ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[tailgater]

It’s been a while since I have been this clueless about what the NHC was gonna say in their Discussion/Track/intensity.

[Steve]

There is no doubt in my mind with the data from Recon and satellite imagery showing a very defined eye that Marco is a hurricane and an intensifying one at that!

Maybe? It's close and it looks like it's headed that way for now. But those small systems can be weird like you and everyone else has been saying. Just as fast as they spin up, they can wind down. It's going to be a cool system to track coming up through the Gulf.

[CyclonicFury]

There is no doubt in my mind with the data from Recon and satellite imagery showing a very defined eye that Marco is a hurricane and an intensifying one at that!

The highest SFMR so far has only been 57 knots, likely not a hurricane yet.

[Highteeld]

dropped 1 mb from last pass, down to 992

[ThetaE]

Dropsonde found 992 mb with 4 kt winds.

[aspen]

55 kt/992 mbar from the NHC, forecast to become a hurricane today and peak at 75 kt.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297185603780517893

[Steve]

It’s been a while since I have been this clueless about what the NHC was gonna say in their Discussion/Track/intensity.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1454.shtml

Headline is "Marco is strengthening quickly and forecast to become a hurricane today."

[HurricaneBrain]

I think the 11AM path is the most reasonable solution shown thus far. Most of the Louisiana coast is going to feel impacts as Marco heads west. Not buying a TexMex solution at all.

[Extratropical94]

You don't get to see entangled forecast tracks like these very often

[Aric Dunn]

look at all the north adjustments.. nhc must really dislike this storm lol

it just does not want to follow the rules..

[Highteeld]

look at all the north adjustments.. nhc must really dislike this storm lol

it just does not want to follow the rules..

https://i.ibb.co/FB0KQBL/8.gif

reminds me a bit of michael in its early stages with the track being well east of the cone

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297185603780517893

They are going in for another pass, which will hopefully put them through the area of max winds.

[Tireman4]

It’s been a while since I have been this clueless about what the NHC was gonna say in their Discussion/Track/intensity.

I agree. We have been around these parts a LONG time and have seen a LOT of systems...I agree...2020 is special like that...

[northjaxpro]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297185603780517893

They are going in for another pass, which will hopefully put them through the area of max winds.

I think they will find winds sufficient to upgrade to hurricane on this pass. We shall see. I will be surprised if they do not.

[Visioen]

You don't get to see entangled forecast tracks like these very often
https://i.imgur.com/rrqZV6R.png

Are there social distancing rules for TCs in place?

[TheDreamTraveler]

I love how many people were writing off Marco lastnight. Now that it got named and is intensifying all eyes are on it. Another interesting thing is Marco isn't going to have land interaction with the Yukatan anymore...it's in a favorable environment currently but that's going to change in the coming days until it gets closer to the coast. Wondering how strong it can stay because this will end up effecting Laura in some way.

Another thing too now that Marco is stronger it has a higher chance of effecting more parts of the gulf coast than it did before since stronger storms move more poleward.

Also wondering if the small size of Marco was part of why models didn't see this intensification?

[Raebie]

With 2 storms in the Gulf, any idea what that's going to mean for the surge?

[TheDreamTraveler]

With 2 storms in the Gulf, any idea what that's going to mean for the surge?

That all depends on how strong both of them are. Can't say more until then especially with how uncertain we've all been on both of these systems

[northjaxpro]

I love how many people were writing off Marco lastnight. Now that it got named and is intensifying all eyes are on it. Another interesting thing is Marco isn't going to have land interaction with the Yukatan anymore...it's in a favorable environment currently but that's going to change in the coming days until it gets closer to the coast. Wondering how strong it can stay because this will end up effecting Laura in some way

A very good possibility. The global models are notorious in havindg difficulty handling the dynamics of very small tropiçal cyclones like Marco. Heck , we have seen several of these small cyclones this year with Fay , Gonzalo and now this one. All were initially poorly picked up by the reliable global models.