WPAC: HAISHEN - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

Looks like a banding eye is forming on EIR. Personal Dvorak fix would be T4.5. JMA’s one likely 1T too low.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Hmmm JMA calls for a violent peak

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 September>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N25°05' (25.1°)
E131°05' (131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 185 km (100 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)

[euro6208]

Looks like it's ready to bomb out.

[aspen]

Looks like it's ready to bomb out.

https://i.imgur.com/ihUNNnu.gif

Decent structure, but Haishen needs to start firing off some massive hot towers before I consider it ready for RI.

[Hayabusa]

South Korea

[Hayabusa]

They upped the peak winds

TY 2010 (Haishen)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 2 September 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 2 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°00' (20.0°)
E139°25' (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 3 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N21°25' (21.4°)
E135°55' (135.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 210 km (115 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 4 September>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N23°05' (23.1°)
E132°55' (132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 5 September>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N25°50' (25.8°)
E130°55' (130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 185 km (100 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 6 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N31°35' (31.6°)
E128°40' (128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 460 km (250 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 7 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N40°35' (40.6°)
E126°25' (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

[aspen]

Still working on its eyewall.

[Hayabusa]

[Meteophile]

 https://twitter.com/Meteophile1/status/1301281068784418817

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/Meteophile1/status/1301281068784418817?s=19

Now it finally looks like it’s ready to bomb out. Cloud tops are also colder than -75C to -80C, and CIMSS MIMIC imagery shows a dominant eyewall taking over instead of a couple of competing partial eyewalls like the microwave pass I posted a few hours ago.

The WPac has had a thing with absurdly intense typhoons whose names start with “Ha” — Haiyan, Hagupit, Hagibis, and Halong. Will Haishen join them?

[Hayabusa]

HWRF 18Z goes into a 53 mb drop in 24 hours

[aspen]

Looks like a pinhole eye is trying to develop, but some strong outer bands could be posing a problem.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like a pinhole eye is trying to develop, but some strong outer bands could be posing a problem.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp11/amsusr89/2020wp11_amsusr89_202009021910.gif

Pinhole eye... Haishen trying to go full on Hagibis mode over there
Man the WPAC sure loves it's H storms

[aspen]

Looks like a pinhole eye is trying to develop, but some strong outer bands could be posing a problem.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp11/amsusr89/2020wp11_amsusr89_202009021910.gif

Pinhole eye... Haishen trying to go full on Hagibis mode over there
Man the WPAC sure loves it's H storms

It’s not quite as tiny as Hagibis’ eye, but it’s seemingly a pinhole, and it’s showing up on visible. However, that outer band is causing a partial moat on the NE quadrant and will probably impede RI or ERI by potentially messing with Haishen’s structure. It needs to go if Haishen really wants to be like Hagibis.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1301320417408360448

[aspen]

Looks like the pinhole eye is getting replaced by a normal sized eye.

[euro6208]

11W HAISHEN 200903 0000 20.2N 138.5E WPAC 85 972

[euro6208]

Peak intensity increased to 130 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH AN INCIPIENT
RAGGED EYE FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. A 030007Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE, PRESENCE OF A CYAN RING IN
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND EMERGENCE OF A PINHOLE EYE IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUGGEST AN IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES
(30-31C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE 02/1200Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AND WESTERN
JAPAN WITH A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
A COL REGION IS POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND NORTHEAST OF
OKINAWA WITH MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER OKINAWA REFLECTING THE
POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TY 11W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS TRACKING TOWARD THE COL REGION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND REMAIN STATIONARY OVER JAPAN
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA. TY 11W WILL TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE BREAK (COL) IN THE
STR ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 70NM
AT TAU 72...CURRENTLY ALL TRACKERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF OKINAWA. THE 02/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWS ALL
SOLUTIONS EAST OF OKINAWA. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS
EXPECTED AT TAU 36, HOWEVER, THE PEAK MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK, WHICH COULD SHIFT
EASTWARD CLOSER TO KYUSHU--THE BULK OF THE 02/12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ARE CLUSTERED FROM 129-131E NEAR KYUSHU. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 120 WHEN IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER NORTH KOREA.
OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

VIS and IR shows Haishen is undergoing a quick eyewall replacement cycle.