ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

Besides a lackluster convection, there’s not much going up against this invest. It could still bring in the moisture ahead of it and get things going. We shall see.

Fairly intense swirl to the west of it is likely inhibiting things, either it's interacting with the wave to the west or simply too entangled in the ITCZ to get going.

[ronjon]

Surprised by the pessimism in this thread. Wave looks pretty good imo - tightening circulation, building convection. NHC agrees.

Yes and the further west this wave gets before it develops,means more trouble for someone concerning a potential landfall in US, islands, or central america.

[Craters]

Mid-August has pretty consistently been disappointing in recent years so not too surprising. I should wake up in late May to watch the inevitable subtropical storm then, and return to hibernating until at least August 20 lol

But just think of all the perfection in model performance and name pronunciation you would have missed with Isaias!

[Craters]

I stumbled across this site a little while ago, and I figured that some of you Storm2K folks might not have found it yet:

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

It's a more interactive version of a typical spaghetti-plot site, and tracking 95L with it might be good practice before things get a lot more hectic.

[HuracanMaster]

Right on Hammy, convection firing up as the blob to the west diminishes.

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[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands has changed little in organization since yesterday.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for development to occur, and a tropical depression could
form during the next couple of days while the disturbance moves
generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for development by the end of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

[HuracanMaster]

If convection can sustain itsell and spread from those hot towers we may have a td by tomorrow.

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[Nimbus]

Convection flare up this evening is near the center of the slow rotation, down around 12N. SAL is up near 14 or 15N and is being moistened by the wave further west. GFS keeps it a TD till north of the islands, although it could dry up near 45-50 west with even moderate SAL shear. Still 60% chance of a TD which would increase with convection persistence and model run consensus.

[HuracanMaster]

Near identical convection bursts in both 95L and african offshore wave.

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[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2020081100, , BEST, 0, 108N, 354W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

At 0000 UTC, 11 August 2020, DISTURBANCE INVEST 95 (AL95) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 10.8°N and 35.4°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 15 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[HuracanMaster]

Better sat pic of tanden convection burst and Godzilla currently over Africa....

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[drezee]

Don't look now...

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1292987496591171584

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1292999254936637441

[Aric Dunn]

I will have to say that is some deep cold towers.. CDO is becoming very circular.. It has to sustain overnight and off we go..

[bob rulz]

Hard to imagine NHC won't bump up the odds at 2.

Hopefully we can get a new ASCAT pass soon, hard to tell if a LLC is developing underneath that blob.

[HuracanMaster]

Its coalesing quite nicely, if it can keep the convection going is off to the races.

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[EquusStorm]

That burst is not only getting a little bigger but seems to be concentrated with very deepest towers in a tiny little area on the east side; if an LLC is trying to develop under that this could be a TS in 12-18 hours honestly imo if convection doesn't collapse. Highly impressive at the moment and well on the way to at least TD... if that holds. Hard to say.

[xironman]

NHC likes the convection

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a large low pressure system
located more than 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
has increased and become a little better organized over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development to occur, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves westward
to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by
the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[abajan]

NHC likes the convection

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a large low pressure system
located more than 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
has increased and become a little better organized over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development to occur, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves westward
to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by
the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[EquusStorm]

Highly impressive if that convective pattern holds; an LLC developing under that deepest part on the NE side would have us a TD by morning probably