 5 12 17 15 9 4 3 3 5 11 11 14 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 -5 -2 0 -3 -6 -4 -1 -4 0 -2 0 2 2 3
SHEAR DIR 11 7 355 36 63 52 49 41 60 29 60 285 293 283 293 276 271
SST (C) 29.4 28.7 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.1 26.0 24.0 23.7 23.0 22.5 22.9 22.1 22.6 23.2 23.8
POT. INT. (KT) 160 152 147 148 145 144 135 124 104 101 93 88 92 84 89 95 101
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 79 79 78 78 78 79 73 69 63 58 56 54 51 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 19 21 24 26 28 29 28 27 23 22 18 16 14 11
850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 3 11 11 29 38 52 67 93 121 128 133 127 107 81 67
200 MB DIV 105 122 151 150 113 72 55 34 25 34 28 -8 0 -21 -6 -3 -16
700-850 TADV -9 -6 0 -3 -4 0 -5 -6 -7 0 -2 4 2 -3 8 3 12
LAND (KM) 585 593 599 603 629 687 674 732 808 970 1099 1298 1545 1787 1941 1852 1580
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.8 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.3 21.6 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.0 108.0 108.9 109.8 111.6 113.5 115.6 118.0 120.6 123.2 125.9 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12
HEAT CONTENT 29 18 13 11 9 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. 10. 7. 5. 2. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 13. 11. 6. 4. -0. -2. -5. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 23. 29. 32. 32. 27. 21. 13. 6. -3. -9. -14. -18.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 106.0

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 6.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 4.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.83 8.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.91 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 30.3% 27.5% 19.2% 14.5% 22.8% 22.0% 10.8%
Logistic: 2.7% 27.2% 15.8% 9.0% 2.8% 15.8% 13.5% 2.5%
Bayesian: 0.5% 3.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.1% 20.2% 15.2% 9.5% 5.8% 13.1% 11.9% 4.4%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

LLC continues to be tugged SW closer to the center of that big ball of convection. I think it's on the right track.

[Kingarabian]

WTPZ45 KNHC 080832
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

Satellite images indicate that deep convection has been gradually
increasing in association with Cristina during the past several
hours. However, the storm still lacks banding features and the
low-level center is located on the northeastern side of the
convection due to moderate wind shear. An ASCAT-B overpass from a
few hours ago showed maximum winds of only 30-35 kt in the
southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for
this advisory blending the ASCAT data with the 3.0/45 kt Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Cristina is forecast to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist air
mass for the next couple of days. These favorable conditions
combined with lessening wind shear should promote steady
strengthening during the next two days or so. However, beyond that
time, Cristina is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 C and
into a progressively drier and more stable environment. These
negative factors for the cyclone should promote weakening after 48
hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is again nudged downward
from the previous one, but it still lies at the high end of
the guidance in the short term in case Cristina takes advantage of
the generally conducive conditions for intensification.

The tropical storm has turned a little to the left recently, but
its longer term motion is still west-northwestward at 13 kt. A
deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to
remain stationary, and that should cause the cyclone to continue
moving west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the
next 4 days or so. By the end of the forecast period, a slight
turn to the west is forecast as the weakening system is expected to
be steered by the low-level flow. The track models are tightly
packed, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 13.9N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 14.9N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 17.1N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 18.0N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 19.0N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 21.9N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 3.0 3.3

[aspen]

Looks like it’s developed a CCC. That’s a bad sign for intensification.

[AnnularCane]

Looks like it’s developed a CCC. That’s a bad sign for intensification.

What is a CCC and why is it a bad sign for intensification? She's looking pretty robust.

[aspen]

Looks like it’s developed a CCC. That’s a bad sign for intensification.

What is a CCC and why is it a bad sign for intensification? She's looking pretty robust.

I’m probably not the best person to explain it, but it’s kind of like a “shield” of cold cloud tops, and it indicates that the core is disrupted with little development. An extreme example of a CCC was seen with Kammuri last year, which reached temperatures of -107 C and was roughly as wide as Texas. However, the core has been heavily damaged by shear in the lower levels, and the system was no more than 50 kt.

[cycloneye]

Up to 45 kts.

05E CRISTINA 200708 1200 14.2N 106.5W EPAC 45 1003

[aspen]

July 6th: this has a good chance of getting to 115-130 kt

July 7th: ...maybe 85 kt is a possibility?

