ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

NHC updated min. pressure to 977 mb

[CrazyC83]

NHC updated min. pressure to 977 mb

Yep based on Josh's report and a WeatherFlow site.

[ElectricStorm]

This thing is hauling. Looks to already be at least a third of the way across on IR. Not much time to disrupt that core...

[skyline385]

This thing is hauling. Looks to already be at least a third of the way across on IR. Not much time to disrupt that core...

0Z HWRF had it crossing the peninsula with its core pretty much intact. So its very much a possibility.

[JamesRainier]

This thing is hauling. Looks to already be at least a third of the way across on IR. Not much time to disrupt that core...

Yep.

[Shell Mound]

Models are showing Zeta steadily intensifying in the gulf and not weakening before the 2nd landfall. Really thought the conditions in the gulf would be much more hostile for a tropical cyclone.

Probably the dynamical models show intensification because Zeta is paralleling the shear-based vectors, like Michael (2018), with outflow established.

[SconnieCane]

This thing is hauling. Looks to already be at least a third of the way across on IR. Not much time to disrupt that core...

0Z HWRF had it crossing the peninsula with its core pretty much intact. So its very much a possibility.

Of course, the other side of the coin is, less time over the favorable water conditions to re-intensify.

[Iceresistance]

Now at 70 mph

[GCANE]

Over land and convection firing on top of the CoC.
Outflow is improving by the minute.
Due in large part by being in the middle of the ARWB as indicated by the close proximity of the anti-cyclone.
Outflow is moistening the GoM. CAPE already at 4000.
Also pushing back the Rossby Wave.
Will have major implications on intensity and track changes.
Going to hit the water running.

[GCANE]

Very impressive feeder-band in place.

[GCANE]

Kermit on the way in.
They're not wasting any time intercepting this when it hits the water.

[3090]

May see a slight shift to the west at the 10am advisory on the landfall, as latest models have nudged more to the west. We’ll see.

I find it interesting, as Zeta actually looks far better hsving crossed the YP than Delta looked, for whatever reason. And Delta was a CAT 4 heading into the YP.

[3090]

Very impressive feeder-band in place.

https://i.imgur.com/sfJLAKS.png

Very impressive structure, for a hurricane 1) this time of year and 2) while crossing the YP. Almost scary, when you think about it. This would be during peak of season, we could be looking at a high end CAT 5.

[Keldeo1997]

Its not to often you see a Upper level environment as good as this in Late October in the GOM

[Alacane3]

Over land and convection firing on top of the CoC.
Outflow is improving by the minute.
Due in large part by being in the middle of the ARWB as indicated by the close proximity of the anti-cyclone.
Outflow is moistening the GoM. CAPE already at 4000.
Also pushing back the Rossby Wave.
Will have major implications on intensity and track changes.
Going to hit the water running.

What are your thoughts on the intensity track changes? Further east/west? How about intensity?

[GCANE]

Over land and convection firing on top of the CoC.
Outflow is improving by the minute.
Due in large part by being in the middle of the ARWB as indicated by the close proximity of the anti-cyclone.
Outflow is moistening the GoM. CAPE already at 4000.
Also pushing back the Rossby Wave.
Will have major implications on intensity and track changes.
Going to hit the water running.

What are your thoughts on the intensity track changes? Further east/west? How about intensity?

With it pushing back the Rossby Wave, good chance the track will be more west.
Also, a better chance intensity will be higher than currently anticipated.

[aspen]

If this somehow becomes another major in the Gulf, I will eat my hat. Yes, SSTs are warm and other conditions are exceptionally favorable for so late in the year, but this is a storm that just got its core messed up by landfall, and it’s late October. I will be very surprised if this becomes a Cat3, but it’s 2020...

[NDG]

Is a good thing is over land right now, otherwise it would had been a Cat 2 by now, what an amazing presentation over land. A lot of people in SE LA and MS gulf coast are not thinking much about Zeta, that's an unfortunate position for them to take. I have told my family members in Nola to prepare for Cat 2 conditions, the good thing worst winds will last only a couple of hours or so.

[GCANE]

Recon indicates its over the water
996mb extrap
54 knt SFMR
AF300 on the runway

[kevin]

If this somehow becomes another major in the Gulf, I will eat my hat. Yes, SSTs are warm and other conditions are exceptionally favorable for so late in the year, but this is a storm that just got its core messed up by landfall, and it’s late October. I will be very surprised if this becomes a Cat3, but it’s 2020...

I think a cat 2 will be its peak, which would still be extremely impressive in the Gulf this late in the season. But for far out predictions or uncertain predictions due to a recent landfall I always use an error margin of +/- 1 category so I do think a cat 3 is on the table, but unlikely. But even if doesn't become a cat 3, a cat 1 or 2 in the Gulf in late October is also certainly very impressiuve.