ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheProfessor]

I hate it when I botch a post and accidentally delete everything. Haha. This would have been more detailed, but whatever. Lowest pressure at surface reporting stations (NWS) I could find was 29.84 in Galliano, LA near where the NHC has Landfall. It's NW of Grand Isle and NE of Cocodrie. I hit several reporting stations to its east and to its west (Destin, Pensacola, Mobile, Pascagoula, Slidell, Kenner, Galliano, New Iberia, Lake Charles). Pressures were highest on the eastern and western edges and gradually lowered as you moved inward toward Galliano. It also had a pretty decent .13mb fall from yesterday's noon reading 29.84 from 29.97. Noted that the pressure in Lake Charles is lower than Pascagoula (29.92) or Gulfport (29.90) or Slidell (29.89). Split the middle, and pressures currently indicate landfall where it's supposed to happen.

Besides all the observations I lost, the other point in the post was that none of the recent models dropped pressure more than 3-4mb from the central Gulf to Landfall. I think the lowest I remember seeing the last couple of days might have been 985 or 984. I don't think it'll get that low, but 988/989 would be about right.

I will have to disagree with northjaxpro a little on this though. No way this has peaked. We'll have some pulses tonight at DMAX and then maybe around ladfall tomorrow. But the models prog it to drop pressure up to the great lakes before embedding in that upper trough. Joe B also mentioned that he thought conditions would be ripest in Arkansas structure wise. So we'll have to wait and see.

Steve, I may be wrong. It certainly would not be the first time and I respect your disagreement. Yeah, it coùld try to intensify prior to.landfall, but I favor the odds of it not at this point. Dry air has really choked this system, which I thought could happen last night and it has indeed.

Will monitor, as everyone on the Gulf Coast should in the event it does try to strengthen prior to landfall.

Strengthening may not be the right word, the storm may stay around 50 mph, perhaps get up to 60. However, the trend in the models has been for the core to become better organized and the stronger winds to occur closer to the core. In this case the dry air would actually be helping the storm break away from the large feeder band where the strongest winds currently are. This isn't a guarantee but it's certainly a possibility. If the storm does this early on then it could intensify before landfall.

[Frank P]

Still appears to be moving north on the vis sat loops, could have taken a slight jog to the NNE last couple of frames..more convection continues to try to wrap around the naked center.. most I’ve seen thus far today.. if he can maintain till tonight I think he has a shot of getting stronger, perhaps a top end TS at best though.. hard to argue against the NHC forecast and current model data.. Not really expecting anything significant on the beach in Biloxi..

[tropicwatch]

Getting our first rain here in Panama City.

[Steve]

For sure man. It’s just a gentleman’s disagreement. Having said that I don’t think it will get much stronger. I just don’t think it’s peaked yet for this phase of the system. Most of the depiction models (haven’t looked at the hurricane ones today as they’ve been erratic) indicate a pulse up and some tightening around landfall. Maybe it will happen or not. But I think it’s mostly plateaued with perhaps another drop of 3mb between now and tomorrow night.

[northjaxpro]

Professor you made my point. I will favor the odds of this not significantly strengthening going forward. I have been wrong before, like many of us in this business. However, one rule of thumb I always keep in the foremost of my mind: Never say the word "never" with all things weather, especially concerning tropical cyclones! I have been doing this far too long to ever do this!

[HurryKane]

I hate it when I botch a post and accidentally delete everything. Haha. This would have been more detailed, but whatever. Lowest pressure at land surface reporting stations (NWS) I could find was 29.84 in Galliano, LA near where the NHC has Landfall. It's NW of Grand Isle and NE of Cocodrie. I hit several reporting stations to its east and to its west (Destin, Pensacola, Mobile, Pascagoula, Slidell, Kenner, Galliano, New Iberia, Lake Charles). Pressures were highest on the eastern and western edges and gradually lowered as you moved inward toward Galliano. It also had a pretty decent .13mb fall from yesterday's noon reading 29.84 from 29.97. Noted that the pressure in Lake Charles is lower than Pascagoula (29.92) or Gulfport (29.90) or Slidell (29.89). Split the middle, and pressures currently indicate landfall where it's supposed to happen.

Besides all the observations I lost, the other point in the post was that none of the recent models dropped pressure more than 3-4mb from the central Gulf to Landfall. I think the lowest I remember seeing the last couple of days might have been 985 or 984. I don't think it'll get that low, but 988/989 would be about right.

