ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PavelGaborik10]

How much Sally is able to organize herself today and how quickly she stacks will determine how strong she gets before landfall. If the LLC and MLC stack quicker by this afternoon or tonight, a Cat 2/3 is on the table. If the centers stack really late, she might never become a hurricane. Timing is critical when a storm like this is mere days from landfall.

A cat 2 should come to fruition at this stage. I hardly believe that is a "worse case scenario" right now personally. Could it be the most realistic? Yeah, I would think so. I certainly hope we don't see a cat 3/4 monster breaking ashore.

The issue is, it will be on the upswing in intensity. And that is really a problem for incoming systems cause you do not know how intense of a system you will end up with.

I certainly agree. I just hope we don't see a major out of her.

[Blown Away]

The HWRF has been so consistent with this becoming a formidable hurricane. Sometimes, it will have one wacky run and go back to what it was originally showing. We will find out in a few hours if it has truly changed its tone to a weaker system.

I think all the recent model runs keep Sally in 990-1000 mb, that usually is strong TS - Cat 1 range.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe the 06z HWRF lends more credence as Sally is still looking like a hot mess this morning.

https://twitter.com/tarcweather/status/1305121401628774400

Didn't you link a tweet an hour ago saying to not discount a significant hurricane even if it doesn't intensify much today??

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Yes, today will be telling. If Sally can get better organized and intensify today then a hurricane or even a formidable hurricane is not out of question. But if Sally still is struggling tonight a Tropical Storm might be the outcome.

[MississippiWx]

I see no obvious signs of northerly shear impacting the storm now. Outflow is expanding in all quadrants. Sally will have to start taking advantage of that soon.

[eastcoastFL]

The HWRF has been so consistent with this becoming a formidable hurricane. Sometimes, it will have one wacky run and go back to what it was originally showing. We will find out in a few hours if it has truly changed its tone to a weaker system.

Seems like it’s a whacky run. It initialized are 1003mb and it’s at 996mb already. Hwrf doesn’t show it getting down to the current pressure for a full 24 hours. Definitely seems off.

[caneman]

She has a long way to go. Core isn't coming together quickly. I dont see more than a high end t.s. or minimal hurricane. Time doesn't seem on her side.. Unless she stalls.

[GCANE]

New high-helicity hot tower going up with strong rain rate.
Anti-cyclone is moving north into Sally's track.
Sally will be tracking into it.
Intensification is a given when a TC tracks into an anticyclone.

[eastcoastFL]

She’s not looking bad on visible this morning. She’s still in the early phase of formation but once she gets there she could get going quick. She is more impressive than just 6-12 hours ago but still has a long way to go. Time will tell.

[MississippiWx]

The obvious difference between the 6z HWRF and all the other runs is the inability to stack low and mid-level circulations until it gets closer to landfall. This has always been the failure mode for Sally. The HWRF has been showing this happening earlier until the 6z run while other models show this happening later. HWRF may be joining the party late. We will see.

[eastcoastFL]

She has a long way to go. Core isn't coming together quickly. I dont see more than a high end t.s. or minimal hurricane. Time doesn't seem on her side.. Unless she stalls.

She’s got another 40-50 hours left over water. That’s more than enough time to make a run if she’s going to. Just look back and how much Laura intensified in just 24 hours. It was like night and day.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1305133936666972161

[ElectricStorm]

She has a long way to go. Core isn't coming together quickly. I dont see more than a high end t.s. or minimal hurricane. Time doesn't seem on her side.. Unless she stalls.

The experts at the NHC are calling for a cat 2 at landfall. She certainly has enough time to become significant

[JayTX]

Regardless of her strength at landfall looks like the rain may be a major issue regardless. Those rain events do not get the attention or warning needed in my experience.
Going thru a couple of hurricanes Rita and Ike was one thing. Watching the rain water move past your stakes closer to your house for 2 days and 2 nights for Harvey then Imelda was on another level.

[Blown Away]

Sally popping convection on the NE quad, but the W half of circulation is exposed or thin cloud cover.

[cheezyWXguy]

Visible satellite suggests the shear is no longer an issue. Convection approaching the center is venting anticyclonically

[GCANE]

IR imagery showing a warm-core signature from the hot tower.

[GCANE]

Whoa!!!
Massive CAPE increase in the core. 5000!!!

[GCANE]

Cirrus layering from the hot tower.
Building a CDO

[gfsperpendicular]

This is coming together really fast. The anticyclone seems to have strengthened almost directly on top of it, too:

[BigB0882]

Does Baton Rouge have much to be concerned about? It seems clear we will stay to the west but almost all model pics in that thread are a snapshot of landfall. I know in the past it was landfalling and then hooking sharp to the NE. Is this still the case or is it coming in further west?