July 8th: just get above 50 kt, PLEASE

[Yellow Evan]

This isn't really a CCC. We need some good microwave passes.

[cycloneye]

60 kts.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

...CRISTINA STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 106.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 106.9 West. Cristina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion is expected
to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the
cyclone will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and
Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto



Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

First light satellite images show that the convective organization
of Cristina is gradually improving, while banding features are
developing across the northern portion of the circulation. The
center remains underneath the northeastern side of the main area of
convection due to moderate shear, but this shear appears to be
diminishing. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt,
which is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB.

Cristina turned to the northwest and slowed down to about 10 kt this
morning. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected to occur
later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to continue for
the next few days as the cyclone is steered by a large ridge
centered over the southwestern United States. Later in the forecast
period, a turn to the west is expected as the weakening cyclone
becomes steered by the low-level easterlies. The track guidance is
tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the middle of
the envelope.

The decreasing shear over Cristina combined with warm SSTs and a
moist air mass should allow the cyclone to intensify over the next
couple of days. After that time, the system will cross over the 26
C isotherm and enter into a drier and more stable atmospheric
environment. This should cause a steady weakening trend to begin
after 48 h. Although the forecast still shows Cristina as a tropical
storm in 5 days, it is possible all of the deep convection would
have dissipated by that time. The latest NHC forecast is very close
to the intensity consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 106.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 18.5N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 20.2N 119.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 21.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 21.5N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[Kingarabian]

Yeah if it had a CCC there would be no very limited banding and much lower cloud temps.

Well LLC sorta became exposed again. Convection building over it again. Just needs to find a sweet spot...

[hurricanes1234]

I think the most we'll see out of this is 70 knots, if we're lucky.

But then again, it's always when I openly lower my expectations that storms overachieve, so maybe I shouldn't say anything.

[aspen]

Yeah if it had a CCC there would be no very limited banding and much lower cloud temps.

Well LLC sorta became exposed again. Convection building over it again. Just needs to find a sweet spot...

At this rate, there won’t be a sweet spot for this annoyingly picky system. Tomorrow will be the last day for it to do anything; the more time it wastes, the less likely it’ll be able to take advantage of a favorable environment.

[Yellow Evan]

Convection is increasing over the center. Probably becoming better stacked.

[cycloneye]

New peak 70 kts.

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

Cristina is having some difficulty this afternoon in maintaining
deep convection over its center. Briefly, the low-level center
became apparent via GOES-16 visible imagery just north of its main
convective mass. This exposed center was also confirmed by a 1756Z
37 GHz color image from the GPM satellite.

The more-easily-observed center allows for a confident assessment of
its northwest motion at 11 kt. Cristina should turn back to the
west-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed tomorrow as a
broad mid-level ridge builds north of the tropical storm. That
motion should continue for the next few days until Cristina turns to
the west and accelerates slightly as its remnant low is steered by
the near-surface trade winds. The global and hurricane dynamical
models are in close agreement on this forecast track, which is
slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward
initial position of Cristina.

The Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB not changing at
18Z as well as the partially exposed center indicate that
the earlier intensification has temporarily ceased. A 50-kt
maximum wind remains the current intensity, though the ASCAT-A pass
and SATCON satellite consensus suggests that this may be somewhat
generous.

Conditions are quite conducive for intensification in the short
term, as SSTs are above 28C, mid-level humidity is near 75 percent,
and deep tropospheric vertical shear is only 5-10 kt. However, the
SSTs are already cooling along the track of Cristina and it should
pass over the 27C SST isotherm in about 36-48 hours. After 48
hours, the thermodynamic components quickly become hostile for
the system. The statistical and mesoscale hurricane models have
backed off some more and the peak intensity has been lowered
slightly compared to the previous advisory. It does appear that
the opportunity for Cristina to rapidly intensify is diminishing.
Cristina is expected to become a remnant low in four to five days,
once deep convection ceases.

The aforementioned ASCAT-A scatterometer pass confirmed the rather
small size - 60 nm maximum wind radii in the southeastern quadrant
- of Cristina this afternoon. Only a modest increase in size is
expected over the next couple of days based on the RVCN consensus
technique.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.0N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 19.8N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 21.1N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[hurricanes1234]

Lol will we even get a hurricane out of this? :-p