I will have to disagree with northjaxpro a little on this though. No way this has peaked. We'll have some pulses tonight at DMAX and then maybe around ladfall tomorrow. But the models prog it to drop pressure up to the great lakes before embedding in that upper trough. Joe B also mentioned that he thought conditions would be ripest in Arkansas structure wise. So we'll have to wait and see.

Steve, it’s been a long long time since we interacted (probably a decade or so), but over the years I have always appreciated your posts. Cheers!

[cycloneye]

FYI= There is a thread at the top with a sticky about reporting the weather in the areas of impact. Also Web Cams, Videos and Photos can be posted.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=120923&p=2806202#p2806202

[MississippiWx]

The area near the center is slowly but surely becoming more cloud-filled. The environment near the center is moistening and we will probably begin to see a little more convection near the center as we head through the evening and overnight. If models are to be believed, tomorrow afternoon should be the best opportunity for convection to get going near and over the center.

[Stormcenter]

Steve my thoughts are the same as yours.....I don’t
believe it has peaked yet.

For sure man. It’s just a gentleman’s disagreement. Having said that I don’t think it will get much stronger. I just don’t think it’s peaked yet for this phase of the system. Most of the depiction models (haven’t looked at the hurricane ones today as they’ve been erratic) indicate a pulse up and some tightening around landfall. Maybe it will happen or not. But I think it’s mostly plateaued with perhaps another drop of 3mb between now and tomorrow night.

[wxman57]

I measured a northerly motion of 21 nm (23 miles) over the past 2 hrs.

[psyclone]

It looks like the mega band east of the storm is losing enough longitude with time that it may reach the west coast of florida later on. Hopefully it weakens. in the meantime showers and storms continue to refire to the east and some of these have been exhibiting some rotation. River flooding is going to be an issue in addition to urban and short term flash flooding over the near term..

[Dean4Storms]

A little wind gust (25mph) here between Panama City Beach and Destin with some heavy rain as it moved in just now.

[Dean4Storms]

The center should just about pass right over this oil rig, just wish it had a barometer reading....
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KATP

[hurricanehunter69]

Visible is starting to look goood….Watch out, this storm is making a run at tightening up. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL032020

[Jr0d]

Like many disorganized systems, the biggest impacts will be well to the right of the center. I do think there is a decent chance the center will become better organized overnight and up to landfall, and will be a sub 990 system, but it will still be a lopsided system and the winds likely will not have time to respond to the pressure drop before landfall.

It is still a decent early June storm and we can't help but wonder what it could have done if it remained over water.

[FixySLN]

Visible is starting to look goood….Watch out, this storm is making a run at tightening up. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL032020

Little Wobble to the east? #WobbleWatching

[wx98]

Looks like it has wobbled over to the east of 90W, a slight NNE jog.

[Steve]

Visible is starting to look goood….Watch out, this storm is making a run at tightening up. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL032020

Little Wobble to the east? #WobbleWatching

Sometimes it does, sometimes it wobbles west. Center is slightly elongated and is spinning within the circulation. It's pretty much running up 90W and is almost right smack at 90/25 per that visible.

IR shows cloud tops warming off away from the center and pretty much everywhere which you'd expect this time of day. Last night, it started pulsing up in the early evening, and there was another blow-up around 1am Central. I didn't watch it overnight, so I don't know if there were ebbs and flows then. I'm actually glad for this at the moment because I wouldn't want that feed line coming right in on us. 2 bands so far and hopefully just a slow trickle until it's on.

[FixySLN]

Visible is starting to look goood….Watch out, this storm is making a run at tightening up. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL032020

Little Wobble to the east? #WobbleWatching

Sometimes it does, sometimes it wobbles west. Center is slightly elongated and is spinning within the circulation. It's pretty much running up 90W and is almost right smack at 90/25 per that visible.

IR shows cloud tops warming off away from the center and pretty much everywhere which you'd expect this time of day. Last night, it started pulsing up in the early evening, and there was another blow-up around 1am Central. I didn't watch it overnight, so I don't know if there were ebbs and flows then. I'm actually glad for this at the moment because I wouldn't want that feed line coming right in on us. 2 bands so far and hopefully just a slow trickle until it's on.

My first of many "thanks Steve" this season.

[Steve]

For sure. The way it's turning and how the center is positioned, it actually looks to be about 89.9. If there is a wobble, which you know there will be, check the next 2 or 3 frames. Sometimes that's enough to confirm. Then as you know, some storms rotate like a tilted top, so more of a coil shaped track. Those are the funnest to wobble watch.